该活动引起了人们的担忧，即特朗普家庭信托拥有大部分硬币，可能很快就会清算其持股

特朗普硬币是在特朗普总统一月就职典礼前几天发射的，在1月19日飙升至73.43美元的高峰。

The event has fueled concerns that the Trump family trust, which holds a significant portion of the coin, may soon liquidate its holdings, potentially deepening the coin’s decline.

该活动引起了人们的担忧，即特朗普家庭信托拥有大部分硬币，可能很快就会清算其持股，并有可能加深硬币的衰落。

$300 Million Unlock Stirs Volatility Concerns

3亿美元解锁搅拌的波动问题

On April 17, 40 million Trump digital tokens, recently valued at approximately $300 million, were released from lock-up restrictions. These coins are now eligible for sale on major platforms like Coinbase, Robinhood, or decentralized exchanges. Among the beneficiaries is CIC Digital LLC, a firm tied to the Trump Organization and controlled by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust.

4月17日，锁定限制释放了4000万特朗普的数字代币，最近价值约3亿美元。这些硬币现在有资格在Coinbase，Robinhood或Sententrized交流等主要平台上出售。受益人中有CIC Digital LLC，这是一家与特朗普组织相关的公司，并由唐纳德·J·特朗普（Donald J. Trump）可撤销的信托控制。

A $300M $TRUMP token unlock occurred as 40 million tokens entered circulation following the end of a 3-month cliff, with $4M worth set to unlock daily thereafter. Source: Alek via X

3亿美元的特朗普代币解锁发生了，因为4000万个令牌在3个月结束后进入流通，此后每天都将耗资400万美元。资料来源：Alek通过X

The Trump coin, launched days before President Trump’s January inauguration, saw an explosive debut, soaring to a peak of $73.43 on January 19. However, it has since cratered to about $7.50, with Thursday’s 3% dip adding to ongoing bearish momentum. According to CoinGecko, the token’s market cap now hovers around $1.6 billion, down sharply from its initial highs.

特朗普硬币是在特朗普总统一月就职典礼前几天发起的，在1月19日飙升至73.43美元的高峰。但是，此后，它的峰值达到了约7.50美元，周四的3％下降增加了持续的看跌势头。据Coingecko称，令牌的市值现在徘徊在16亿美元左右，比最初的高点急剧下降。

Trump Coin ($TRUMP) Technical Analysis

特朗普硬币（特朗普）技术分析

Despite the fanfare around the unlock, $TRUMP has shown little bullish response. Analysts point to a deteriorating technical structure. The coin remains firmly below the Ichimoku Cloud, a widely used indicator that signals trend direction. Moreover, the short-term EMA (Exponential Moving Average) continues to trail below the long-term ones, indicating a sustained bearish trend.

尽管围绕着解锁的大张旗鼓，但特朗普几乎没有表现出看涨的反应。分析师指出技术结构恶化。硬币牢固地低于Ichimoku Cloud，这是一个广泛使用趋势方向的指标。此外，短期EMA（指数移动平均线）继续落后于长期的EMA，表明持续的看跌趋势。

held the $7 weekly low for 13 days despite a major unlock, signaling potential accumulation and a possible rebound. Source: HamadaMark on TradingView

尽管有重大的解锁，可能积累了潜在的积累和可能的反弹，但每周7美元的低点持续了13天。资料来源：Hamadamark在TradingView上

Further dampening sentiment is the BBTrend indicator, which flipped sharply into negative territory at -6.93 this week, down from a mildly positive 2.35 earlier. This suggests any recent upward momentum has stalled, and sellers are firmly back in control.

BBTREND指标进一步的衰减情绪是，本周急剧地倾斜到-6.93，低于较早的2.35。这表明最近的任何向上势头都停滞不前，卖方牢牢地控制了。

“The failure to reclaim the cloud and ongoing EMA misalignment signals that bulls have a steep hill to climb,” said one technical analyst tracking the coin.

一位跟踪硬币的技术分析师说：“未能收回云和持续的EMA未对准信号表明，公牛的山坡陡峭。”

Trump’s Trust in Focus

特朗普对重点的信任

Fueling speculation is the possibility that Trump’s revocable trust, which holds stakes in CIC Digital, may offload some of its newly unlocked coins. According to Trump’s financial disclosure, the trust is overseen by his children and can make transactions under the guidance of an ethics attorney. Still, even a partial sell-off could apply immense pressure to the already fragile market.

