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基督教。军事扩张主义者。银行家。即将上任的日本首相石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)的履历并不是很多人对神道教和佛教盛行、宪法规定的和平日本的首相所期待的。
Shigeru Ishiba, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, was elected as the next prime minister of Japan on Sept. 27, 2024. However, Ishiba's previous role as defense minister and his support for higher taxes and government spending could pose challenges for cryptocurrency enthusiasts in the country.
自民党成员石破茂于 2024 年 9 月 27 日当选为日本下一任首相。然而,石破茂之前担任防卫大臣的角色以及他对提高税收和政府支出的支持可能会给加密货币爱好者带来挑战在国内。
Christian. Military expansionist. Banker.
基督教。军事扩张主义者。银行家。
Incoming Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba’s resumé isn’t one many might expect from a prime minister in Shintoist- and Buddhist-populated, constitutionally peaceful Japan. The LDP politician and former defense minister will succeed Fumio Kishida in helming the Japanese political machine as of Oct. 1, after a Sept. 27 vote.
即将上任的日本首相石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)的履历并不是很多人对神道教和佛教盛行、宪法规定的和平日本的首相所期待的。经过9月27日的投票后,自民党政治家、前防卫大臣将于10月1日接替岸田文雄执掌日本政治机器。
Ishiba’s stated goals in general? — jack up taxes on investments and income, and increase military power.
石破的总体目标是? ——提高投资和收入税,并增强军事力量。
Ishiba’s plan signals continuing crypto damage in Japan
Ishiba 的计划标志着日本加密货币的持续破坏
Tokyo is a strange juxtaposition of forces when it comes to cryptocurrency. The same can be said for Japan as a whole. The original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin’s (ostensibly) pseudonymous creator, of peer-to-peer (P2P) electronic cash used freely without going through banks, remains alive and well in trading groups, at local businesses, and meetups.
就加密货币而言,东京是一个奇怪的并列力量。对于整个日本来说也是如此。比特币(表面上)的假名创造者中本聪最初的愿景是无需通过银行即可自由使用点对点(P2P)电子现金,这一愿景在交易团体、当地企业和聚会中依然活跃。
But on the regulated side of things, Japan’s government has been the target of hot criticism in recent years, with massive taxes on crypto assets and the outlawing of privacy coins on exchanges. Still, trading of crypto on centralized exchanges is said to have surged in 2024.
但在监管方面,日本政府近年来一直受到严厉批评,对加密资产征收巨额税,并禁止交易所使用隐私币。尽管如此,据说中心化交易所的加密货币交易量在 2024 年仍然激增。
With former prime minster Fumio Kishida now headed for the door, what could an Ishiba administration mean? For one: higher taxes on income and crypto investments.
前首相岸田文雄即将下台,石破茂政府意味着什么?其一:对收入和加密投资征收更高的税。
Ishiba has stated that he wants to strengthen income and investment taxes, exempting from this general invasion those who invest via state-approved programs such as NISA (the Nippon Individual Savings Account), a limited tax-free investment program for approved assets which does not yet include cryptocurrencies (aside from approved ETF investments).
石破茂表示,他希望加强所得税和投资税,使那些通过国家批准的计划(例如 NISA(日本个人储蓄账户))进行投资的人免受这种普遍的侵犯。NISA(日本个人储蓄账户)是一项针对批准资产的有限免税投资计划,该计划不但包括加密货币(除经批准的 ETF 投资外)。
“I have no intention whatsoever of raising taxes on those who have increased their income through the new NISA,” Ishiba noted.
“我无意对那些通过新 NISA 增加收入的人增税,”石破指出。
Still, echoing globally dominant U.S.-style economics, the new PM wants to increase defense spending, raise the minimum wage in Japan, and escape deflation, all of which mean, in very basic terms: yen printer go brrrrrrrrr.
