黃金的複出可以為比特幣繁榮鋪平道路嗎？

盧克·格羅門（Luke Gromen）是宏觀經濟界的著名聲音，正在浮出水面，它可以通過全球市場蕩漾：如果黃金作為定居資產重新出名

Luke Gromen, a noted voice in macroeconomic analysis, is posing a thought-provoking scenario that could have far-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency markets.

盧克·格羅門（Luke Gromen）是宏觀經濟分析中著名的聲音，正在提出一個令人發人深省的場景，可能對加密貨幣市場具有深遠的影響。

If gold is once again used as a primary settlement asset, could Bitcoin follow closely behind?

如果再次將黃金用作主要的和解資產，那麼比特幣可以緊隨其後嗎？

According to Gromen, the possibility is greater than one might think, and it ties into a broader economic strategy being deployed by Washington.

格羅門認為，這種可能性比人們想像的要大，它與華盛頓部署的更廣泛的經濟戰略聯繫在一起。

As the U.S. focuses on rebuilding its domestic industries, a major point of contention arises—how will this strategy square off with the existing system of exporting dollars and Treasuries to balance global trade?

當美國專注於重建其國內行業時，出現了一個主要的爭論點 - 該戰略是否會與現有的出口美元和國債的系統相吻合，以平衡全球貿易？

If the nation is serious about making things within its own borders again, then that system will need to be dismantled or at least overhauled, presenting a significant undertaking.

如果國家再次認真對待自己的邊界內的事物，那麼該系統將需要拆除或至少大修，這是一項重大的工作。

However, if we zoom out further, there’s a sliver of good news. In a surprising move, former President Trump did not place tariffs on gold despite imposing them on a wide range of goods. This decision might not be as trivial as it seems.

但是，如果我們進一步縮小，那麼有很多好消息。令人驚訝的舉動，前總統特朗普儘管將其強加於廣泛的商品，但並未將關稅納入黃金。這個決定可能並不像看起來那麼小。

If capital is being diverted towards gold, then this could be an early indication of a broader capital flow.

如果資本轉向黃金，那麼這可能是更廣泛的資本流動的早期跡象。

If we consider this possibility, it opens up an interesting avenue for Bitcoin to enter the picture.

如果我們考慮這種可能性，它將為比特幣輸入圖片的有趣途徑。

If gold is taking on a larger role in global finance, investors might naturally draw parallels to Bitcoin’s decentralized structure and limited supply, qualities that make it an appealing investment in an era of eroding fiat currencies.

如果黃金在全球金融中發揮更大的作用，投資者自然可能會與比特幣的分散結構和有限的供應相似，這使它成為侵蝕法定貨幣時代的吸引力。

This segues into a Triffin Dilemma workaround, which economists have been discussing for decades. The U.S. faces a predicament: it needs to overprint dollars and sell them to foreign countries to support global trade but at the same time aims to maintain the long-term value of the dollar.

這使經濟學家幾十年來一直在討論這一問題。美國面臨困境：它需要過分印刷美元並將其出售給國外以支持全球貿易，但同時旨在維持美元的長期價值。

Over time, Treasuries could be replaced with neutral assets like gold, and eventually, even Bitcoin, to settle international obligations. But how would such a shift come about?

隨著時間的流逝，國債可以被黃金等中立資產所取代，最終甚至比特幣，以履行國際義務。但是，這種轉變將如何發生？

If we look at the broader picture, the goal is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and encourage domestic production. To achieve this, the flow of capital must be reversed.

如果我們看一下更廣泛的情況，目標是減少美國的貿易赤字並鼓勵國內生產。為了實現這一目標，必須扭轉資本流。

Instead of buying up Treasuries and dollars, foreign countries would be better advised to invest in neutral assets like gold.

最好建議國外投資於黃金等中性資產，而不是購買國庫和美元。

In essence, if the U.S. is serious about a manufacturing comeback, it will also need to dismantle or at least modify the existing system for managing global imbalances.

從本質上講，如果美國認真對待製造業復出，它還需要拆除或至少修改現有的管理全球失衡系統。

This would involve a transition from a Treasury-based system to one that utilizes neutral assets like gold, or potentially even Bitcoin in the later stages, to settle international obligations.

這將涉及從基於國庫的系統過渡到利用黃金等中性資產的系統，甚至可能在後期階段進行比特幣，以解決國際義務。

If we see Treasuries being sold off in bulk to foreign central banks and a corresponding inflow of gold, it could be the first indication that this capital shift has begun.

如果我們看到國庫批量出售給外國中央銀行以及相應的黃金流入，這可能是首次跡象表明這種資本轉移已經開始。

And if this capital reallocation is taking place, then it might not be long before we see Bitcoin joining the ranks of preferred assets in the coming months or year.

而且，如果發生這種資本重新分配，那麼可能不久之後我們會看到比特幣在未來幾個月或一年中加入了首選資產的行列。