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基督教。軍事擴張主義者。銀行家。即將上任的日本首相石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)的履歷並不是許多人對神道教和佛教盛行、憲法規定的和平日本的首相所期待的。
Shigeru Ishiba, a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, was elected as the next prime minister of Japan on Sept. 27, 2024. However, Ishiba's previous role as defense minister and his support for higher taxes and government spending could pose challenges for cryptocurrency enthusiasts in the country.
自民黨成員石破茂於 2024 年 9 月 27 日當選為日本下一任首相。 。
Christian. Military expansionist. Banker.
基督教。軍事擴張主義者。銀行家。
Incoming Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba’s resumé isn’t one many might expect from a prime minister in Shintoist- and Buddhist-populated, constitutionally peaceful Japan. The LDP politician and former defense minister will succeed Fumio Kishida in helming the Japanese political machine as of Oct. 1, after a Sept. 27 vote.
即將上任的日本首相石破茂(Shigeru Ishiba)的履歷並不是許多人對神道教和佛教盛行、憲法規定的和平日本的首相所期待的。經過9月27日的投票後,自民黨政治家、前防衛大臣將於10月1日接替岸田文雄執掌日本政治機器。
Ishiba’s stated goals in general? — jack up taxes on investments and income, and increase military power.
石破的總體目標是? ——提高投資和所得稅,並增強軍事力量。
Ishiba’s plan signals continuing crypto damage in Japan
Ishiba 的計劃標誌著日本加密貨幣的持續破壞
Tokyo is a strange juxtaposition of forces when it comes to cryptocurrency. The same can be said for Japan as a whole. The original vision of Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin’s (ostensibly) pseudonymous creator, of peer-to-peer (P2P) electronic cash used freely without going through banks, remains alive and well in trading groups, at local businesses, and meetups.
就加密貨幣而言,東京是一個奇怪的並列力量。對於整個日本來說也是如此。比特幣(表面上)的假名創造者中本聰最初的願景是無需透過銀行即可自由使用點對點(P2P)電子現金,這一願景在交易團體、當地企業和聚會中依然活躍。
But on the regulated side of things, Japan’s government has been the target of hot criticism in recent years, with massive taxes on crypto assets and the outlawing of privacy coins on exchanges. Still, trading of crypto on centralized exchanges is said to have surged in 2024.
但在監管方面,日本政府近年來一直受到嚴厲批評,對加密資產徵收巨額稅,並禁止交易所使用隱私幣。儘管如此,據說中心化交易所的加密貨幣交易量在 2024 年仍然激增。
With former prime minster Fumio Kishida now headed for the door, what could an Ishiba administration mean? For one: higher taxes on income and crypto investments.
前首相岸田文雄即將下台,石破茂政府意味著什麼?其一:對收入和加密投資徵收更高的稅。
Ishiba has stated that he wants to strengthen income and investment taxes, exempting from this general invasion those who invest via state-approved programs such as NISA (the Nippon Individual Savings Account), a limited tax-free investment program for approved assets which does not yet include cryptocurrencies (aside from approved ETF investments).
石破茂表示,他希望加強所得稅和投資稅,使那些透過國家批准的計劃(例如NISA(日本個人儲蓄帳戶))進行投資的人免受這種普遍的侵犯。項針對核准資產的有限免稅投資計劃,該計劃不但包括加密貨幣(除經批准的 ETF 投資外)。
“I have no intention whatsoever of raising taxes on those who have increased their income through the new NISA,” Ishiba noted.
「我無意對那些透過新 NISA 增加收入的人增稅,」石破指出。
Still, echoing globally dominant U.S.-style economics, the new PM wants to increase defense spending, raise the minimum wage in Japan, and escape deflation, all of which mean, in very basic terms: yen printer go brrrrrrrrr.
儘管如此,新任首相仍呼應全球主導的美國式經濟,希望增加國防開支,提高日本的最低工資,並擺脫通貨緊縮,所有這些用非常基本的術語來說都意味著:日元印鈔機開始“ brrrrrrrrr」。
While fiat currency failure, painful taxation, and devaluation once were commonly thought a boon to crypto users hedging against such events, greater centralization of markets and abandonment of the P2P ethos has led to fears for mainstream holders. One Japanese user of X wondered aloud: “Will the talk of tax easing for crypto go ahead if Ishiba is the president?”
