Galaxy Research 预测比特币 2025 年将突破 15 万美元

Galaxy Research 最近向其客户和交易对手提供了一组对 2025 年加密货币行业的详细预测。

Galaxy Research recently provided its clients and counterparties with a detailed set of predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025.

Galaxy Research 最近向其客户和交易对手提供了一组对 2025 年加密货币行业的详细预测。

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Trajectory

比特币破纪录的轨迹

According to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin is expected to cross $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and test or exceed $185,000 by the fourth quarter. This growth will be driven by institutional, corporate, and nation-state adoption. Galaxy Research noted that Bitcoin has consistently outperformed other asset classes, such as the S&P 500 and gold, and will continue to do so in 2025. Bitcoin’s market cap is anticipated to reach 20% of gold’s total market cap.

据 Galaxy Research 称，比特币预计将在 2025 年上半年突破 150,000 美元，并在第四季度测试或超过 185,000 美元。这种增长将由机构、企业和民族国家的采用推动。 Galaxy Research 指出，比特币的表现一直优于标准普尔 500 指数和黄金等其他资产类别，并将在 2025 年继续如此。比特币的市值预计将达到黄金总市值的 20%。

Galaxy Research predicted that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) will surpass $250 billion in assets under management (AUM) in 2025, following record inflows of $36 billion in 2024. These ETPs have gained traction among major hedge funds and institutional investors, including Millennium, Tudor, and D.E. Shaw, with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board also taking positions. Galaxy Research stated that Bitcoin ETPs are on track to surpass the AUM of U.S. physical gold ETPs.

Galaxy Research 预测，继 2024 年流入创纪录的 360 亿美元之后，美国现货比特币交易所交易产品 (ETP) 的管理资产 (AUM) 到 2025 年将超过 2500 亿美元。这些 ETP 受到了主要对冲基金和机构投资者的青睐。包括 Millennium、Tudor 和 DE Shaw，威斯康星州投资委员会也采取了立场。 Galaxy Research 表示，比特币 ETP 的 AUM 有望超越美国实物黄金 ETP。

Galaxy Research forecasted that Bitcoin will once again rank as one of the top-performing assets on a risk-adjusted basis in 2025. The firm also projected that at least one leading wealth management platform will recommend a 2% or higher Bitcoin allocation, a milestone that could significantly boost adoption.

Galaxy Research 预测，到 2025 年，比特币将再次成为风险调整后表现最佳的资产之一。该公司还预计，至少一个领先的财富管理平台将推荐 2% 或更高的比特币配置，这是一个里程碑这可以显着提高采用率。

Galaxy Research further stated that five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation-states will announce Bitcoin holdings, driven by strategic, diversification, or trade settlement reasons. The firm also anticipated consensus among Bitcoin developers on the next protocol upgrade, including opcodes such as OP_CTV, OP_CAT, and OP_CSFS, although activation is unlikely in 2025.

Galaxy Research 进一步表示，出于战略、多元化或贸易结算原因的推动，五家纳斯达克 100 指数公司和五个民族国家将宣布持有比特币。该公司还预计比特币开发人员就下一次协议升级达成共识，包括 OP_CTV、OP_CAT 和 OP_CSFS 等操作码，尽管在 2025 年激活的可能性不大。

Additionally, Galaxy Research predicted that over half of the top 20 publicly traded Bitcoin miners will pivot to partnerships with hyperscalers or high-performance computing firms to meet rising AI-driven compute demands. This trend is expected to limit hashrate growth to 1.1 zetahashes by the end of 2025.

此外，Galaxy Research 预测，排名前 20 名的公开交易比特币矿商中，超过一半将转向与超大规模企业或高性能计算公司合作，以满足不断增长的人工智能驱动的计算需求。预计到 2025 年底，这一趋势将把算力增长限制在 1.1 Zetahash。

Bitcoin DeFi’s Growth

比特币 DeFi 的增长

Galaxy Research stated that Bitcoin DeFi markets, including wrapped BTC in DeFi protocols and staking layers like Babylon, will nearly double in size to over $30 billion in 2025. Growth factors include a 150% increase in cbBTC supply, a 30% rise in WBTC supply, Babylon’s TVL reaching $8 billion, and the expansion of Bitcoin Layer 2 networks.

