Galaxy Research 預測比特幣 2025 年將突破 15 萬美元

Galaxy Research 最近向其客戶和交易對手提供了一組 2025 年加密貨幣行業的詳細預測。

Galaxy Research recently provided its clients and counterparties with a detailed set of predictions for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025.

Galaxy Research 最近向其客戶和交易對手提供了一組 2025 年加密貨幣行業的詳細預測。

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Trajectory

比特幣破紀錄的軌跡

According to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin is expected to cross $150,000 in the first half of 2025 and test or exceed $185,000 by the fourth quarter. This growth will be driven by institutional, corporate, and nation-state adoption. Galaxy Research noted that Bitcoin has consistently outperformed other asset classes, such as the S&P 500 and gold, and will continue to do so in 2025. Bitcoin’s market cap is anticipated to reach 20% of gold’s total market cap.

據 Galaxy Research 稱，比特幣預計將在 2025 年上半年突破 15 萬美元，並在第四季度測試或超過 18.5 萬美元。這種成長將由機構、企業和民族國家的採用所推動。 Galaxy Research 指出，比特幣的表現一直優於標準普爾 500 指數和黃金等其他資產類別，並將在 2025 年繼續如此。

Galaxy Research predicted that U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) will surpass $250 billion in assets under management (AUM) in 2025, following record inflows of $36 billion in 2024. These ETPs have gained traction among major hedge funds and institutional investors, including Millennium, Tudor, and D.E. Shaw, with the State of Wisconsin Investment Board also taking positions. Galaxy Research stated that Bitcoin ETPs are on track to surpass the AUM of U.S. physical gold ETPs.

Galaxy Research 預測，繼2024 年流入創紀錄的360 億美元之後，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易產品(ETP) 的管理資產(AUM) 到2025 年將超過2500 億美元。機構投資者的青睞。 Galaxy Research 表示，比特幣 ETP 的 AUM 預計將超越美國實體黃金 ETP。

Galaxy Research forecasted that Bitcoin will once again rank as one of the top-performing assets on a risk-adjusted basis in 2025. The firm also projected that at least one leading wealth management platform will recommend a 2% or higher Bitcoin allocation, a milestone that could significantly boost adoption.

Galaxy Research 預測，到2025 年，比特幣將再次成為風險調整後表現最佳的資產之一。一個里程碑這可以顯著提高採用率。

Galaxy Research further stated that five Nasdaq 100 companies and five nation-states will announce Bitcoin holdings, driven by strategic, diversification, or trade settlement reasons. The firm also anticipated consensus among Bitcoin developers on the next protocol upgrade, including opcodes such as OP_CTV, OP_CAT, and OP_CSFS, although activation is unlikely in 2025.

Galaxy Research 進一步表示，出於戰略、多元化或貿易結算原因的推動，五家納斯達克 100 指數公司和五個民族國家將宣布持有比特幣。該公司還預計比特幣開發人員將就下一次協議升級達成共識，包括 OP_CTV、OP_CAT 和 OP_CSFS 等操作碼，儘管在 2025 年啟動的可能性不大。

Additionally, Galaxy Research predicted that over half of the top 20 publicly traded Bitcoin miners will pivot to partnerships with hyperscalers or high-performance computing firms to meet rising AI-driven compute demands. This trend is expected to limit hashrate growth to 1.1 zetahashes by the end of 2025.

此外，Galaxy Research 預測，排名前 20 名的公開交易比特幣礦商中，超過一半將轉向與超大規模企業或高效能運算公司合作，以滿足不斷增長的人工智慧驅動的運算需求。預計到 2025 年底，這一趨勢將把算力成長限制在 1.1 Zetahash。

Bitcoin DeFi’s Growth

比特幣 DeFi 的成長

Galaxy Research stated that Bitcoin DeFi markets, including wrapped BTC in DeFi protocols and staking layers like Babylon, will nearly double in size to over $30 billion in 2025. Growth factors include a 150% increase in cbBTC supply, a 30% rise in WBTC supply, Babylon’s TVL reaching $8 billion, and the expansion of Bitcoin Layer 2 networks.

