海斯的BTC前景

在中期，一些宏觀經濟因素（主要是緩解通貨膨脹和增加的全球流動性）將支持比特幣。

Some macroeconomic factors (mainly the easing of inflation and increased global liquidity) will play in favor of Bitcoin in the medium term.

在中期，一些宏觀經濟因素（主要是通貨膨脹和全球流動性增加）將有利於比特幣。

This is according to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX and a point of reference for the crypto community, who has once again spoken out on social media, stating that the chances of seeing a new ATH for BTC at around $110k are greater than a new drop towards $76k.

這是根據Bitmex的創始人Arthur Hayes的說法，也是Crypto社區的參考點，他再次在社交媒體上發表了講話，並指出，看到BTC的新ATH售價為11萬美元左右的機會大於$ 76K的新投資。

BTC’s performance over the past two weeks appears to be fueling new optimism among investors, and the weekly close above $86k leaves room for further upside after a difficult Q1 2025.

BTC在過去兩周中的表現似乎在投資者中引起了新的樂觀情緒，在艱難的第一季度2025年，每週關閉86,000美元以上的$ 8.6萬美元的空間。

“I bet BTC will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k,” said Hayes, who is optimistic about the chances of this scenario unfolding, adding that the Fed is changing its policy on Quantitative Tightening (QT), and tariffs will not be critical due to “transitory inflation”.

海斯說：“我敢打賭，BTC將在重新測試$ 76.5k之前達到11萬美元。”海斯對這種情況的機會感到樂觀，他補充說，美聯儲正在改變其定量收緊（QT）的政策，並且由於“暫時膨脹”，關稅並不是關鍵的。

And if BTC really does manage to reach $110k, according to Hayes, then “we shouldn’t look back until it reaches $250k”.

而且，如果BTC確實設法達到了11萬美元，那麼Hayes表示，“我們不應該回頭直到達到25萬美元”。

I bet $BTC hits $110k before it retests $76.5k.

我敢打賭，$ btc的價格為$ 110k，然後重新測試$ 76.5k。

Y? The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries. And tariffs don’t matter cause "transitory inflation". JAYPOW told me so.

是的？美聯儲從QT到量化寬鬆的國債。關稅無關緊要，原因是“暫時通貨膨脹”。傑普（Jaypow）告訴我。

I’ll expound on that in my next essay, that’s the TLDR for your TikTok peanut brain.

我將在下一篇文章中闡述這一點，這是您Tiktok花生大腦的TLDR。

The transition from a policy of quantitative tightening (QT) to one of quantitative easing (QE) would be fundamental, as the Fed would become involved in a new capital injection through the purchase of bonds to lower interest rates.

從定量收緊（QT）到定量寬鬆（QE）的政策的過渡將是基本的，因為美聯儲通過購買債券以降低利率來參與新的資本注入。

The QT phase, i.e. the reduction of the balance sheet by selling bonds, as already seen last week, would not yet be interrupted for other analysts, but there is a change of approach in the air.

QT階段，即通過出售債券來減少資產負債表，正如上週已經看到的，其他分析師尚未中斷，但空中的方法發生了變化。

A new phase of QE would be well-received by investors, also in light of past events. In 2020, for example, this dynamic caused an increase in the price of BTC of over 1,000%.

鑑於過去的事件，投資者將受到投資者的好評。例如，在2020年，這種動態導致BTC的價格上漲超過1,000％。

Having always treated the crypto community well with his bullish forecasts, as reported in recent months, Hayes had also warned his followers of a possible sharp correction in BTC at the beginning of 2025. In this new phase, however, the conditions for a new rise are being created.

正如最近幾個月報導的那樣，海耶斯（Hayes）始終以他的看漲預測對加密貨幣社區進行了很好的對待。