海斯的BTC前景

在中期，一些宏观经济因素（主要是缓解通货膨胀和增加的全球流动性）将支持比特币。

Some macroeconomic factors (mainly the easing of inflation and increased global liquidity) will play in favor of Bitcoin in the medium term.

在中期，一些宏观经济因素（主要是通货膨胀和全球流动性增加）将有利于比特币。

This is according to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and a point of reference for the crypto community, who has once again spoken out on social media, stating that the chances of seeing a new ATH for BTC at around $110k are greater than a new drop towards $76k.

这是根据Bitmex的创始人Arthur Hayes的说法，也是Crypto社区的参考点，他再次在社交媒体上发表了讲话，并指出，看到BTC的新ATH售价为11万美元左右的机会大于$ 76K的新投资。

BTC’s performance over the past two weeks appears to be fueling new optimism among investors, and the weekly close above $86k leaves room for further upside after a difficult Q1 2025.

BTC在过去两周中的表现似乎在投资者中引起了新的乐观情绪，在艰难的第一季度2025年，每周关闭86,000美元以上的$ 8.6万美元的空间。

“I bet BTC will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k,” said Hayes, who is optimistic about the chances of this scenario unfolding, adding that the Fed is changing its policy on Quantitative Tightening (QT), and tariffs will not be critical due to “transitory inflation”.

海斯说：“我敢打赌，BTC将在重新测试$ 76.5k之前达到11万美元。”海斯对这种情况的机会感到乐观，他补充说，美联储正在改变其定量收紧（QT）的政策，并且由于“暂时膨胀”，关税并不是关键的。

And if BTC really does manage to reach $110k, according to Hayes, then “we shouldn’t look back until it reaches $250k”.

而且，如果BTC确实设法达到了11万美元，那么Hayes表示，“我们不应该回头直到达到25万美元”。

I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k.

我敢打赌，$ btc的价格为$ 110k，然后重新测试$ 76.5k。

Y? The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter cause "transitory inflation". JAYPOW told me so.

是的？美联储从QT到量化宽松的国债。关税无关紧要，原因是“暂时通货膨胀”。杰普（Jaypow）告诉我。

I’ll expound on that in my next essay, that’s the TLDR for your TikTok peanut brain.

我将在下一篇文章中阐述这一点，这是您Tiktok花生大脑的TLDR。

The transition from a policy of quantitative tightening (QT) to one of quantitative easing (QE) would be fundamental, as the Fed would become involved in a new capital injection through the purchase of bonds to lower interest rates.

从定量收紧（QT）到定量宽松（QE）的政策的过渡将是基本的，因为美联储通过购买债券以降低利率来参与新的资本注入。

The QT phase, i.e. the reduction of the balance sheet by selling bonds, as already seen last week, would not yet be interrupted for other analysts, but there is a change of approach in the air.

QT阶段，即通过出售债券来减少资产负债表，正如上周已经看到的，其他分析师尚未中断，但空中的方法发生了变化。

A new phase of QE would be well-received by investors, also in light of past events. In 2020, for example, this dynamic caused an increase in the price of BTC of over 1,000%.

鉴于过去的事件，投资者将受到投资者的好评。例如，在2020年，这种动态导致BTC的价格上涨超过1,000％。

Having always treated the crypto community well with his bullish forecasts, as reported in recent months, Hayes had also warned his followers of a possible sharp correction in BTC at the beginning of 2025. In this new phase, however, the conditions for a new rise are being created.

正如最近几个月报道的那样，海耶斯（Hayes）始终以他的看涨预测对加密货币社区进行了很好的对待。