雖然法定貨幣失敗、痛苦的稅收和貶值一度被普遍認為對沖此類事件的加密貨幣用戶來說是福音,但市場的進一步集中化和 P2P 精神的放棄導致了主流持有者的擔憂。 X 的一位日本用戶大聲問道:“如果 Ishiba 擔任總統,有關加密貨幣減稅的討論還會繼續嗎?”
Other users of the social media platform seemed to be holding out hope for a so-called crypto-friendly Ishiba administration.
該社群媒體平台的其他用戶似乎對所謂的加密貨幣友善石破茂政府抱持希望。
The Nikkei index notably took a sharp nosedive after the election.
選舉後日經指數明顯大幅下跌。
Militarist Ishiba’s thoughts on Bitcoin unclear, bland advice for BOJ
軍國主義者石破茂對比特幣的看法不明確,給日本央行的建議平淡無奇
Unlike his predecessor Kishida, Ishiba has yet to offer lip service to crypto at massive tech conferences, and is apparently focused more on the traditional economy and defense-related matters.
與他的前任岸田不同,石破茂尚未在大型科技會議上對加密貨幣做出口頭承諾,顯然更關注傳統經濟和國防相關事務。
The former banker and Tottori politician has infamously called for military defectors or draft evaders (assuming conscription in Japan is reinstated, a position he has supported) to face the maximum possible punishment. He has further voiced strong support for forming an Asian version of NATO and revising the pacifist portions of Japan’s constitution, citing ostensible missile attacks and threats from North Korea.
這位前銀行家和鳥取政客臭名昭著地呼籲軍隊叛逃者或逃兵者(假設日本恢復徵兵制,他支持這一立場)面臨最嚴厲的懲罰。他也以表面上的飛彈攻擊和北韓的威脅為由,進一步表示強烈支持組成亞洲版的北約,並修改日本憲法的和平部分。
Ishiba is also known for facilitating the “first-ever deployment of Japanese troops abroad without a UN Security Council authorization to Iraq in 2003.”
石破也因促成「2003年日本首次在未經聯合國安理會授權的情況下向伊拉克部署軍隊」而聞名。
While rampant militarism and expansionist arms policies might not seem to connect to crypto on the surface, greater unification with the U.S. war machine and ties to conflicts in the Middle East related to Israel could spell drastic effects on the market.
雖然猖獗的軍國主義和擴張主義武器政策表面上似乎與加密貨幣無關,但與美國戰爭機器的更大統一性以及與以色列有關的中東衝突的聯繫可能會對市場產生巨大影響。
This not to mention a wider crackdown on crypto in Japan, as infamous parties like the DPRK’s “Lazarus Group” would be set up to become ever more prominent scapegoats under Ishiba’s eye, equating to even stricter know- your-customer (KYC) policies for the average exchange user.
更不用說日本對加密貨幣進行更廣泛的打擊,因為像北韓的「Lazarus Group」這樣臭名昭著的團體將在 Ishiba 的眼中成為更加突出的替罪羊,相當於更嚴格的了解你的客戶(KYC)政策平均交換用戶。
Still, when it comes to fiscal policy, Shigeru Ishiba’s positions are muddy.
不過,在財政政策方面,石破茂的立場卻很模糊。
Sure, a segment of Japanese investors are relieved a more fiscally liberal opponent did not enter office, but Ishiba still favors “accommodative” and loose monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, while presumably supporting the BOJ’s recent hawkish moves to battle inflation. Something of an effective “nothing-burger” for residents of the land of
當然,一部分日本投資者對財政上更自由的對手沒有上台感到鬆了口氣,但石破茂仍然贊成日本央行「寬鬆」的貨幣政策,同時可能支持日本央行最近對抗通膨的鷹派舉措。對於這片土地上的居民來說,這是一種有效的“無漢堡”
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