Eugene Fama預測比特幣將在十年內毫無價值

著名的“現代金融之父”尤金·法瑪（Eugene Fama）預測，比特幣將在十年內毫無價值。為什麼？ Fama在1月30日的Capitalis插曲中說，加密貨幣“違反了交換媒介的所有規則”。

Eugene Fama, widely regarded as the “Father of modern finance,” has cast doubt on the enduring value of Bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency will be worthless in a decade.

尤金·法瑪（Eugene Fama）被廣泛認為是“現代金融之父”，對比特幣的持久價值表示懷疑，預測加密貨幣將在十年內毫無價值。

In an appearance on the Jan. 30 episode of the Capitalisn’t podcast, Fama asserted that cryptocurrencies “violate all the rules of a medium of exchange.”

Fama在1月30日的《 Capitalis Not Podcast》的一集中露面時斷言，加密貨幣“違反了交換媒介的所有規則”。

“They don’t have a stable real value. You know, they have highly variable real value. That kind of medium of exchange is not supposed to survive.”

“他們沒有穩定的實際價值。您知道，它們具有高度可變的實際價值。這種交換媒介不應該生存。”

Fama, who is best known for authoring the efficient markets hypothesis in the 1960s, didn’t definitively guarantee that Bitcoin will be worthless. However, he agreed when podcast host and finance professor Luigi Zingales asked him to estimate the probability that, “within 10 years, the value of Bitcoin would go to zero?”

Fama以在1960年代創作了高效的市場假設而聞名，他並沒有明確保證比特幣將毫無價值。但是，他同意播客主持人和財務教授路易吉·辛格萊斯（Luigi Zingales）要求他估計“在10年內，比特幣的價值將歸零？”

“I would say it’s close to one,” Fama replied.

“我會說它接近一個，” Fama回答。

The interview began with Fama expressing his disapproval of the term “economic bubble,” arguing that bubbles need to have a predictable ending, but nothing in the market is predictable.

採訪始於Fama表示對“經濟泡沫”一詞的不贊成，認為泡沫需要具有可預測的結局，但市場上沒有任何預測。

Journalist Bethany McLean, who cohosts the show with Zingales, then asked Fama whether Bitcoin was a bubble, to which he replied that he hopes it bursts.

記者伯大尼·麥克萊恩（Bethany McLean）與辛加萊斯（Zingales）共同主持了演出，然後問法瑪（Fama）是否是比特幣是泡沫，他回答他希望它會破裂。

“I’m hoping it would bust because, if it doesn’t, we have to start all over with monetary theory — it’s gone,” Fama said. “It might be gone already.”

Fama說：“我希望它會破產，因為，如果沒有，我們必須從貨幣理論開始 - 它已經消失了。” “它可能已經消失了。”

“All we thought we know about monetary theory says [cryptocurrency] shouldn’t survive,” Fama adds.

Fama補充說：“我們認為我們對貨幣理論的了解[加密貨幣]不應該生存。”

Crypto violates all the rules of a medium of exchange as they don’t have stable value and people won’t use it as a currency, he explained. This sentiment, predictably so, angered some in the crypto community.

他解釋說，Crypto違反了交換媒介的所有規則，因為它們沒有穩定的價值，人們不會將其用作貨幣。可以預見的是，這種情緒激怒了加密貨幣社區的一些情緒。

“What about stablecoins?”

“穩定幣呢？”

McLean posed that question to Fama, who said using U.S. dollars on the blockchain “could work,” because dollars have “stable, real value.”

麥克萊恩（McLean）向FAMA提出了這個問題，Fama說，在區塊鏈“可以工作”上使用美元，因為美元具有“穩定，真正的價值”。

Another big threat to Bitcoin voiced by Fama is 51% attack. Although such an attack would have been costly, Fama says that every transaction system faces “a problem of verification and a problem of who is enforcing the rules.”

FAMA對比特幣表達的另一個大威脅是51％的攻擊。儘管這種攻擊本來是昂貴的，但FAMA表示，每個交易系統都面臨“驗證問題和誰在執行規則的問題”。

Fama, who was awarded with a Nobel Prize in economics in 2013, also insists that — unlike Bitcoin — gold is more favorable because it has many use cases. And the government’s role in the crypto market may speed up the loss of value of Bitcoin.

Fama於2013年獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎，他還堅持認為，與比特幣不同，黃金更有利，因為它有很多用例。政府在加密市場中的作用可能會加快比特幣價值損失。

It’s worth noting that Fama essentially checked the boxes of the main surface-level threats to decentralized digital money, but that none of his predictions were expressed with utmost confidence. 

值得注意的是，FAMA實質上檢查了對分散數字資金的主要表面級別威脅的框，但他的預測都沒有最大程度地表達。

“His open-mindedness for admitting that he might be wrong… he’s willing to adapt his universe at age 86,” Zingales said. “I think that’s really remarkable.”

Zingales說：“他的開放態度承認自己可能是錯的……他願意在86歲時適應自己的宇宙。” “我認為這真的很了不起。”