2025 年比特币的未来：特朗普的回归和战略储备的承诺

2025年，比特币的未来充满期待，市场巨头都在期待特朗普的回归，希望这一事件能够成为全年加密市场增长的主要催化剂。

As 2025 unfolds, the future of Bitcoin holds immense anticipation, particularly with market giants eagerly awaiting Trump's return, hoping that this event will serve as a major catalyst for the growth of the crypto market throughout the year.

随着 2025 年的到来，比特币的未来充满了巨大的期待，尤其是市场巨头热切等待特朗普的回归，希望这一事件能够成为全年加密货币市场增长的主要催化剂。

1. Bitcoin breaks all-time high

1. 比特币突破历史新高

After Trump won the presidential election on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 milestone for the first time. And with Trump's official inauguration on January 20, 2025, the heat of the Bitcoin market was pushed to higher expectations.

2024年11月5日特朗普赢得总统大选后，比特币首次突破10万美元里程碑。而随着特朗普于2025年1月20日正式就职，比特币市场的热度被推向了更高的预期。

Boosted by Trump's promise of regulatory relief and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, market confidence has grown exponentially. According to FX Street data, cryptocurrency adoption among people aged 18 to 25 surged 683% after the presidential election, and Bitcoin's price ceiling has become a hot topic in the market.

在特朗普承诺放松监管和战略性比特币储备计划的提振下，市场信心呈指数级增长。据FX Street数据显示，总统大选后，18岁至25岁人群的加密货币采用率激增683%，比特币的价格上限已成为市场热门话题。

2. The future of Bitcoin: How will Trump’s second term affect the market?

2. 比特币的未来：特朗普的第二任期将如何影响市场？

Will Trump’s policies drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs? Will the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve be a watershed moment in Bitcoin’s history? Let’s take a closer look at the possible impacts.

特朗普的政策会推动比特币创下历史新高吗？比特币战略储备的创建会成为比特币历史上的分水岭吗？让我们仔细看看可能的影响。

1) Build up a Bitcoin reserve

1）建立比特币储备

During last year's campaign, Trump promised to put all the bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government and those purchased in the future into a "national strategic bitcoin reserve." He likened this plan to the U.S. oil reserves and the need to act quickly to accumulate large reserves before competing countries such as China.

去年竞选期间，特朗普承诺将美国政府目前持有的以及未来购买的所有比特币纳入“国家比特币战略储备”。他将该计划比作美国的石油储备，以及需要在中国等竞争国家之前迅速采取行动积累大量储备。

Trump's plan is not the first of its kind in the world. As early as 2021, El Salvador used Bitcoin as a reserve asset and currently holds a total of 6,150 Bitcoins, which is approximately US$600 million at current prices.

特朗普的计划并不是世界上第一个此类计划。早在2021年，萨尔瓦多就将比特币作为储备资产，目前总共持有6150枚比特币，按当前价格计算，价值约6亿美元。

Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan are still unclear and there is uncertainty as to whether it will actually be implemented, there are signs that this plan may refer to the "BITCOIN Act" (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide) proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis.

尽管特朗普比特币储备计划的具体细节尚不清楚，是否真正实施也存在不确定性，但有迹象表明，该计划可能会参考《比特币法案》（通过全国优化投资促进创新、技术和竞争力） ）由共和党参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出。

According to an analysis by Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom24, “Under the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million bitcoins over the next 20 years, equivalent to about 5% of the total supply. The limited supply of bitcoin is expected to push up its price, and by accumulating bitcoin now, the U.S. may help offset growing debt problems in the future.”

Freedom24投资研究主管Maxim Manturov分析称，“根据所谓的比特币法案，美国必须在未来20年内积累100万枚比特币，相当于总供应量的5%左右。比特币的有限供应预计将推高其价格，通过现在积累比特币，美国可能有助于抵消未来日益严重的债务问题。”

Since the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply is equivalent to 1.05 million Bitcoins, which is worth more than $100 billion at current valuations.

由于比特币的总供应量限制为2100万枚，这意味着5%的供应量相当于105万枚比特币，按目前估值计算，其价值超过1000亿美元。

2) Supply and demand imbalance will push up prices

2）供需失衡将推高价格

With the huge demand for Bitcoin ETF funds, this supply-demand imbalance may further drive prices up. Manturov pointed out that in this context, the market's predictions for Bitcoin prices range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million in 2050.

由于比特币ETF基金的巨大需求，这种供需失衡可能会进一步推高价格。曼图洛夫指出，在此背景下，市场对比特币价格的预测范围从2025年的12.5万美元到2050年的290万美元。

It is not certain whether Trump’s policy will come true, but if this plan is implemented, the United States may not only become the leader in Bitcoin reserves, but will also have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market. Bitcoin’s historic moment may be coming.

目前还不确定特朗普的政策是否会实现，但如果这一计划得以实施，美国可能不仅会成为比特币储备的领导者，而且还将对加密市场的未来产生深远的影响。比特币的历史性时刻可能即将到来。

3. How high can Bitcoin go?

3. 比特币能涨到多高？

The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly critical because Bitcoin has just completed its fourth "halving event" in 2024. This is a preset mechanism that occurs automatically every four years or so, and each halving halves the Bitcoin rewards miners receive through computing power mining.

特朗普重返总统职位的时机尤为关键，因为比特币刚刚在2024年完成了第四次“减半事件”。这是一种预设机制，每四年左右自动发生一次，每次减半都会让矿工通过算力获得的比特币奖励减半电力开采。

1) Halving event and market rally

1）减半事件和市场反弹

The Bitcoin halving event automatically increases the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically this mechanism has often triggered market rallies and pushed Bitcoin prices to record highs.

比特币减半事件自动增加了新生成的比特币的稀缺性，历史上这种机制经常引发市场反弹，并将比特币价格推至历史新高。

Therefore, expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of 2025 are already extremely high, and the optimism brought about by Trump may further boost Bitcoin’s adoption.

因此，人们对比特币2025年上半年表现的预期已经极高，特朗普带来的乐观情绪可能会进一步推动比特币的采用。

2) Trump’s price expectations

2）特朗普的物价预期

According to sources, Trump privately hopes that Bitcoin can reach $150,000 early in his presidency and sees it as an alternative to the stock market.

据消息人士透露，特朗普私下希望比特币能够在他的总统任期内达到15万美元，并将其视为股市的替代品。

Trump's son Eric Trump is even more radical. He said at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the future.

特朗普的儿子埃里克·特朗普更加激进。他在12月的中东和北非比特币会议上表示，未来比特币的价格可能达到100万美元。

While the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics make such predictions fraught with uncertainty, given investor enthusiasm and the limited supply of Bitcoin, it is not inconceivable that Bitcoin could reach the $1 million mark in the future.

尽管加密货币的投机性质以及全球市场和地缘政治的波动性使得此类预测充满不确定性，但鉴于投资者的热情和比特币的供应有限，比特币未来达到 100 万美元大关并非不可想象。