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不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和即将到来的[美国]大选可能会加剧“贬值贸易”,从而有利于黄金和比特币
Investors are turning toward gold and Bitcoin ( BTC ) in a so-called “debasement trade” as they prepare for a “catastrophic scenario” amid rising geopolitical tensions, an Oct. 3 report by JPMorgan claims.
摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 10 月 3 日的一份报告称,投资者正在通过所谓的“贬值交易”转向黄金和比特币 (BTC),因为他们正在为地缘政治紧张局势加剧的“灾难性场景”做准备。
Rising tensions and the upcoming U.S. election are likely to drive the ‘debasement trade,’ favoring both gold and Bitcoin, the report, which was shared by JPMorgan with Cointelegraph, states.
摩根大通与 Cointelegraph 分享的这份报告指出,日益紧张的局势和即将到来的美国大选可能会推动“贬值交易”,有利于黄金和比特币。
The so-called ‘debasement trade’ is a spike in gold demand caused by factors ranging from “structurally higher geopolitical uncertainty since 2022, to persistent high uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about […] persistently high government deficits across major economies,” among others, according to JPMorgan.
所谓的“贬值贸易”是指黄金需求激增,其原因包括“2022年以来结构性地缘政治不确定性上升,长期通胀背景的持续高度不确定性,以及对各国政府赤字持续高企的担忧”。摩根大通表示,“主要经济体”。
Spiking open interest on BTC futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) suggests “speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds might see gold and Bitcoin as similar assets,” the report states.
报告指出,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)比特币期货的未平仓合约激增表明“对冲基金等投机机构投资者可能会将黄金和比特币视为类似的资产”。
Net open interest on CME BTC futures has risen from around 10,000 contracts at the start of 2024 to over 40,000 as of Oct. 1.
截至 10 月 1 日,CME BTC 期货的净未平仓合约已从 2024 年初的约 10,000 份合约增加到超过 40,000 份合约。
“In addition, the fact that Bitcoin [exchange-traded funds] started seeing inflows again in September after an outflow in August suggests that retail investors might also see gold and Bitcoin in a similar fashion,” the report adds.
报告补充道:“此外,比特币(交易所交易基金)继 8 月份流出之后,9 月份再次开始流入,这表明散户投资者也可能以类似的方式看待黄金和比特币。”
Crypto ETFs saw inflows of over $20 billion in 2024, according to data from fund researcher Morningstar.
根据基金研究机构晨星 (Morningstar) 的数据,加密 ETF 的流入量在 2024 年将超过 200 亿美元。
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved spot BTC and Ether ( ETH ) ETFs in January and July, respectively.
美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 最终分别于 1 月和 7 月批准了现货 BTC 和以太坊 (ETH) ETF。
The ‘debasement trade’ could be further fueled if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
如果共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普赢得 11 月份的美国总统大选,“贬值贸易”可能会进一步加剧。
“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of Bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the “debasement trade” both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (“debt debasement”),” the report states.
“特别是特朗普的胜利,除了从监管角度支持比特币之外,还可能通过关税(地缘政治紧张局势)和扩张性财政政策(“债务贬值”)强化“贬值贸易”,”报告指出。
Trump has courted the crypto industry with promises to “fire” the SEC’s chair, Gary Gensler, and to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”
特朗普向加密行业示好,承诺“解雇”美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler),并使美国成为“世界加密之都”。
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