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不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢和即將到來的[美國]大選可能會加劇“貶值貿易”,從而有利於黃金和比特幣
Investors are turning toward gold and Bitcoin ( BTC ) in a so-called “debasement trade” as they prepare for a “catastrophic scenario” amid rising geopolitical tensions, an Oct. 3 report by JPMorgan claims.
摩根大通(JPMorgan) 10 月3 日的一份報告稱,投資者正在透過所謂的「貶值交易」轉向黃金和比特幣(BTC),因為他們正在為地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的「災難性場景」做準備。
Rising tensions and the upcoming U.S. election are likely to drive the ‘debasement trade,’ favoring both gold and Bitcoin, the report, which was shared by JPMorgan with Cointelegraph, states.
摩根大通與 Cointelegraph 分享的這份報告指出,日益緊張的局勢和即將到來的美國大選可能會推動“貶值交易”,有利於黃金和比特幣。
The so-called ‘debasement trade’ is a spike in gold demand caused by factors ranging from “structurally higher geopolitical uncertainty since 2022, to persistent high uncertainty about the longer-term inflation backdrop, to concerns about […] persistently high government deficits across major economies,” among others, according to JPMorgan.
所謂的「貶值貿易」是指黃金需求激增,原因包括「自2022年以來結構性地緣政治不確定性上升,長期通膨背景的持續高度不確定性,以及對各國政府赤字持續高企的擔憂」。大通表示,「主要經濟體」。
Spiking open interest on BTC futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) suggests “speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds might see gold and Bitcoin as similar assets,” the report states.
報告指出,芝加哥商品交易所(CME)比特幣期貨的未平倉合約激增表明「對沖基金等投機機構投資者可能會將黃金和比特幣視為類似的資產」。
Net open interest on CME BTC futures has risen from around 10,000 contracts at the start of 2024 to over 40,000 as of Oct. 1.
截至 10 月 1 日,CME BTC 期貨的淨未平倉合約已從 2024 年初的約 10,000 份合約增加到超過 40,000 份合約。
“In addition, the fact that Bitcoin [exchange-traded funds] started seeing inflows again in September after an outflow in August suggests that retail investors might also see gold and Bitcoin in a similar fashion,” the report adds.
報告補充說:“此外,比特幣(交易所交易基金)繼 8 月流出之後,9 月再次開始流入,這表明散戶投資者也可能以類似的方式看待黃金和比特幣。”
Crypto ETFs saw inflows of over $20 billion in 2024, according to data from fund researcher Morningstar.
根據基金研究機構晨星 (Morningstar) 的數據,加密 ETF 的流入量在 2024 年將超過 200 億美元。
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved spot BTC and Ether ( ETH ) ETFs in January and July, respectively.
美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 最終分別於 1 月和 7 月批准了現貨 BTC 和以太坊 (ETH) ETF。
The ‘debasement trade’ could be further fueled if Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November.
如果共和黨總統候選人唐納德·川普贏得 11 月的美國總統大選,「貶值貿易」可能會進一步加劇。
“A Trump win in particular, apart from being supportive of Bitcoin from a regulatory point of view, would likely reinforce the “debasement trade” both via tariffs (geopolitical tensions) and via an expansionary fiscal policy (“debt debasement”),” the report states.
「特別是川普的勝利,除了從監管角度支持比特幣之外,還可能透過關稅(地緣政治緊張局勢)和擴張性財政政策(「債務貶值」)強化「貶值貿易”,」報告指出。
Trump has courted the crypto industry with promises to “fire” the SEC’s chair, Gary Gensler, and to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”
川普向加密產業示好,承諾「解僱」美國證券交易委員會主席加里‧詹斯勒(Gary Gensler),並使美國成為「世界加密之都」。
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