富達投資的Jurrien Timmer預測，比特幣將超過市場價值的黃金

Fidelity Investments全球宏觀宏觀總監Jurrien Timmer在正在進行的有關比特幣超過市場價值的潛力的辯論中加劇了辯論。

Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macro, has shared his thoughts on the possibility of Bitcoin surpassing gold in market value. While he acknowledges that Bitcoin could eventually rival gold, he doesn't foresee this happening anytime soon.

Fidelity Investments的全球宏觀總監Jurrien Timmer分享了他對比特幣超過市場價值的可能性的想法。儘管他承認比特幣最終可以與黃金相抗衡，但他不會預見這很快就會發生。

In a recent social media post, Timmer visualized Bitcoin and gold's projected growth trajectories. If gold continues its historical growth rate of 8% annually since 1970, and Bitcoin follows either a power law adoption curve or an S-curve similar to the internet's growth, the two assets might converge in the next 10 to 20 years.

在最近的社交媒體帖子中，Timmer可視化比特幣和Gold的預計增長軌跡。如果黃金自1970年以來的歷史增長率持續每年8％，而比特幣則遵循採用曲線或類似於互聯網增長的S曲線，那麼這兩個資產可能會在未來10到20年中匯聚在一起。

“Bitcoin might outpace gold for a while, but gold will always maintain a more stable, quieter role,” Timmer stated.

蒂默說：“比特幣可能會超過一段時間的黃金，但黃金將始終保持更穩定，更安靜的角色。”

His view contrasts with bolder predictions from others in the industry. For instance, Michael Saylor, the founder of Galaxy Digital, has made far more aggressive forecasts for Bitcoin's future.

他的觀點與行業中其他人的大膽預測形成鮮明對比。例如，Galaxy Digital的創始人Michael Saylor對比特幣的未來做出了更加積極的預測。

At the DC Blockchain Summit, Saylor predicted that Bitcoin's market cap could reach an astounding $500 trillion as it absorbs value from traditional assets such as gold and real estate. He compared Bitcoin's rise to historical shifts in monetary systems, arguing that the digital asset is poised to replace 20th-century assets with a decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative.

在DC區塊鏈首腦會議上，Saylor預測，比特幣的市值可能會達到500萬億美元，因為它吸收了傳統資產（例如黃金和房地產）的價值。他將比特幣的興起與貨幣體系的歷史轉變進行了比較，認為該數字資產有望用分散的，耐通脹的替代方案代替20世紀的資產。

“The generation of wealth in Bitcoin will be an astounding sight to behold. It will dwarf any asset class of the 20th century. If Bitcoin is to replace 20th-century assets, then in 10 years, Bitcoin could have a $500 trillion market cap and absorb the value of the top 10 public companies and the entire U.S. stock market.”

“比特幣中的財富產生將是令人震驚的景象。它將使20世紀的任何資產類別相形見war。如果比特幣要取代20世紀的資產，那麼在10年內，在10年內，比特幣可能具有500萬億美元的市值，並吸收了前10名上市公司的價值和整個美國股市的價值。”

As more institutions invest in Bitcoin and adoption continues to grow, the question is no longer whether Bitcoin can rival gold, but when and under what circumstances it might reach that point. For now, though, Timmer believes that gold still holds a leading role, remaining steady and time-tested in contrast to Bitcoin's more volatile path.

隨著越來越多的機構對比特幣進行投資，採用率不斷增長，問題不再是比特幣是否可以與黃金相媲美，而是在什麼情況下以及在什麼情況下可能達到這一點。不過，就目前而言，蒂默（Timmer）認為，與比特幣更加動蕩的道路相比，黃金仍然持有領導角色，保持穩定且經過時間測試。