Glassnode 的最新链上指标显示比特币 (BTC) 市场阶段正处于微妙的平衡状态

随着投资者信心的增强、交易活动的减少和网络的稳定，比特币似乎处于一种微妙的平衡状态。

Glassnode’s latest on-chain metrics provide valuable insights into the current state of the Bitcoin market. These metrics paint a picture of an intriguing equilibrium, where investor confidence is high, trading activity is reduced, and the network remains stable. However, this stability raises questions about whether Bitcoin is preparing for a breakout or setting the stage for a quieter period.

Glassnode 的最新链上指标为比特币市场的当前状况提供了宝贵的见解。这些指标描绘了一幅有趣的均衡图景，投资者信心高涨，交易活动减少，而网络保持稳定。然而，这种稳定性引发了人们的疑问：比特币是在为突破做准备，还是为平静时期奠定基础。

1. Surging Long-Term Holder Confidence: A Sign of Maturing Bullishness

1. 长期持有者信心高涨：看涨情绪成熟的标志

According to Glassnode’s recent data, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are actively accumulating Bitcoin, indicating a growing confidence in its long-term value proposition. These holders, defined as those who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, now control a large portion of the total supply.

根据 Glassnode 的最新数据，长期持有者（LTH）正在积极积累比特币，这表明对其长期价值主张的信心不断增强。这些持有者被定义为持有比特币超过 155 天的人，现在控制着总供应量的很大一部分。

This trend suggests a shift away from speculative short-term trading, with more Bitcoin being locked away in long-term storage. While this could be a bullish sign, it also raises questions about whether the market is setting itself up for another speculative rush in the future.

这一趋势表明投机性短期交易的转变，更多比特币被锁定在长期存储中。虽然这可能是一个看涨信号，但也引发了市场是否正在为未来另一场投机热潮做好准备的疑问。

2. Declining “Liveliness” Metric: Bullish Sign or Market Stagnation?

2.“活力”指标下降：看涨信号还是市场停滞？

Another interesting metric observed by Glassnode is the "Liveliness" of Bitcoin, which is measured by the ratio of Spent Transaction Output (STH) to the total supply. This metric has been consistently declining, indicating that fewer Bitcoin transactions are occurring and more assets are being held long-term.

Glassnode 观察到的另一个有趣的指标是比特币的“活力”，它是通过花费的交易输出（STH）与总供应量的比率来衡量的。该指标一直在下降，表明比特币交易正在减少，而长期持有的资产则越来越多。

While this could be seen as a bullish sign, indicating reduced market volatility and a shift towards value storage, it could also raise concerns about market stagnation. Is the market truly stabilizing, or is Bitcoin simply waiting for an external catalyst to reignite movement?

虽然这可以被视为一个看涨信号，表明市场波动性减少并转向价值存储，但也可能引发对市场停滞的担忧。市场真的稳定下来了，还是比特币只是在等待外部催化剂来重新引发波动？

3. Bitcoin in a State of Equilibrium: Setting Up for a Breakout or Prolonged Consolidation?

3. 比特币处于均衡状态：准备突破还是长期盘整？

According to Glassnode's observations, Bitcoin is currently in a "state of equilibrium," where the buying and selling pressures are balanced, leading to a period of relative price stability.

根据Glassnode的观察，比特币目前处于“平衡状态”，买卖压力平衡，导致价格相对稳定。

However, this stability poses a crucial question: will it eventually lead to a major breakout or a lengthy period of consolidation? Without a surge in demand or an influx of new capital, Bitcoin's price is likely to remain stuck within a tight range. Could this equilibrium be the calm before the next big price move, or is Bitcoin entering a holding pattern that may last longer than expected?

然而，这种稳定提出了一个关键问题：它最终会导致重大突破还是长期盘整？如果没有需求激增或新资本涌入，比特币的价格可能会继续徘徊在狭窄的区间内。这种平衡可能是下一次价格大幅波动之前的平静，还是比特币正在进入一种可能持续时间比预期更长的持有模式？

4. Active Address Growth: Key to Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run?

4. 活跃地址增长：比特币下一次牛市的关键？

Glassnode's analysis also highlights a positive trend in the number of active addresses, which measure the quantity of unique Bitcoin addresses transacting. According to their observations, this metric has been on the rise.

