黄金的复出可以为比特币繁荣铺平道路吗？

卢克·格罗门（Luke Gromen）是宏观经济界的著名声音，正在浮出水面，它可以通过全球市场荡漾：如果黄金作为定居资产重新出名

Luke Gromen, a noted voice in macroeconomic analysis, is posing a thought-provoking scenario that could have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency markets.

卢克·格罗门（Luke Gromen）是宏观经济分析中著名的声音，正在提出一个令人发人深省的场景，可能对加密货币市场具有深远的影响。

If gold is once again used as a primary settlement asset, could Bitcoin follow closely behind?

如果再次将黄金用作主要的和解资产，那么比特币可以紧随其后吗？

According to Gromen, the possibility is greater than one might think, and it ties into a broader economic strategy being deployed by Washington.

格罗门认为，这种可能性比人们想象的要大，它与华盛顿部署的更广泛的经济战略联系在一起。

As the U.S. focuses on rebuilding its domestic industries, a major point of contention arises—how will this strategy square off with the existing system of exporting dollars and Treasuries to balance global trade?

当美国专注于重建其国内行业时，出现了一个主要的争论点 - 该战略是否会与现有的出口美元和国债的系统相吻合，以平衡全球贸易？

If the nation is serious about making things within its own borders again, then that system will need to be dismantled or at least overhauled, presenting a significant undertaking.

如果国家再次认真对待自己的边界内的事物，那么该系统将需要拆除或至少大修，这是一项重大的工作。

However, if we zoom out further, there’s a sliver of good news. In a surprising move, former President Trump did not place tariffs on gold despite imposing them on a wide range of goods. This decision might not be as trivial as it seems.

但是，如果我们进一步缩小，那么有很多好消息。令人惊讶的举动，前总统特朗普尽管将其强加于广泛的商品，但并未将关税纳入黄金。这个决定可能并不像看起来那么小。

If capital is being diverted towards gold, then this could be an early indication of a broader capital flow.

如果资本转向黄金，那么这可能是更广泛的资本流动的早期迹象。

If we consider this possibility, it opens up an interesting avenue for Bitcoin to enter the picture.

如果我们考虑这种可能性，它将为比特币输入图片的有趣途径。

If gold is taking on a larger role in global finance, investors might naturally draw parallels to Bitcoin’s decentralized structure and limited supply, qualities that make it an appealing investment in an era of eroding fiat currencies.

如果黄金在全球金融中发挥更大的作用，投资者自然可能会与比特币的分散结构和有限的供应相似，这使它成为侵蚀法定货币时代的吸引力。

This segues into a Triffin Dilemma workaround, which economists have been discussing for decades. The U.S. faces a predicament: it needs to overprint dollars and sell them to foreign countries to support global trade but at the same time aims to maintain the long-term value of the dollar.

这使经济学家几十年来一直在讨论这一问题。美国面临困境：它需要过分印刷美元并将其出售给国外以支持全球贸易，但同时旨在维持美元的长期价值。

Over time, Treasuries could be replaced with neutral assets like gold, and eventually, even Bitcoin, to settle international obligations. But how would such a shift come about?

随着时间的流逝，国债可以被黄金等中立资产所取代，最终甚至比特币，以履行国际义务。但是，这种转变将如何发生？

If we look at the broader picture, the goal is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and encourage domestic production. To achieve this, the flow of capital must be reversed.

如果我们看一下更广泛的情况，目标是减少美国的贸易赤字并鼓励国内生产。为了实现这一目标，必须扭转资本流。

Instead of buying up Treasuries and dollars, foreign countries would be better advised to invest in neutral assets like gold.

最好建议国外投资于黄金等中性资产，而不是购买国库和美元。

In essence, if the U.S. is serious about a manufacturing comeback, it will also need to dismantle or at least modify the existing system for managing global imbalances.

从本质上讲，如果美国认真对待制造业复出，它还需要拆除或至少修改现有的管理全球失衡系统。

This would involve a transition from a Treasury-based system to one that utilizes neutral assets like gold, or potentially even Bitcoin in the later stages, to settle international obligations.

这将涉及从基于国库的系统过渡到利用黄金等中性资产的系统，甚至可能在后期阶段进行比特币，以解决国际义务。

If we see Treasuries being sold off in bulk to foreign central banks and a corresponding inflow of gold, it could be the first indication that this capital shift has begun.

如果我们看到国库批量出售给外国中央银行以及相应的黄金流入，这可能是首次迹象表明这种资本转移已经开始。

And if this capital reallocation is taking place, then it might not be long before we see Bitcoin joining the ranks of preferred assets in the coming months or year.

而且，如果发生这种资本重新分配，那么可能不久之后我们会看到比特币在未来几个月或一年中加入了首选资产的行列。