摩根大通分析師預測比特幣在減半前下跌

摩根大通分析師預測，在 4 月減半事件之前，比特幣 (BTC) 價格將進一步下跌。他們將此歸因於市場超買、ETF 現貨流入量下降以及投資者獲利了結。分析師表示，減半後比特幣價格可能會跌至 42,000 美元，因為挖礦獎勵的減少將降低生產成本。

Bitcoin's Slide to Continue Ahead of Halving, JP Morgan Analysts Say

摩根大通分析師表示，比特幣減半前將持續下滑

In the wake of Bitcoin's recent descent from its early-month highs, JP Morgan analysts are sounding the alarm, predicting further price declines.

在比特幣最近從月初高點下跌之後，摩根大通分析師拉響了警報，預測價格將進一步下跌。

Is Bitcoin Overbought?

比特幣是否超買？

JP Morgan analysts have been keeping a keen eye on the futures market, and they believe Bitcoin is currently overbought. They point to the premium of futures prices over spot prices and the high level of positioning in futures markets as evidence of this overbought condition.

摩根大通分析師一直密切關注期貨市場，他們認為比特幣目前已經超買。他們指出，期貨價格相對於現貨價格的溢價以及期貨市場的高部位是這種超買狀況的證據。

Outflows From Bitcoin ETFs

比特幣 ETF 資金流出

Another factor supporting their bearish view is the decline in Bitcoin spot ETFs. Since March 18, there have been net outflows from BTC ETFs, with the largest single-day net outflow of $320 million occurring on March 19.

支持他們看跌觀點的另一個因素是比特幣現貨 ETF 的下跌。自3月18日以來，BTC ETF出現淨流出，其中最大單日淨流出發生在3月19日，達3.2億美元。

Halving Jitters

緊張感減半

Adding fuel to the fire is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024. Halving events have historically been associated with increased price volatility and speculation. Analysts believe that investors who have profited from the recent surge are likely to cash out ahead of the halving, further driving down the price.

定於 2024 年 4 月舉行的比特幣減半將火上澆油。從歷史上看，減半事件與價格波動和投機加劇有關。分析師認為，從近期飆升中獲利的投資人可能會在減半前套現，進一步壓低價格。

Target Price of $42,000

目標價 42,000 美元

JP Morgan analysts have gone so far as to predict that BTC prices could drop to $42,000 after the halving. This forecast is based on their analysis of Bitcoin's production costs, also known as mining costs.

摩根大通分析師甚至預測減半後 BTC 價格可能會跌至 42,000 美元。這項預測是基於他們對比特幣生產成本（也稱為挖礦成本）的分析。

Production Costs as a Floor

生產成本作為底線

Analysts have observed that the production cost of Bitcoin has historically served as a lower bound for its price. In other words, BTC's price tends to remain above the cost incurred by miners in producing new coins.

分析師觀察到，比特幣的生產成本歷來是其價格的下限。換句話說，比特幣的價格往往保持在礦工生產新幣的成本之上。

Halving to Lower Costs

減半以降低成本

With the halving reducing mining rewards, analysts estimate that the cost of producing Bitcoin will fall to around $42,000. This analysis suggests that BTC's price could decline to this level and represent the new lower bound based on mining costs.

隨著挖礦獎勵減半，分析師估計比特幣的生產成本將降至 42,000 美元左右。該分析表明，比特幣的價格可能會跌至這一水平，並代表基於採礦成本的新下限。

Conclusion

結論

While Bitcoin's future is always uncertain, JP Morgan analysts are betting on further price declines. The overbought condition, outflows from BTC ETFs, and the upcoming halving event are all factors that they believe will continue to weigh on the cryptocurrency's value.

儘管比特幣的未來始終不確定，但摩根大通分析師押注價格將進一步下跌。他們認為，超買狀況、BTC ETF 資金流出以及即將到來的減半事件將繼續影響加密貨幣的價值。