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这种超过预期的通货膨胀印刷促进了风险的胃口,因为交易者现在看到美联储(美联储)在今年晚些时候降低了税率的可能性。
US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for February showed that inflation eased to 2.8%, a positive surprise as it is below the expected 2.9% Year over Year (YoY).
2月的美国CPI(消费者价格指数)数据显示,通货膨胀率降低到2.8%,这是一个积极的惊喜,因为它低于预期的2.9%同比(YOY)。
This softer-than-expected inflation print boosted risk appetite, as traders now see an increased probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) later in the year.
这种超过预期的通货膨胀印刷促进了风险的胃口,因为交易者现在看到美联储(美联储)在今年晚些时候降低了税率的可能性。
US CPI Below Expectations at 2.8%
美国CPI低于预期的2.8%
Bitcoin (BTC) responded with a modest upward move, jumping to $83,371. The surge comes as lower inflation reduces the likelihood of further tightening and supports risk-on sentiment. Stock markets also reacted positively, with major indices posting gains following the release.
比特币(BTC)以适度的向上响应,跃升至83,371美元。由于通货膨胀率降低了进一步收紧并支持风险情绪的可能性。股票市场也做出了积极的反应,发布后主要指数发布了收益。
While inflation cooled in February, the Core CPI came in at 3.1% YoY, also beating estimates of 3.2%. Core inflation excludes volatile items like food and energy. Notably, this marks the first decline in headline and Core CPI since July 2024 and suggests inflation is cooling down in the US.
尽管通货膨胀在2月份冷却,但CORE CPI的率是3.1%,也比估计值为3.2%。核心通货膨胀排除了诸如食品和能源之类的挥发性物品。值得注意的是,这标志着自2024年7月以来的标题和核心CPI的首次下降,并表明通货膨胀在美国正在冷却。
If inflation continues to trend lower, the Fed could shift to a more dovish stance, potentially opening the door to more liquidity entering the markets. Meanwhile, the reaction for traditional assets was as expected, with the US dollar and Japanese yen dropping.
如果通货膨胀率继续下降,美联储可能会转向更加艰难的立场,有可能为进入市场的更多流动性打开大门。同时,对传统资产的反应是预期的,美元和日元下降。
“Both overall and core are down! This clearly raises expectations for a decrease in interest rates. Both interest rates and the dollar/yen exchange rate responded with declines. This will be positive for stock prices,” an analyst on X observed.
“整体和核心都在下降!这显然提高了人们对利率下降的期望。利率和美元/日元汇率都随着下降而响应。这将对股票价格有利,” X分析师观察到。
Some analysts are taking these inflation numbers with a pinch of salt, as Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices.
一些分析师正在用少许盐来采用这些通货膨胀数量,因为唐纳德·特朗普的贸易关税可能会导致更高的消费价格。
Notwithstanding, many analysts view the latest inflation data as a tailwind for Bitcoin, which has historically benefited from easier monetary conditions. Now, all eyes are on the Fed’s upcoming policy guidance as traders look for confirmation that the path to rate cuts is opening up.
尽管如此,许多分析师将最新的通货膨胀数据视为比特币的逆风,这在历史上从更容易的货币条件中受益。现在,随着交易者寻求确认削减速度的确认,所有人的目光都注视着美联储即将到来的政策指导。
“A high print would not be very welcomed (as usual). Especially during uncertain times in the market like now, this kind of economic data usually has an increased impact. A high number would likely move the bond yields back up which is the opposite of what the administration is seemingly trying to achieve currently. Then there’s also FOMC next week and the Fed will definitely be looking at this CPI print as well,” analyst Daan Crypto Trades remarked.
“像往常一样,高印刷品不会受到欢迎。特别是在像现在这样不确定的市场时期,这种经济数据通常会增加影响。大量数量可能会移动债券收益率,这与政府目前似乎试图实现的目标相反。然后下周还有FOMC,美联储一定也会看这款CPI印刷品。”分析师Daan Crypto Trades说。
Meanwhile, this CPI data comes after a good JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report on Tuesday, which gave the market a reason to stop falling. Notably, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the US central bank would take a cautious approach to monetary policy easing, adding that the economy currently “continues to be in a good place.”
同时,此CPI数据是在周二的良好震撼(职位空缺和劳动力转移调查)报告之后,这使市场有理由停止下降。值得注意的是,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周五表示,美国央行将采取谨慎的措施来减轻货币政策,并补充说,目前的经济“继续处于一个好地方”。
According to data from the CME Fedwatch tool, markets are betting on a cut in interest rates at the Fed’s next meeting.
根据CME FedWatch工具的数据,市场正在押注美联储下次会议上的利率降低。
“Inflation just came in at 2.8% which is lower than expectations. The real number is even lower. The Fed should cut rates immediately,” chimed Anthony Pompliano, the founder of Professional Capital Management.
通货膨胀率为2.8%,低于预期。实际数字甚至更低。美联储应立即降低利率。
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