富达投资的Jurrien Timmer预测，比特币将超过市场价值的黄金

Fidelity Investments全球宏观宏观总监Jurrien Timmer在正在进行的有关比特币超过市场价值的潜力的辩论中加剧了辩论。

Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro, has shared his thoughts on the possibility of Bitcoin surpassing gold in market value. While he acknowledges that Bitcoin could eventually rival gold, he doesn't foresee this happening anytime soon.

Fidelity Investments的全球宏观总监Jurrien Timmer分享了他对比特币超过市场价值的可能性的想法。尽管他承认比特币最终可以与黄金相抗衡，但他不会预见这很快就会发生。

In a recent social media post, Timmer visualized Bitcoin and gold's projected growth trajectories. If gold continues its historical growth rate of 8% annually since 1970, and Bitcoin follows either a power law adoption curve or an S-curve similar to the internet's growth, the two assets might converge in the next 10 to 20 years.

在最近的社交媒体帖子中，Timmer可视化比特币和Gold的预计增长轨迹。如果黄金自1970年以来的历史增长率持续每年8％，而比特币则遵循采用曲线或类似于互联网增长的S曲线，那么这两个资产可能会在未来10到20年中汇聚在一起。

“Bitcoin might outpace gold for a while, but gold will always maintain a more stable, quieter role,” Timmer stated.

蒂默说：“比特币可能会超过一段时间的黄金，但黄金将始终保持更稳定，更安静的角色。”

His view contrasts with bolder predictions from others in the industry. For instance, Michael Saylor, the founder of Galaxy Digital, has made far more aggressive forecasts for Bitcoin's future.

他的观点与行业中其他人的大胆预测形成鲜明对比。例如，Galaxy Digital的创始人Michael Saylor对比特币的未来做出了更加积极的预测。

At the DC Blockchain Summit, Saylor predicted that Bitcoin's market cap could reach an astounding $500 trillion as it absorbs value from traditional assets such as gold and real estate. He compared Bitcoin's rise to historical shifts in monetary systems, arguing that the digital asset is poised to replace 20th-century assets with a decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative.

在DC区块链首脑会议上，Saylor预测，比特币的市值可能会达到500万亿美元，因为它吸收了传统资产（例如黄金和房地产）的价值。他将比特币的兴起与货币体系的历史转变进行了比较，认为该数字资产有望用分散的，耐通胀的替代方案代替20世纪的资产。

“The generation of wealth in Bitcoin will be an astounding sight to behold. It will dwarf any asset class of the 20th century. If Bitcoin is to replace 20th-century assets, then in 10 years, Bitcoin could have a $500 trillion market cap and absorb the value of the top 10 public companies and the entire U.S. stock market.”

“比特币中的财富产生将是令人震惊的景象。它将使20世纪的任何资产类别相形见war。如果比特币要取代20世纪的资产，那么在10年内，在10年内，比特币可能具有500万亿美元的市值，并吸收了前10名上市公司的价值和整个美国股市的价值。”

As more institutions invest in Bitcoin and adoption continues to grow, the question is no longer whether Bitcoin can rival gold, but when and under what circumstances it might reach that point. For now, though, Timmer believes that gold still holds a leading role, remaining steady and time-tested in contrast to Bitcoin's more volatile path.

随着越来越多的机构对比特币进行投资，采用率不断增长，问题不再是比特币是否可以与黄金相媲美，而是在什么情况下以及在什么情况下可能达到这一点。不过，就目前而言，蒂默（Timmer）认为，与比特币更加动荡的道路相比，黄金仍然持有领导角色，保持稳定且经过时间测试。