Glassnode 的分析还强调了活跃地址数量的积极趋势，该数量衡量了唯一比特币地址交易的数量。根据他们的观察，这一指标一直在上升。

This increasing engagement with the Bitcoin network could be a sign of growing adoption, which has the potential to pave the way for a possible price surge. With both retail and institutional players showing interest, could the steady increase in active addresses be the first indication of a larger wave of demand—one that might propel Bitcoin towards new highs?

比特币网络参与度的增加可能是比特币采用率不断提高的标志，这有可能为可能的价格飙升铺平道路。随着散户和机构参与者都表现出兴趣，活跃地址的稳定增长是否可能成为更大需求浪潮的第一个迹象——这可能推动比特币迈向新高？

5. Bitcoin's Hashrate and Network Health: Resilience as a Key to Future Growth

5. 比特币的算力和网络健康状况：弹性是未来增长的关键

Throughout the recent market周期, Bitcoin's network hashrate has continued to climb, reaching new all-time highs. This serves as a strong indication of a robust and secure blockchain. As more miners commit vast resources to securing the network, Bitcoin's decentralized nature becomes even more powerful.

在最近的市场周期中，比特币的网络算力持续攀升，创下历史新高。这有力地表明了区块链的稳健性和安全性。随着越来越多的矿工投入大量资源来保护网络，比特币的去中心化性质变得更加强大。

Generally, this is viewed as a bullish indicator, suggesting continued confidence in the network's future. Could a strong network security infrastructure be the cornerstone for future growth, or is it simply an essential component without which Bitcoin cannot thrive?

一般来说，这被视为看涨指标，表明对网络未来的持续信心。强大的网络安全基础设施能否成为未来增长的基石，或者它只是比特币无法蓬勃发展的重要组成部分？

6. Market Saturation Risk: Is Bitcoin's Supply Becoming Too Scarce for New Entrants?

6.市场饱和风险：比特币的供应对于新进入者来说是否变得过于稀缺？

While Bitcoin's value has soared in recent years, Glassnode raises concerns about market saturation. As LTHs continue to accumulate more Bitcoin, the supply available for new investors continues to dwindle.

尽管比特币的价值近年来飙升，但 Glassnode 引发了人们对市场饱和的担忧。随着 LTH 继续积累更多比特币，新投资者可用的比特币供应量持续减少。

This scarcity could lead to liquidity issues and result in sharp price movements when demand picks up. Could this scarcity create a barrier to entry for new investors, or will it be the catalyst for a massive price rally as institutions and high-net-worth individuals vie for a piece of the remaining supply?

这种稀缺性可能会导致流动性问题，并在需求回升时导致价格大幅波动。这种稀缺性是否会为新投资者造成进入障碍，还是会成为机构和高净值个人争夺剩余供应份额时价格大幅上涨的催化剂？

7. Glassnode's Price Prediction Indicators: Will Bitcoin Break Through Key Resistance or Fall Back?

7. Glassnode的价格预测指标：比特币会突破关键阻力还是回落？

According to Glassnode's on-chain metrics, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical juncture. While key support levels around $87,000 to $90,000 are holding firm, the absence of fresh demand could make it difficult for Bitcoin to push past resistance levels, especially the psychological $100,000 mark.

根据 Glassnode 的链上指标，比特币可能正接近一个关键时刻。虽然 87,000 美元至 90,000 美元左右的关键支撑位保持坚挺，但缺乏新需求可能会使比特币难以突破阻力位，尤其是 100,000 美元的心理关口。

Is this the moment where Bitcoin consolidates or falls back, or is the market simply waiting for the next big trigger to send prices soaring?

这是比特币盘整或回落的时刻，还是市场只是在等待下一个重大触发因素来推动价格飙升？

Conclusion: Is Bitcoin on the Verge of a New Chapter, or Is This a Waiting Game?

结论：比特币即将开启新篇章，还是一场等待游戏？

Glassnode's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is at a pivotal point. With LTHs in control, active addresses on the rise, and the network continuing to

Glassnode 的分析表明，比特币正处于关键时刻。随着 LTH 的控制，活跃地址不断增加，网络持续发展