2025 年比特幣的未來：川普的回歸與戰略儲備的承諾

2025年，比特幣的未來充滿期待，市場巨頭都在期待川普的回歸，希望這起事件能成為全年加密市場成長的主要催化劑。

As 2025 unfolds, the future of Bitcoin holds immense anticipation, particularly with market giants eagerly awaiting Trump's return, hoping that this event will serve as a major catalyst for the growth of the crypto market throughout the year.

隨著 2025 年的到來，比特幣的未來充滿了巨大的期待，尤其是市場巨頭熱切等待川普的回歸，希望這一事件能成為全年加密貨幣市場成長的主要催化劑。

1. Bitcoin breaks all-time high

1. 比特幣突破歷史新高

After Trump won the presidential election on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 milestone for the first time. And with Trump's official inauguration on January 20, 2025, the heat of the Bitcoin market was pushed to higher expectations.

2024年11月5日川普贏得總統大選後，比特幣首次突破10萬美元里程碑。而隨著川普於2025年1月20日正式就職，比特幣市場的熱度被推向了更高的預期。

Boosted by Trump's promise of regulatory relief and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, market confidence has grown exponentially. According to FX Street data, cryptocurrency adoption among people aged 18 to 25 surged 683% after the presidential election, and Bitcoin's price ceiling has become a hot topic in the market.

在川普承諾放鬆監管和策略性比特幣儲備計畫的提振下，市場信心呈指數級增長。根據FX Street數據顯示，總統大選後，18歲至25歲族群的加密貨幣採用率激增683%，比特幣的價格上限成為市場熱門話題。

2. The future of Bitcoin: How will Trump’s second term affect the market?

2. 比特幣的未來：川普的第二任期將如何影響市場？

Will Trump’s policies drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs? Will the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve be a watershed moment in Bitcoin’s history? Let’s take a closer look at the possible impacts.

川普的政策會推動比特幣創下歷史新高嗎？比特幣戰略儲備的創建會成為比特幣歷史上的分水嶺嗎？讓我們仔細看看可能的影響。

1) Build up a Bitcoin reserve

1）建立比特幣儲備

During last year's campaign, Trump promised to put all the bitcoins currently held by the U.S. government and those purchased in the future into a "national strategic bitcoin reserve." He likened this plan to the U.S. oil reserves and the need to act quickly to accumulate large reserves before competing countries such as China.

去年競選期間，川普承諾將美國政府目前持有的以及未來購買的所有比特幣納入「國家比特幣戰略儲備」。他將該計劃比作美國的石油儲備，以及需要在中國等競爭國家之前迅速採取行動累積大量儲備。

Trump's plan is not the first of its kind in the world. As early as 2021, El Salvador used Bitcoin as a reserve asset and currently holds a total of 6,150 Bitcoins, which is approximately US$600 million at current prices.

川普的計劃並不是世界上第一個此類計劃。早在2021年，薩爾瓦多就將比特幣作為儲備資產，目前總共持有6,150枚比特幣，以目前價格計算，價值約6億美元。

Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan are still unclear and there is uncertainty as to whether it will actually be implemented, there are signs that this plan may refer to the "BITCOIN Act" (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide) proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis.

儘管川普比特幣儲備計畫的具體細節尚不清楚，是否真正實施也存在不確定性，但有跡象表明，該計畫可能會參考《比特幣法案》（透過全國優化投資促進創新、技術和競爭力） ）由共和黨參議員辛西婭·魯米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出。

According to an analysis by Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom24, “Under the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million bitcoins over the next 20 years, equivalent to about 5% of the total supply. The limited supply of bitcoin is expected to push up its price, and by accumulating bitcoin now, the U.S. may help offset growing debt problems in the future.”

Freedom24投資研究主管Maxim Manturov分析稱，「根據所謂的比特幣法案，美國必須在未來20年內累積100萬枚比特幣，相當於總供應量的5%左右。比特幣的有限供應預計將推高其價格，透過現在累積比特幣，美國可能有助於抵消未來日益嚴重的債務問題。

Since the total supply of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply is equivalent to 1.05 million Bitcoins, which is worth more than $100 billion at current valuations.

由於比特幣的總供應量限制為2,100萬枚，這意味著5%的供應量相當於105萬枚比特幣，以目前估值計算，價值超過1,000億美元。

2) Supply and demand imbalance will push up prices

2）供需失衡將推高價格

With the huge demand for Bitcoin ETF funds, this supply-demand imbalance may further drive prices up. Manturov pointed out that in this context, the market's predictions for Bitcoin prices range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million in 2050.

由於比特幣ETF基金的龐大需求，這種供需失衡可能會進一步推高價格。曼圖洛夫指出，在此背景下，市場對比特幣價格的預測範圍從2025年的12.5萬美元到2050年的290萬美元。

It is not certain whether Trump’s policy will come true, but if this plan is implemented, the United States may not only become the leader in Bitcoin reserves, but will also have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market. Bitcoin’s historic moment may be coming.

目前還不確定川普的政策是否會實現，但如果這項計畫得以實施，美國可能不僅會成為比特幣儲備的領導者，而且還將對加密市場的未來產生深遠的影響。比特幣的歷史性時刻可能即將到來。

3. How high can Bitcoin go?

3. 比特幣能漲到多高？

The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly critical because Bitcoin has just completed its fourth "halving event" in 2024. This is a preset mechanism that occurs automatically every four years or so, and each halving halves the Bitcoin rewards miners receive through computing power mining.

川普重返總統職位的時機尤其關鍵，因為比特幣剛剛在2024年完成了第四次「減半事件」。都會讓礦工透過算力獲得的比特幣獎勵減半電力開採。

1) Halving event and market rally

1）減半事件和市場反彈

The Bitcoin halving event automatically increases the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically this mechanism has often triggered market rallies and pushed Bitcoin prices to record highs.

比特幣減半事件自動增加了新產生的比特幣的稀缺性，歷史上這種機制經常引發市場反彈，並將比特幣價格推向歷史新高。

Therefore, expectations for Bitcoin’s performance in the first half of 2025 are already extremely high, and the optimism brought about by Trump may further boost Bitcoin’s adoption.

因此，人們對比特幣2025年上半年表現的預期已經極高，川普帶來的樂觀情緒可能會進一步推動比特幣的採用。

2) Trump’s price expectations

2）川普的物價預期

According to sources, Trump privately hopes that Bitcoin can reach $150,000 early in his presidency and sees it as an alternative to the stock market.

消息人士透露，川普私下希望比特幣能夠在他的總統任期內達到15萬美元，並將其視為股市的替代品。

Trump's son Eric Trump is even more radical. He said at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December that the price of Bitcoin could reach $1 million in the future.

川普的兒子埃里克·川普更加激進。他在12月的中東和北非比特幣會議上表示，未來比特幣的價格可能達到100萬美元。

While the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics make such predictions fraught with uncertainty, given investor enthusiasm and the limited supply of Bitcoin, it is not inconceivable that Bitcoin could reach the $1 million mark in the future.

儘管加密貨幣的投機性質以及全球市場和地緣政治的波動性使得此類預測充滿不確定性，但鑑於投資者的熱情和比特幣的供應有限，比特幣未來達到 100 萬美元大關並非不可想像。