DOGE 上涨 22%，FOMO 回归，比特币重回 7 万美元以上

(Kitco News) – The crypto market showed renewed bullish energy on Thursday with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing back above $70,000 while Dogecoin (DOGE) spiked 22% and now trades above $0.22 for the first time since Dec. 14, 2021, as retail traders embrace the pumpalicious nature of the meme coin market. 

(Kitco News) – 加密货币市场周四显示出新的看涨能量，比特币 (BTC) 回升至 70,000 美元以上，而狗狗币 (DOGE) 飙升 22%，目前交易价格自 2021 年 12 月 14 日以来首次突破 0.22 美元，零售交易者接受模因币市场的疯狂本质。

Stocks also trended higher as a late-day rally saw the S&P 500 notch a new record high and brought an end to one of the strongest quarters of price growth in recent history. Investors are now focused on tomorrow’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, and while it's expected to show a slight uptick in inflation, any effect on stock prices will be delayed as U.S. markets are closed for Good Friday. 

股市也走高，标准普尔 500 指数尾盘上涨，创下历史新高，结束了近期历史上最强劲的价格增长季度之一。投资者现在关注明天的个人消费支出（PCE）报告，虽然预计通胀将小幅上升，但由于美国市场因耶稣受难日休市，对股价的任何影响都将被延迟。

At the closing bell, the S&P and Dow recorded gains of 0.11% and 0.12%, respectively, while the Nasdaq fell 0.12%. 

截至收盘，标普指数和道琼斯指数分别上涨0.11%和0.12%，纳指下跌0.12%。

Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin climbed its way higher from a daily low of $68,855 in the early morning to hit a high of $71,635 in the afternoon, and has been consolidating above $70,000 since then as bulls look to regroup before making a run at a new all-time high.

TradingView提供的数据显示，比特币从凌晨68,855美元的日低点一路攀升，下午触及71,635美元的高点，此后一直在70,000美元上方盘整，因为多头希望在冲刺之前重新集结。创历史新高。

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

BTC/USD 图表（由 TradingView 提供）

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $70,811, an increase of 3.30% on the 24-hour chart. 

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 70,811 美元，24 小时图上涨 3.30%。

What type of bull market cycle will it be?

这将是一个什么样的牛市周期？

The January launch of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs has had a noticeable effect on the normal crypto market bull cycle as evidenced by the fact that BTC hit a new all-time high before the halving, a feat King Crypto has never achieved before. 

一月份推出的多个现货比特币 ETF 对正常的加密市场牛市周期产生了显着影响，BTC 在减半前创下历史新高就证明了这一点，这是 King Crypto 以前从未实现过的壮举。

According to Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, “As measured peak-to-peak, #BTC is ahead of prior cycles.” 

Into the Cryptoverse 的创始人本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 表示，“根据峰值到峰值的测量，#BTC 领先于之前的周期。”

That said, Cowen still thinks “the answer to whether this #BTC market cycle is a normal one or left-translated will depend on how the market reacts to rate cuts in a few months.”

尽管如此，考恩仍然认为“这个 #BTC 市场周期是正常周期还是左转周期的答案将取决于市场对几个月后降息的反应。”

“The last cycle was above its prior cycle for a while, and then once rate cuts arrived, it got back in line with the prior cycle around the 750-day mark,” he said. “So if #BTC gets a correction after rate cuts, it would potentially put it back on track with prior cycles, with a potential peak in 2025.”

“上一个周期一度高于上一个周期，然后一旦降息到来，它就在 750 天大关附近恢复到与上一个周期一致，”他表示。 “因此，如果#BTC 在降息后得到修正，它可能会回到之前周期的正轨，并可能在 2025 年达到峰值。”

“If you measure #BTC peak-to-peak ROI but from the April 2021 top, instead of November 2021, it shows we are further along in the cycle, and so far things line up well with last cycle, and a potential top in 2024,” he said. 

“如果你衡量 #BTC 峰峰值投资回报率，但从 2021 年 4 月的顶部开始，而不是 2021 年 11 月，这表明我们在这个周期中走得更远，到目前为止，情况与上一个周期一致，并且可能在 2021 年达到顶峰。 2024 年，”他说。

“So if #BTC gets a long breather after the halving (coincidentally around the time that rate cuts start) like 2019, then perhaps this cycle is the same,” Cowen said. “But if we don’t get a 6-9 month consolidation period, then perhaps a left-translated peak is happening.”

