該活動引起了人們的擔憂，即特朗普家庭信託擁有大部分硬幣，可能很快就會清算其持股

特朗普硬幣是在特朗普總統一月就職典禮前幾天發射的，在1月19日飆升至73.43美元的高峰。

The event has fueled concerns that the Trump family trust, which holds a significant portion of the coin, may soon liquidate its holdings, potentially deepening the coin’s decline.

該活動引起了人們的擔憂，即特朗普家庭信託擁有大部分硬幣，可能很快就會清算其持股，並有可能加深硬幣的衰落。

$300 Million Unlock Stirs Volatility Concerns

3億美元解鎖攪拌的波動問題

On April 17, 40 million Trump digital tokens, recently valued at approximately $300 million, were released from lock-up restrictions. These coins are now eligible for sale on major platforms like Coinbase, Robinhood, or decentralized exchanges. Among the beneficiaries is CIC Digital LLC, a firm tied to the Trump Organization and controlled by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust.

4月17日，鎖定限制釋放了4000萬特朗普的數字代幣，最近價值約3億美元。這些硬幣現在有資格在Coinbase，Robinhood或Sententrized交流等主要平台上出售。受益人中有CIC Digital LLC，這是一家與特朗普組織相關的公司，並由唐納德·J·特朗普（Donald J. Trump）可撤銷的信託控制。

A $300M $TRUMP token unlock occurred as 40 million tokens entered circulation following the end of a 3-month cliff, with $4M worth set to unlock daily thereafter. Source: Alek via X

3億美元的特朗普代幣解鎖發生了，因為4000萬個令牌在3個月結束後進入流通，此後每天都將耗資400萬美元。資料來源：Alek通過X

The Trump coin, launched days before President Trump’s January inauguration, saw an explosive debut, soaring to a peak of $73.43 on January 19. However, it has since cratered to about $7.50, with Thursday’s 3% dip adding to ongoing bearish momentum. According to CoinGecko, the token’s market cap now hovers around $1.6 billion, down sharply from its initial highs.

特朗普硬幣是在特朗普總統一月就職典禮前幾天發起的，在1月19日飆升至73.43美元的高峰。但是，此後，它的峰值達到了約7.50美元，週四的3％下降增加了持續的看跌勢頭。據Coingecko稱，令牌的市值現在徘徊在16億美元左右，比最初的高點急劇下降。

Trump Coin ($TRUMP) Technical Analysis

特朗普硬幣（特朗普）技術分析

Despite the fanfare around the unlock, $TRUMP has shown little bullish response. Analysts point to a deteriorating technical structure. The coin remains firmly below the Ichimoku Cloud, a widely used indicator that signals trend direction. Moreover, the short-term EMA (Exponential Moving Average) continues to trail below the long-term ones, indicating a sustained bearish trend.

儘管圍繞著解鎖的大張旗鼓，但特朗普幾乎沒有表現出看漲的反應。分析師指出技術結構惡化。硬幣牢固地低於Ichimoku Cloud，這是一個廣泛使用趨勢方向的指標。此外，短期EMA（指數移動平均線）繼續落後於長期的EMA，表明持續的看跌趨勢。

held the $7 weekly low for 13 days despite a major unlock, signaling potential accumulation and a possible rebound. Source: HamadaMark on TradingView

儘管有重大的解鎖，可能積累了潛在的積累和可能的反彈，但每週7美元的低點持續了13天。資料來源：Hamadamark在TradingView上

Further dampening sentiment is the BBTrend indicator, which flipped sharply into negative territory at -6.93 this week, down from a mildly positive 2.35 earlier. This suggests any recent upward momentum has stalled, and sellers are firmly back in control.

BBTREND指標進一步的衰減情緒是，本週急劇地傾斜到-6.93，低於較早的2.35。這表明最近的任何向上勢頭都停滯不前，賣方牢牢地控制了。

“The failure to reclaim the cloud and ongoing EMA misalignment signals that bulls have a steep hill to climb,” said one technical analyst tracking the coin.

一位跟踪硬幣的技術分析師說：“未能收回雲和持續的EMA未對准信號表明，公牛的山坡陡峭。”

Trump’s Trust in Focus

特朗普對重點的信任

Fueling speculation is the possibility that Trump’s revocable trust, which holds stakes in CIC Digital, may offload some of its newly unlocked coins. According to Trump’s financial disclosure, the trust is overseen by his children and can make transactions under the guidance of an ethics attorney. Still, even a partial sell-off could apply immense pressure to the already fragile market.