加油的猜测是，特朗普的可撤销信托（在CIC数字中都有股份）可能会卸载其一些新解锁的硬币。根据特朗普的财务披露，该信托由他的孩子监督，可以在道德律师的指导下进行交易。尽管如此，即使是部分抛售也可能向已经脆弱的市场施加巨大压力。

Adding to investor concerns, data from Chainalysis reveals that wallets linked to the token’s developers have already pulled in over $350 million—mostly by depositing unlocked coins into liquidity pools, allowing for indirect sales in exchange for USDC. These developers also earned an estimated $35 million in trading fees as liquidity providers.

链分析的数据增加了投资者的关注，表明与代币开发商相关的钱包已经吸收了超过3.5亿美元，主要是通过将未锁定的硬币存入流动性池中，从而可以间接销售以交换USDC。这些开发商还估计，作为流动性提供商，这些开发商的交易费用约为3500万美元。

“This setup makes it easy to gradually cash out while avoiding direct exchange listings,” noted a Chainalysis analyst.

一位链分析师指出：“这种设置使得在避免直接交换清单的同时逐渐兑现变得容易。”

Political Heat and Regulatory Loopholes

政治炎热和法规漏洞

The Trump coin’s launch—and its subsequent plunge—has triggered backlash from lawmakers. Democratic Rep. Sam Liccardo is now backing the MEME Act, a proposed bill aimed at banning federal officials and their families from profiting off meme coins.

特朗普硬币的发射以及随后的投资引发了立法者的反对。民主党众议员萨姆·列卡多（Sam Liccardo）现在正在支持《模因法》，该法案旨在禁止联邦官员及其家人从模因硬币中获利。

“The First Family is exploiting the public through meme coins. This loophole invites insider trading and foreign influence.”

“第一家庭正在通过模因硬币来利用公众。这个漏洞邀请内幕交易和外国影响力。”

Despite these concerns, the SEC has so far stayed on the sidelines. Since $TRUMP is not classified as a security, it remains outside the agency’s jurisdiction, sparking renewed calls for regulatory clarity around meme coins.

尽管有这些担忧，但SEC迄今仍在场上。由于特朗普没有被归类为安全，因此它仍然不在该机构的管辖范围之内，引发了围绕模因硬币的监管清晰的呼吁。

High Risk, High Drama

高风险，高戏剧性

The broader crypto community remains divided over $TRUMP’s future. While President Trump has embraced his role as the “crypto president,” backing multiple blockchain ventures and even signing executive orders to shape federal digital asset policy, critics argue this dual role represents a clear conflict of interest.

更广泛的加密社区在特朗普的未来中仍然存在分歧。尽管特朗普总统接受了他作为“加密总统”的角色，但支持多个区块链冒险，甚至签署了塑造联邦数字资产政策的行政命令，但批评家认为，这种双重角色代表了明显的利益冲突。

After holding steady at $7 for 13 days post-unlock, $TRUMP appears to have bottomed out and could be ready for a rebound. Source: Captain Faibik via X

在Unlock后13天保持稳定为7美元之后，$ Trump似乎已经触底了，可以为反弹做好准备。资料来源：Faibik上尉通过X

“There’s absolutely a conflict,” said Ann Koppuzha, a business law professor at Santa Clara University. “Trump’s policies could directly benefit his own crypto ventures.”

圣克拉拉大学商业法教授安·科普扎（Ann Koppuzha）说：“绝对有冲突。” “特朗普的政策可以直接受益于自己的加密货币。”

Meanwhile, 94% of $TRUMP tokens are reportedly concentrated in just 40 wallets. This high concentration raises the risk of sudden dumps by large holders, making retail investors particularly vulnerable.

同时，据报道，有94％的特朗普代币仅集中在40个钱包中。这种高集中度增加了大型持有人突然垃圾场的风险，使散户投资者特别脆弱。

What Comes Next?

接下来是什么？

The unlocking schedule will continue in the months ahead, with over 800 million $TRUMP tokens set to be released in stages through 2027. While a price recovery is not impossible, it would require a dramatic shift in sentiment and sustained buying pressure—neither of which is currently in sight.

解锁的时间表将在未来几个月内持续下去，超过8亿美元的特朗普代币将于2027年分阶段发布。虽然价格恢复并不是不可能的，但它需要急剧转变和持续的购买压力，目前尚不清楚。

Crypto analyst

加密分析师