Galaxy Research 表示，比特币 DeFi 市场，包括 DeFi 协议中的 BTC 包装和像 Babylon 这样的质押层，到 2025 年规模将几乎翻倍，达到 300 亿美元以上。增长因素包括 cbBTC 供应量增加 150%，WBTC 供应量增加 30% ，Babylon 的 TVL 达到 80 亿美元，以及比特币第 2 层网络的扩展。

Ethereum’s Momentum

以太坊的势头

Galaxy Research predicted that Ether will surpass $5,500 in 2025, driven by relaxed regulatory headwinds and increased partnerships between DeFi and traditional finance. Ethereum’s staking rate is expected to exceed 50% of circulating supply, bolstered by regulatory clarity and demand for staking services from platforms like Lido and Coinbase. The firm also forecasted a rise in Ethereum Layer 2 networks, which will collectively generate more economic activity than alternative Layer 1 blockchains.

Galaxy Research 预测，在监管阻力放松以及 DeFi 与传统金融之间合作伙伴关系加强的推动下，以太坊价格将在 2025 年突破 5,500 美元。由于监管的明确性以及 Lido 和 Coinbase 等平台对质押服务的需求，以太坊的质押率预计将超过流通供应量的 50%。该公司还预测以太坊第 2 层网络的崛起，这将比其他第 1 层区块链共同产生更多的经济活动。

Galaxy Research suggested that the ETH/BTC ratio will trade between 0.03 and 0.045 in 2025, influenced by renewed investor interest in Ethereum’s app layer and DeFi ecosystem.

Galaxy Research 预计，受投资者对以太坊应用层和 DeFi 生态系统重新燃起兴趣的影响，2025 年 ETH/BTC 比率将在 0.03 至 0.045 之间交易。

Stablecoins and Traditional Finance

稳定币和传统金融

Galaxy Research predicted that stablecoin supply will double to over $400 billion in 2025, driven by increased use in payments, remittances, and settlements. Regulatory clarity will accelerate this growth, enabling traditional financial institutions to integrate stablecoins into their operations. The firm projected that Tether’s market dominance will fall below 50%, with alternatives like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Coinbase’s USDC Rewards gaining market share.

Galaxy Research 预测，由于支付、汇款和结算领域的使用增加，稳定币供应量将在 2025 年翻一番，达到 4000 亿美元以上。监管的明确性将加速这种增长，使传统金融机构能够将稳定币整合到其运营中。该公司预计，Tether 的市场主导地位将降至 50% 以下，贝莱德的 BUIDL 和 Coinbase 的 USDC Rewards 等替代品将获得市场份额。

Galaxy Research also anticipated at least ten new stablecoin launches through partnerships with traditional finance firms, further embedding stablecoins into global financial systems.

Galaxy Research 还预计，通过与传统金融公司的合作，将至少推出十种新的稳定币，进一步将稳定币嵌入全球金融体系。

Regulatory Shifts

监管转变

Galaxy Research forecasted that stablecoin legislation will pass in the United States with bipartisan support in 2025, but broader market structure legislation will not. The firm also predicted that the U.S. government would stockpile Bitcoin using existing holdings, while the SEC would investigate Prometheum, potentially leading to the abolition of its special-purpose broker-dealer license.

Galaxy Research 预测，稳定币立法将于 2025 年在两党支持下在美国获得通过，但更广泛的市场结构立法不会。该公司还预测，美国政府将利用现有资产储备比特币，而美国证券交易委员会将调查 Prometheum，这可能导致其特殊用途经纪交易商许可证被废除。

Broader Trends

更广泛的趋势

Galaxy Research stated that total venture capital investment in crypto will surpass $150 billion in 2025, with a 50% year-over-year increase driven by easing regulatory conditions and declining interest rates. Onchain governance is expected to see a resurgence, with active voter participation rising by 20% and experiments with futarchic governance models improving vote diversity.

Galaxy Research 表示，到 2025 年，加密货币领域的风险投资总额将超过 1500 亿美元，在监管条件宽松和利率下降的推动下，同比增长 50%。链上治理预计将复苏，积极选民参与度将上升 20%，并且未来治理模型的实验将改善投票多样性。

Galaxy Research believes that

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