机构逃离比特币引发危险信号

比特币现货 ETF 的大量资金流出以及美国存款信托与清算公司 (DTCC) 决定取消基于加密货币的 ETF 的抵押品价值，引发了人们对比特币价格稳定性和机构投资者情绪的担忧。 DTCC 的举措可能会导致流动性减少并增加投资者的风险。因此，比特币现货 ETF 的吸引力可能会降低，可能引发抛售和资本迁移到黄金或注重隐私的加密货币等另类投资。

Institutional Exodus from Bitcoin: ETFs Outflows and DTCC Collateral Denial Raise Alarm Bells

机构逃离比特币：ETF 流出和 DTCC 抵押品拒绝敲响警钟

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a significant shift in sentiment as institutional investors, who were previously driving Bitcoin's meteoric rise, are now initiating a sell-off. Concurrently, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a crucial player in the financial ecosystem, has announced that it will cease to recognize Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as collateral for loans, effective April 30, 2024.

加密货币市场的情绪正在发生重大转变，之前推动比特币迅速上涨的机构投资者现在开始抛售。与此同时，金融生态系统中的重要参与者美国存款信托与清算公司 (DTCC) 宣布，自 2024 年 4 月 30 日起，将不再承认比特币和其他加密货币作为贷款抵押品。

ETF Outflows: A Red Flag for Bitcoin

ETF 流出：比特币的危险信号

Since their approval in February, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a major attraction for institutional investors. These ETFs provide a regulated and accessible way to invest in the world's largest cryptocurrency. However, a concerning trend has emerged in recent days: Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced outflows for three consecutive days, totaling $421.8 million.

自二月份获得批准以来，比特币现货交易所交易基金（ETF）一直是机构投资者的主要吸引力。这些 ETF 提供了一种受监管且易于访问的方式来投资全球最大的加密货币。然而，近日出现了一个令人担忧的趋势：比特币现货ETF连续三天出现资金流出，总计4.218亿美元。

The outflows have been particularly pronounced in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which had been a major beneficiary of institutional inflows. The ETF's recent interruption of its 71-day inflow streak has raised eyebrows among market analysts.

贝莱德旗下的 iShares 比特币信托公司 (IBIT) 的资金外流尤其明显，该公司一直是机构资金流入的主要受益者。该 ETF 最近中断了 71 天的资金连续流入，引起了市场分析师的关注。

DTCC Collateral Denial: A Major Setback

DTCC 抵押品被拒：重大挫折

The DTCC's decision to deny collateral value for Bitcoin- and crypto-based ETFs is a significant development that could further deter institutional investment in the asset class. The DTCC, along with its subsidiary the Depository Trust Company (DTC), plays a pivotal role in the US financial system by providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for securities transactions. The DTC holds trillions of dollars in securities and acts as a central depository, facilitating collateral management and trade settlements.

DTCC 决定拒绝为基于比特币和加密货币的 ETF 提供抵押品价值，这是一项重大进展，可能会进一步阻止机构对该资产类别的投资。 DTCC 及其子公司存款信托公司 (DTC) 通过为证券交易提供托管、清算和结算服务，在美国金融体系中发挥着举足轻重的作用。 DTC 持有数万亿美元的证券，并充当中央保管机构，促进抵押品管理和贸易结算。

The DTCC's decision means that ETFs investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be subject to a 100% "haircut," making them unattractive as collateral for loans and other financial transactions. This move effectively limits the viability of Bitcoin spot ETFs as investment vehicles for institutional investors.

DTCC 的决定意味着投资比特币和其他加密货币的 ETF 将受到 100% 的“折扣”，这使得它们作为贷款和其他金融交易的抵押品失去吸引力。此举有效限制了比特币现货 ETF 作为机构投资者投资工具的可行性。

Implications for Bitcoin Price

对比特币价格的影响

The combination of ETF outflows and the DTCC's collateral denial has cast a bearish shadow over Bitcoin's price trajectory. Analysts believe that the sell-off from institutional investors could lead to a potential migration of capital from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies or financial products that offer greater liquidity and flexibility.

ETF 资金流出和 DTCC 拒绝抵押品的结合给比特币的价格轨迹蒙上了看跌阴影。分析师认为，机构投资者的抛售可能导致资金从比特币转向其他加密货币或提供更大流动性和灵活性的金融产品。

Bitcoin has been trading within a range of $14,300 since early March, with $59,500 and $73,800 serving as key support and resistance levels, respectively. The recent price action suggests that Bitcoin may be forming a downtrend, potentially testing the lower end of the range.

自 3 月初以来，比特币一直在 14,300 美元区间内交易，其中 59,500 美元和 73,800 美元分别作为关键支撑位和阻力位。最近的价格走势表明，比特币可能正在形成下降趋势，可能会测试该区间的下限。

Alternative Cryptocurrency Destinations

替代加密货币目的地

The developments in the Bitcoin market may prompt institutional investors to seek alternative cryptocurrencies that offer greater privacy, lower transaction fees, or more compatibility with institutional processes.

比特币市场的发展可能会促使机构投资者寻求可提供更大隐私、更低交易费用或与机构流程更具兼容性的替代加密货币。

• Privacy-focused cryptocurrencies such as Monero (XMR) could benefit from the FBI's recent seizure of the Samourai Wallet, which has raised concerns about the privacy of Bitcoin transactions.
• Low- and zero-fee cryptocurrencies such as Nano (XNO), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), and Litecoin (LTC) could attract investors seeking to avoid the high transaction fees currently associated with Bitcoin.
• Layer-1 blockchains like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Radix (XRD) could attract institutional interest due to their potential for tokenizing real-world assets, a growing area of interest for investors.

Conclusion

注重隐私的加密货币，如 Monero (XMR) 可能会受益于 FBI 最近扣押 Samourai 钱包，这引发了人们对比特币交易隐私的担忧。低费用和零费用的加密货币，如 Nano (XNO)、比特币现金 ( BCH）和莱特币（LTC）可以吸引寻求避免目前与比特币相关的高额交易费用的投资者。以太坊（ETH）、Solana（SOL）和 Radix（XRD）等 Layer-1 区块链可能会吸引机构的兴趣，因为它们现实世界资产代币化的潜力是投资者日益感兴趣的领域。结论

The institutional exodus from Bitcoin, amplified by the DTCC's collateral denial, has created a bearish sentiment in the market. Investors should proceed with caution and closely monitor the developments surrounding Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies. The volatility and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency space necessitate a prudent approach, with a focus on assessing individual risk tolerance and investment goals.

机构投资者纷纷撤离比特币，DTCC 拒绝提供抵押品，加剧了市场的看跌情绪。投资者应谨慎行事，并密切关注比特币和替代加密货币的发展。加密货币领域的波动性和不确定性需要采取谨慎的态度，重点是评估个人的风险承受能力和投资目标。