Galaxy Research 表示，比特幣DeFi 市場，包括DeFi 協議中的BTC 包裝和像Babylon 這樣的質押層，到2025 年規模將幾乎翻倍，達到300 億美元以上。供應量增加30% ，Babylon 的 TVL 達到 80 億美元，以及比特幣第 2 層網路的擴展。

Ethereum’s Momentum

以太坊的勢頭

Galaxy Research predicted that Ether will surpass $5,500 in 2025, driven by relaxed regulatory headwinds and increased partnerships between DeFi and traditional finance. Ethereum’s staking rate is expected to exceed 50% of circulating supply, bolstered by regulatory clarity and demand for staking services from platforms like Lido and Coinbase. The firm also forecasted a rise in Ethereum Layer 2 networks, which will collectively generate more economic activity than alternative Layer 1 blockchains.

Galaxy Research 預測，在監管阻力放鬆以及 DeFi 與傳統金融之間合作夥伴關係加強的推動下，以太坊價格將在 2025 年突破 5,500 美元。由於監管的明確性以及 Lido 和 Coinbase 等平台對質押服務的需求，以太坊的質押率預計將超過流通供應量的 50%。該公司還預測以太坊第 2 層網路的崛起，這將比其他第 1 層區塊鏈共同產生更多的經濟活動。

Galaxy Research suggested that the ETH/BTC ratio will trade between 0.03 and 0.045 in 2025, influenced by renewed investor interest in Ethereum’s app layer and DeFi ecosystem.

Galaxy Research 預計，受投資者對以太坊應用層和 DeFi 生態系統重新燃起興趣的影響，2025 年 ETH/BTC 比率將在 0.03 至 0.045 之間交易。

Stablecoins and Traditional Finance

穩定幣和傳統金融

Galaxy Research predicted that stablecoin supply will double to over $400 billion in 2025, driven by increased use in payments, remittances, and settlements. Regulatory clarity will accelerate this growth, enabling traditional financial institutions to integrate stablecoins into their operations. The firm projected that Tether’s market dominance will fall below 50%, with alternatives like BlackRock’s BUIDL and Coinbase’s USDC Rewards gaining market share.

Galaxy Research 預測，由於支付、匯款和結算領域的使用增加，穩定幣供應量將在 2025 年翻一番，達到 4,000 億美元以上。監管的明確性將加速這種成長，使傳統金融機構能夠將穩定幣整合到其營運中。該公司預計，Tether 的市場主導地位將降至 50% 以下，貝萊德的 BUIDL 和 Coinbase 的 USDC Rewards 等替代品將獲得市場份額。

Galaxy Research also anticipated at least ten new stablecoin launches through partnerships with traditional finance firms, further embedding stablecoins into global financial systems.

Galaxy Research 也預計，透過與傳統金融公司的合作，將推出至少十種新的穩定幣，進一步將穩定幣嵌入全球金融體系。

Regulatory Shifts

監管轉變

Galaxy Research forecasted that stablecoin legislation will pass in the United States with bipartisan support in 2025, but broader market structure legislation will not. The firm also predicted that the U.S. government would stockpile Bitcoin using existing holdings, while the SEC would investigate Prometheum, potentially leading to the abolition of its special-purpose broker-dealer license.

Galaxy Research 預測，穩定幣立法將於 2025 年在兩黨支持下在美國獲得通過，但更廣泛的市場結構立法不會。該公司還預測，美國政府將利用現有資產儲備比特幣，而美國證券交易委員會將調查 Prometheum，這可能導致其特殊用途經紀交易商許可證被廢除。

Broader Trends

更廣泛的趨勢

Galaxy Research stated that total venture capital investment in crypto will surpass $150 billion in 2025, with a 50% year-over-year increase driven by easing regulatory conditions and declining interest rates. Onchain governance is expected to see a resurgence, with active voter participation rising by 20% and experiments with futarchic governance models improving vote diversity.

Galaxy Research 表示，到 2025 年，加密貨幣領域的創投總額將超過 1,500 億美元，在監管條件寬鬆和利率下降的推動下，年增 50%。鏈上治理預計將復甦，積極選民參與度將上升 20%，未來治理模式的實驗將改善投票多樣性。

Galaxy Research believes that

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