牛市中开盘高点还存在吗？近期多家交易所上线新币回顾

近期MOVE和ME的上线，展现了大众的热情以及牛市中新币的凶猛。回想起来，比如OKX上的新币OL就给人留下了深刻的印象。开盘短暂回调后，如“推土机”般继续上涨。

Original title: New coins in the bull market, is it necessary to sell them early?

原标题：牛市新币，有必要早卖吗？

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

作者 |南植（@Assassin_Malvo）

The recent launch of MOVE and ME has once again shown the enthusiasm of the masses and the ferocity of new coins in the bull market. Looking back, for example, the new coin OL on OKX left a deep impression on people. After a short correction at the opening, it continued to rise like a "bulldozer".

近期MOVE和ME的上线，再次展现了大众的热情以及牛市中新币的凶猛。回想起来，比如OKX上的新币OL就给人留下了深刻的印象。开盘短暂回调后，如“推土机”般继续上涨。

So, is the strategy for new coins different in a bull market, and does it not have to be sold as early as before? In this article, Odaily will review the new coins launched on several exchanges recently to try to answer this question.

那么，牛市中新币的策略是不是不一样了，是不是也得像以前一样早卖呢？在这篇文章中，Odaily 将回顾近期几家交易所推出的新币，试图回答这个问题。

Basic information

基本信息

This article selects new coins launched by Binance, OKX, Bybit and the entire network, and the time limit is within the past two months.

本文选取币安、OKX、Bybit及全网推出的新币，时间限制在近两个月内。

The whole network will include MOVE and ME;

整个网络将包括MOVE和ME；

Binance includes SCR and USUAL (pre-market);

Binance包括SCR和USUAL（上市前）；

OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL and X (in fact, multiple exchanges are launched at the same time, but not including Binance, etc.);

OKX包括MAJOR、MORPHO、MEMEFI、OL和X（实际上是多个交易所同时上线，但不包括币安等）；

Bybit selected MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

Bybit选择了MOZ（Lumoz）和XION。

In terms of time, the 5-minute closing price, 1-hour closing price, 24-hour closing price, 7-day closing price and current price (as of 15:00 Beijing time on December 16) of the above tokens are counted.

从时间上看，统计上述代币的5分钟收盘价、1小时收盘价、24小时收盘价、7日收盘价以及当前价格（截至12月16日北京时间15:00） 。

Then compare the increase or decrease of each token, such as the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine whether it is the "opening high".

然后比较各个代币的涨跌幅，比如1小时收盘价相对5分钟收盘价，来判断是否是“开盘高点”。

Does the opening high still exist?

开盘高点还存在吗？

The rise and fall data of each token are shown in the figure below. The 1-hour closing price fell by an average of 14% relative to the 5-minute closing price, and the 24-hour closing price fell by an average of 7%.

各代币的涨跌数据如下图所示。 1小时收盘价相对5分钟收盘价平均下跌14%，24小时收盘价平均下跌7%。

It can be seen that in the shorter term, the opening 5 minutes is still the high point. If you can get the tokens within this time point, it is still recommended to sell them.

可见，短期来看，开盘5分钟仍是高点。如果你能在这个时间点内拿到代币，还是建议出售。

There are eight tokens that have been online for 7 days. The 7-day closing prices of these tokens fell 8.7% relative to the 5-minute closing prices, indicating that the medium-term situation remains unchanged and the opening price is still at a high point.

上线7天的代币有8个。这些代币7日收盘价相对5分钟收盘价下跌8.7%，表明中期形势不变，开盘价仍处于高位。

Would the situation change if the time frame was longer?

如果时间更长的话，情况会改变吗？

The current price of 11 tokens has increased by an average of 25% relative to the 5-minute closing price, but after excluding OL, it has fallen by an average of 21%, and the decline has further widened.

目前11个代币价格相对5分钟收盘价平均上涨25%，但剔除OL后平均下跌21%，跌幅进一步扩大。

The opening is still at its peak

开盘仍处于巅峰状态

In summary, for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point. The bull market may bring a higher opening price, rather than a long-term increase. And it will take one or two months to eliminate the excessively high prices caused by the overheated sentiment at the opening. According to statistical rules, it is still recommended to sell if you can get the token within 5 minutes.

综上所述，对于大多数代币来说，开盘仍然有可能是最高点。牛市可能会带来更高的开盘价，而不是长期的上涨。而消除开盘情绪过热造成的价格过高还需要一两个月的时间。根据统计规则，如果5分钟内能拿到代币，仍然建议卖出。

Binance’s new coin VANA price estimate

币安新币VANA价格预估

Based on the past 21 Binance Launchpool data, we get the estimated price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion US dollars and an initial circulating market value of 479 million US dollars.

根据币安Launchpool过去21天的数据，我们得到VANA的预估价格为15.9 USDT，对应FDV为19.11亿美元，初始流通市值为4.79亿美元。

The algorithm is as follows: the average annualized return in the past 21 periods is 96%, assuming that this period is also 96%; based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, it can be obtained that in order to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:

算法如下：过去21个时期的平均年化回报率为96%，假设本期也是96%；根据过去21个周期的BNB平均投资金额和726 USDT的BNB价格可以得出，为了达到相同的年化收益，VANA的价格需要达到：

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96%=15.93