Eugene Fama预测比特币将在十年内毫无价值

著名的“现代金融之父”尤金·法玛（Eugene Fama）预测，比特币将在十年内毫无价值。为什么？ Fama在1月30日的Capitalis插曲中说，加密货币“违反了交换媒介的所有规则”。

Eugene Fama, widely regarded as the “Father of modern finance,” has cast doubt on the enduring value of Bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency will be worthless in a decade.

尤金·法玛（Eugene Fama）被广泛认为是“现代金融之父”，对比特币的持久价值表示怀疑，预测加密货币将在十年内毫无价值。

In an appearance on the Jan. 30 episode of the Capitalisn’t podcast, Fama asserted that cryptocurrencies “violate all the rules of a medium of exchange.”

Fama在1月30日的Capitalis Not Podcast上的一次露面时断言，加密货币“违反了交换媒介的所有规则”。

“They don’t have a stable real value. You know, they have highly variable real value. That kind of medium of exchange is not supposed to survive.”

“他们没有稳定的实际价值。您知道，它们具有高度可变的实际价值。这种交换媒介不应该生存。”

Fama, who is best known for authoring the efficient markets hypothesis in the 1960s, didn’t definitively guarantee that Bitcoin will be worthless. However, he agreed when podcast host and finance professor Luigi Zingales asked him to estimate the probability that, “within 10 years, the value of Bitcoin would go to zero?”

Fama以在1960年代创作了高效的市场假设而闻名，他并没有明确保证比特币将毫无价值。但是，他同意播客主持人和财务教授路易吉·辛格莱斯（Luigi Zingales）要求他估计“在10年内，比特币的价值将归零？”

“I would say it’s close to one,” Fama replied.

“我会说它接近一个，” Fama回答。

The interview began with Fama expressing his disapproval of the term “economic bubble,” arguing that bubbles need to have a predictable ending, but nothing in the market is predictable.

采访始于Fama表示对“经济泡沫”一词的不赞成，认为泡沫需要具有可预测的结局，但市场上没有任何预测。

Journalist Bethany McLean, who cohosts the show with Zingales, then asked Fama whether Bitcoin was a bubble, to which he replied that he hopes it bursts.

记者伯大尼·麦克莱恩（Bethany McLean）与辛加莱斯（Zingales）共同主持了演出，然后问法玛（Fama）是否是比特币是泡沫，他回答他希望它会破裂。

“I’m hoping it would bust because, if it doesn’t, we have to start all over with monetary theory — it’s gone,” Fama said. “It might be gone already.”

Fama说：“我希望它会破产，因为，如果没有，我们必须从货币理论开始 - 它已经消失了。” “它可能已经消失了。”

“All we thought we know about monetary theory says [cryptocurrency] shouldn’t survive,” Fama adds.

Fama补充说：“我们认为我们对货币理论的了解[加密货币]不应该生存。”

Crypto violates all the rules of a medium of exchange as they don’t have stable value and people won’t use it as a currency, he explained. This sentiment, predictably so, angered some in the crypto community.

他解释说，Crypto违反了交换媒介的所有规则，因为它们没有稳定的价值，人们不会将其用作货币。可以预见的是，这种情绪激怒了加密货币社区的一些情绪。

“What about stablecoins?”

“稳定币呢？”

McLean posed that question to Fama, who said using U.S. dollars on the blockchain “could work,” because dollars have “stable, real value.”

麦克莱恩（McLean）向FAMA提出了这个问题，Fama说，在区块链“可以工作”上使用美元，因为美元具有“稳定，真正的价值”。

Another big threat to Bitcoin voiced by Fama is 51% attack. Although such an attack would have been costly, Fama says that every transaction system faces “a problem of verification and a problem of who is enforcing the rules.”

FAMA对比特币表达的另一个大威胁是51％的攻击。尽管这种攻击本来是昂贵的，但FAMA表示，每个交易系统都面临“验证问题和谁在执行规则的问题”。

Fama, who was awarded with a Nobel Prize in economics in 2013, also insists that — unlike Bitcoin — gold is more favorable because it has many use cases. And the government’s role in the crypto market may speed up the loss of value of Bitcoin.

Fama于2013年获得诺贝尔经济学奖，他还坚持认为，与比特币不同，黄金更有利，因为它有很多用例。政府在加密市场中的作用可能会加快比特币价值损失。

It’s worth noting that Fama essentially checked the boxes of the main surface-level threats to decentralized digital money, but that none of his predictions were expressed with utmost confidence. 

值得注意的是，FAMA实质上检查了对分散数字资金的主要表面级别威胁的框，但他的预测都没有最大程度地表达。

“His open-mindedness for admitting that he might be wrong… he’s willing to adapt his universe at age 86,” Zingales said. “I think that’s really remarkable.”

Zingales说：“他的开放态度承认自己可能是错的……他愿意在86岁时适应自己的宇宙。” “我认为这真的很了不起。”