“因此，如果#BTC 在减半后（恰好在降息开始的时间）像 2019 年一样得到长时间的喘息，那么也许这个周期是一样的，”Cowen 说。 “但如果我们没有获得 6-9 个月的盘整期，那么左平顶峰可能正在发生。”

He noted that during the 2013 bull market, Bitcoin had a “blow-off top in April, then another top in November,” while the 2021 bull market “had a blow-off top in April, then another top in November.”

他指出，在 2013 年牛市期间，比特币“在 4 月出现了一个顶峰，然后在 11 月再次见顶”，而 2021 年牛市“在 4 月出现了一个顶峰，然后在 11 月再次见顶”。

This was in contrast to how Bitcoin’s price reacted to interest rate cuts in 2019, which led to “a 6-month bear market, followed by a recession (black-swan induced), thus making it a 9-month bear market,” Cowen said. 

这与 2019 年比特币价格对降息的反应形成鲜明对比，后者导致了“为期 6 个月的熊市，随后是经济衰退（黑天鹅引发的），从而使其成为为期 9 个月的熊市”，Cowen说。

“If #BTC gets a correction after rate cuts arrive that lasts through Q4 (meaning no new mania phase in Q4), then I think we could get a standard cycle peak in the post-halving year,” he said. “Regardless of what happens in Q4, I would suspect that the market finally cools off after April. Then this summer the debate will be around if the market picks back up again in Q4 or if we have to wait until 2025 for another move.”

他表示：“如果#BTC 在降息后得到修正并持续到第四季度（意味着第四季度不会出现新的狂热阶段），那么我认为我们可能会在减半后的一年中达到标准周期峰值。” “无论第四季度发生什么，我怀疑市场最终会在四月份之后降温。那么今年夏天，争论将围绕市场是否在第四季度再次回升，或者我们是否必须等到 2025 年再采取行动。”

Cowen said determining whether this cycle will be left-translated or a normal cycle peak will likely “depend on exactly when the inversion of the yield curve is resolved.”

考恩表示，确定这个周期是左转还是正常的周期峰值可能“取决于收益率曲线倒挂何时得到解决”。

“My speculation is that the current mania dies down sometime after the halving (perhaps the halving marks the beginning of a ‘summer lull,’ just as it did in 2013 and 2021),” he concluded. “Then what happens in Q4 will dictate whether this is a normal cycle or left-translated.”  

“我的猜测是，当前的狂热会在减半后的某个时候消退（也许减半标志着‘夏季平静’的开始，就像 2013 年和 2021 年那样），”他总结道。 “那么第四季度发生的事情将决定这是正常周期还是左转周期。”

For now, the bull market remains in full swing, as noted by Cubic Analytics founder Caleb Franzen, and Bitcoin has reclaimed its 2021 ATH, which is the first step in confirming a breakout higher. 

正如 Cubic Analytics 创始人 Caleb Franzen 指出的那样，目前牛市仍然如火如荼，比特币已经恢复了 2021 年的 ATH，这是确认突破走高的第一步。

#Bitcoin is on track for the highest daily close since March 14th, 2024 (red), which is also the day that it made new all-time highs, albeit briefly.

Probably not bearish. pic.twitter.com/KrA1vawQMs

#比特币有望创下自 2024 年 3 月 14 日（红色）以来的最高日收盘价，这也是它创下历史新高的一天，尽管时间短暂。可能并不看跌。 pic.twitter.com/KrA1vawQMs

— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) March 28, 2024

— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) 2024 年 3 月 28 日

Meme coins break out, altcoin market trades mixed. 

Meme币爆发，山寨币市场交易涨跌互现。

Altcoins traded mixed on Thursday, with a majority of tokens recording gains, led by a resurgence in meme coins. 

周四，山寨币的交易涨跌互现，大多数代币都录得上涨，其中模因币的复苏带动了这一趋势。

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

每日加密货币市场表现。来源：Coin360

Dogecoin (DOGE), FLOKI (FLOKI), and dogwifhat (WIF) were three of the top four gainers, recording increases of 20.2%, 16.1%, and 15.9%, respectively, while Core (CORE) climbed 19.4%. Threshold (T) fell 10.9% to lead the losers, followed by a 7% pullback for Internet Computer (ICP), and a 6.9% loss for Sui (SUI). 

狗狗币 (DOGE)、FLOKI (FLOKI) 和 Dogwifhat (WIF) 是涨幅前四名中的三个，分别上涨 20.2%、16.1% 和 15.9%，而 Core (CORE) 则上涨 19.4%。 Threshold (T) 下跌 10.9%，领跌，其次是 Internet Computer (ICP) 下跌 7%，Sui (SUI) 下跌 6.9%。

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.66 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 52.3%.

目前加密货币整体市值为2.66万亿美元，比特币的主导率为52.3%。