加油的猜測是，特朗普的可撤銷信託（在CIC數字中都有股份）可能會卸載其一些新解鎖的硬幣。根據特朗普的財務披露，該信託由他的孩子監督，可以在道德律師的指導下進行交易。儘管如此，即使是部分拋售也可能向已經脆弱的市場施加巨大壓力。

Adding to investor concerns, data from Chainalysis reveals that wallets linked to the token’s developers have already pulled in over $350 million—mostly by depositing unlocked coins into liquidity pools, allowing for indirect sales in exchange for USDC. These developers also earned an estimated $35 million in trading fees as liquidity providers.

鏈分析的數據增加了投資者的關注，表明與代幣開發商相關的錢包已經吸收了超過3.5億美元，主要是通過將未鎖定的硬幣存入流動性池中，從而可以間接銷售以交換USDC。這些開發商還估計，作為流動性提供商，這些開發商的交易費用約為3500萬美元。

“This setup makes it easy to gradually cash out while avoiding direct exchange listings,” noted a Chainalysis analyst.

一位鏈分析師指出：“這種設置使得在避免直接交換清單的同時逐漸兌現變得容易。”

Political Heat and Regulatory Loopholes

政治炎熱和法規漏洞

The Trump coin’s launch—and its subsequent plunge—has triggered backlash from lawmakers. Democratic Rep. Sam Liccardo is now backing the MEME Act, a proposed bill aimed at banning federal officials and their families from profiting off meme coins.

特朗普硬幣的發射以及隨後的投資引發了立法者的反對。民主黨眾議員薩姆·列卡多（Sam Liccardo）現在正在支持《模因法》，該法案旨在禁止聯邦官員及其家人從模因硬幣中獲利。

“The First Family is exploiting the public through meme coins. This loophole invites insider trading and foreign influence.”

“第一家庭正在通過模因硬幣來利用公眾。這個漏洞邀請內幕交易和外國影響力。”

Despite these concerns, the SEC has so far stayed on the sidelines. Since $TRUMP is not classified as a security, it remains outside the agency’s jurisdiction, sparking renewed calls for regulatory clarity around meme coins.

儘管有這些擔憂，但SEC迄今仍在場上。由於特朗普沒有被歸類為安全，因此它仍然不在該機構的管轄範圍之內，引發了圍繞模因硬幣的監管清晰的呼籲。

High Risk, High Drama

高風險，高戲劇性

The broader crypto community remains divided over $TRUMP’s future. While President Trump has embraced his role as the “crypto president,” backing multiple blockchain ventures and even signing executive orders to shape federal digital asset policy, critics argue this dual role represents a clear conflict of interest.

更廣泛的加密社區在特朗普的未來中仍然存在分歧。儘管特朗普總統接受了他作為“加密總統”的角色，但支持多個區塊鏈冒險，甚至簽署了塑造聯邦數字資產政策的行政命令，但批評家認為，這種雙重角色代表了明顯的利益衝突。

After holding steady at $7 for 13 days post-unlock, $TRUMP appears to have bottomed out and could be ready for a rebound. Source: Captain Faibik via X

在Unlock後13天保持穩定為7美元之後，$ Trump似乎已經觸底了，可以為反彈做好準備。資料來源：Faibik上尉通過X

“There’s absolutely a conflict,” said Ann Koppuzha, a business law professor at Santa Clara University. “Trump’s policies could directly benefit his own crypto ventures.”

聖克拉拉大學商業法教授安·科普扎（Ann Koppuzha）說：“絕對有衝突。” “特朗普的政策可以直接受益於自己的加密貨幣。”

Meanwhile, 94% of $TRUMP tokens are reportedly concentrated in just 40 wallets. This high concentration raises the risk of sudden dumps by large holders, making retail investors particularly vulnerable.

同時，據報導，有94％的特朗普代幣僅集中在40個錢包中。這種高集中度增加了大型持有人突然垃圾場的風險，使散戶投資者特別脆弱。

What Comes Next?

接下來是什麼？

The unlocking schedule will continue in the months ahead, with over 800 million $TRUMP tokens set to be released in stages through 2027. While a price recovery is not impossible, it would require a dramatic shift in sentiment and sustained buying pressure—neither of which is currently in sight.

解鎖的時間表將在未來幾個月內持續下去，超過8億美元的特朗普代幣將於2027年分階段發布。雖然價格恢復並不是不可能的，但它需要急劇轉變和持續的購買壓力，目前尚不清楚。

Crypto analyst

加密分析師