牛市中開盤高點還存在嗎？近期多家交易所上線新幣回顧

近期MOVE和ME的上線，展現了大眾的熱情以及牛市中新幣的兇猛。回想起來，例如OKX上的新幣OL就給人留下了深刻的印象。開盤短暫回調後，如「推土機」般繼續上漲。

Original title: New coins in the bull market, is it necessary to sell them early?

原標題：牛市新幣，有必要提早賣嗎？

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

作者 |南植（@Assassin_Malvo）

The recent launch of MOVE and ME has once again shown the enthusiasm of the masses and the ferocity of new coins in the bull market. Looking back, for example, the new coin OL on OKX left a deep impression on people. After a short correction at the opening, it continued to rise like a "bulldozer".

近期MOVE和ME的上線，再次展現了大眾的熱情以及牛市中新幣的兇猛。回想起來，例如OKX上的新幣OL就給人留下了深刻的印象。開盤短暫回調後，如「推土機」般繼續上漲。

So, is the strategy for new coins different in a bull market, and does it not have to be sold as early as before? In this article, Odaily will review the new coins launched on several exchanges recently to try to answer this question.

那麼，牛市中新幣的策略是不是不一樣了，是不是也像以前一樣早賣呢？在這篇文章中，Odaily 將回顧近期幾家交易所推出的新幣，試圖回答這個問題。

Basic information

基本訊息

This article selects new coins launched by Binance, OKX, Bybit and the entire network, and the time limit is within the past two months.

本文選取幣安、OKX、Bybit及全網推出的新幣，時間限制在近兩個月內。

The whole network will include MOVE and ME;

整個網路將包括MOVE和ME；

Binance includes SCR and USUAL (pre-market);

Binance包括SCR和USUAL（上市前）；

OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL and X (in fact, multiple exchanges are launched at the same time, but not including Binance, etc.);

OKX包括MAJOR、MORPHO、MEMEFI、OL和X（實際上是多個交易所同時上線，但不包括幣安等）；

Bybit selected MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

Bybit選擇了MOZ（Lumoz）和XION。

In terms of time, the 5-minute closing price, 1-hour closing price, 24-hour closing price, 7-day closing price and current price (as of 15:00 Beijing time on December 16) of the above tokens are counted.

從時間上看，統計上述代幣的5分鐘收盤價、1小時收盤價、24小時收盤價、7日收盤價以及當前價格（截至12月16日北京時間15:00） 。

Then compare the increase or decrease of each token, such as the 1-hour closing price relative to the 5-minute closing price, to determine whether it is the "opening high".

然後比較各代幣的漲跌幅，例如1小時收盤價相對5分鐘收盤價，來判斷是否為「開盤高點」。

Does the opening high still exist?

開盤高點還存在嗎？

The rise and fall data of each token are shown in the figure below. The 1-hour closing price fell by an average of 14% relative to the 5-minute closing price, and the 24-hour closing price fell by an average of 7%.

各代幣的漲跌數據如下圖所示。 1小時收盤價相對5分鐘收盤價平均下跌14%，24小時收盤價平均下跌7%。

It can be seen that in the shorter term, the opening 5 minutes is still the high point. If you can get the tokens within this time point, it is still recommended to sell them.

可見，短期來看，開盤5分鐘仍是高點。如果你能在這個時間點拿到代幣，還是建議出售。

There are eight tokens that have been online for 7 days. The 7-day closing prices of these tokens fell 8.7% relative to the 5-minute closing prices, indicating that the medium-term situation remains unchanged and the opening price is still at a high point.

上線7天的代幣有8個。這些代幣7日收盤價相對5分鐘收盤價下跌8.7%，顯示中期情況不變，開盤價仍處於高位。

Would the situation change if the time frame was longer?

如果時間較長的話，情況會改變嗎？

The current price of 11 tokens has increased by an average of 25% relative to the 5-minute closing price, but after excluding OL, it has fallen by an average of 21%, and the decline has further widened.

目前11個代幣價格相對5分鐘收盤價平均上漲25%，但剔除OL後平均下跌21%，跌幅進一步擴大。

The opening is still at its peak

開盤仍處於巔峰狀態

In summary, for most tokens, the opening is still likely to be the highest point. The bull market may bring a higher opening price, rather than a long-term increase. And it will take one or two months to eliminate the excessively high prices caused by the overheated sentiment at the opening. According to statistical rules, it is still recommended to sell if you can get the token within 5 minutes.

綜上所述，對於大多數代幣來說，開盤仍然有可能是最高點。多頭市場可能會帶來更高的開盤價，而不是長期的上漲。而消除開盤情緒過熱造成的價格過高還需要一兩個月的時間。根據統計規則，如果5分鐘內能拿到代幣，仍然建議賣出。

Binance’s new coin VANA price estimate

幣安新幣VANA價格預估

Based on the past 21 Binance Launchpool data, we get the estimated price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, corresponding to an FDV of 1.911 billion US dollars and an initial circulating market value of 479 million US dollars.

根據幣安Launchpool過去21天的數據，我們得到VANA的預估價格為15.9 USDT，對應FDV為19.11億美元，初始流通市值為4.79億美元。

The algorithm is as follows: the average annualized return in the past 21 periods is 96%, assuming that this period is also 96%; based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, it can be obtained that in order to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:

演算法如下：過去21個時期的平均年化報酬率為96%，假設本期也是96%；根據過去21個週期的BNB平均投資金額和726 USDT的BNB價格可以得出，為了達到相同的年化收益，VANA的價格需要達到：

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96%=15.93