尽管如此,新任首相仍呼应全球主导的美国式经济,希望增加国防开支,提高日本的最低工资,并摆脱通货紧缩,所有这些用非常基本的术语来说都意味着:日元印钞机开始“brrrrrrrrr”。
While fiat currency failure, painful taxation, and devaluation once were commonly thought a boon to crypto users hedging against such events, greater centralization of markets and abandonment of the P2P ethos has led to fears for mainstream holders. One Japanese user of X wondered aloud: “Will the talk of tax easing for crypto go ahead if Ishiba is the president?”
虽然法定货币失败、痛苦的税收和贬值一度被普遍认为对冲此类事件的加密货币用户来说是福音,但市场的进一步集中化和 P2P 精神的放弃导致了主流持有者的担忧。 X 的一位日本用户大声问道:“如果 Ishiba 担任总统,有关加密货币减税的讨论还会继续吗?”
Other users of the social media platform seemed to be holding out hope for a so-called crypto-friendly Ishiba administration.
该社交媒体平台的其他用户似乎对所谓的加密货币友好型石破茂政府抱有希望。
The Nikkei index notably took a sharp nosedive after the election.
选举后日经指数明显大幅下跌。
Militarist Ishiba’s thoughts on Bitcoin unclear, bland advice for BOJ
军国主义者石破茂对比特币的看法不明确,给日本央行的建议平淡无奇
Unlike his predecessor Kishida, Ishiba has yet to offer lip service to crypto at massive tech conferences, and is apparently focused more on the traditional economy and defense-related matters.
与他的前任岸田不同,石破茂尚未在大型科技会议上对加密货币做出口头承诺,而且显然更关注传统经济和国防相关事务。
The former banker and Tottori politician has infamously called for military defectors or draft evaders (assuming conscription in Japan is reinstated, a position he has supported) to face the maximum possible punishment. He has further voiced strong support for forming an Asian version of NATO and revising the pacifist portions of Japan’s constitution, citing ostensible missile attacks and threats from North Korea.
这位前银行家和鸟取政客臭名昭著地呼吁军队叛逃者或逃兵者(假设日本恢复征兵制,他支持这一立场)面临最严厉的惩罚。他还以表面上的导弹袭击和朝鲜的威胁为由,进一步表示强烈支持组建亚洲版的北约,并修改日本宪法的和平部分。
Ishiba is also known for facilitating the “first-ever deployment of Japanese troops abroad without a UN Security Council authorization to Iraq in 2003.”
石破还因促成“2003年日本首次在未经联合国安理会授权的情况下向伊拉克部署军队”而闻名。
While rampant militarism and expansionist arms policies might not seem to connect to crypto on the surface, greater unification with the U.S. war machine and ties to conflicts in the Middle East related to Israel could spell drastic effects on the market.
虽然猖獗的军国主义和扩张主义武器政策表面上似乎与加密货币无关,但与美国战争机器的更大统一以及与以色列有关的中东冲突的联系可能会对市场产生巨大影响。
This not to mention a wider crackdown on crypto in Japan, as infamous parties like the DPRK’s “Lazarus Group” would be set up to become ever more prominent scapegoats under Ishiba’s eye, equating to even stricter know- your-customer (KYC) policies for the average exchange user.
更不用说日本对加密货币进行更广泛的打击,因为像朝鲜的“Lazarus Group”这样臭名昭著的团体将在 Ishiba 的眼中成为更加突出的替罪羊,相当于更严格的了解你的客户(KYC)政策平均交换用户。
Still, when it comes to fiscal policy, Shigeru Ishiba’s positions are muddy.
不过,在财政政策方面,石破茂的立场却很模糊。
Sure, a segment of Japanese investors are relieved a more fiscally liberal opponent did not enter office, but Ishiba still favors “accommodative” and loose monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, while presumably supporting the BOJ’s recent hawkish moves to battle inflation. Something of an effective “nothing-burger” for residents of the land of
当然,一部分日本投资者对财政上更加自由的对手没有上台感到松了口气,但石破茂仍然赞成日本央行“宽松”的货币政策,同时可能支持日本央行最近对抗通胀的鹰派举措。对于这片土地上的居民来说,这是一种有效的“无汉堡”
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