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以太坊(ETH)在这个周期中在创纪录的 FUD 中苦苦挣扎,投资者的注意力转移到了其他地方。
While Bitcoin [BTC] and Solana [SOL] investors celebrated gains of 130% and 850%, respectively, in 2023,本線コピー
虽然比特币 [BTC] 和 Solana [SOL] 投资者在 2023 年分别实现了 130% 和 850% 的涨幅,但 Main Line Copy
Ethereum [ETH] investors had to make do with only 8% gains YTD (year-to-date). This lackluster performance has not gone unnoticed by the crypto community.
以太坊 [ETH] 投资者今年迄今(年初至今)仅获得 8% 的收益。这种黯淡的表现并没有被加密社区忽视。
According to Zaheer Ebtikar of crypto hedge fund Split Capital, ETH has lagged behind others due to ‘middle child syndrome.’ In a recent Substack post, Ebtikar explained that investors, both institutional and private capital, have shifted their attention elsewhere.
加密对冲基金 Split Capital 的 Zaheer Ebtikar 表示,由于“中童综合症”,ETH 落后于其他基金。在最近的 Substack 帖子中,Ebtikar 解释说,机构和私人资本投资者已将注意力转移到其他地方。
“$ETH very much struggles with middle-child syndrome. The asset is not in vogue with institutional investors, the asset lost favor in crypto private capital circles, and retail is nowhere to be seen bidding anything at this size.”
“$ETH 深受中童综合症困扰。该资产不受机构投资者的欢迎,在加密货币私人资本圈中失去了青睐,并且没有看到散户以如此规模的价格竞标任何东西。”
Investors abandon ETH
投资者放弃以太币
Among the crypto majors, ETH offered investors only 8% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis, compared to double digits seen in Bitcoin [BTC] and Solana [SOL].
在加密货币专业中,ETH 年初至今仅为投资者提供 8% 的收益,而比特币 [BTC] 和 Solana [SOL] 的收益为两位数。
Ebtikar linked the underperformance to investors’ focus on BTC and other ETH competitors like SOL and Sui [SUI].
Ebtikar 将表现不佳与投资者对 BTC 和其他 ETH 竞争对手(如 SOL 和 Sui [SUI])的关注联系起来。
“The narrative has shifted from ‘ETH everything’ in 2021 to ‘BTC and other crypto’ in 2022 and 2023. Within the ‘other crypto’ category, there have been clear favorites such as $SOL, $SUI, and $GRT.”
“叙述已经从 2021 年的‘ETH 一切’转向 2022 年和 2023 年的‘BTC 和其他加密货币’。在‘其他加密货币’类别中,有明显的最爱,例如 $SOL、$SUI 和 $GRT。”
The executive noted that there are three capital sources in the crypto space: institutional (through ETFs/futures), private capital (liquid funds, VCs), and finally, retail. But only the first two mattered at the moment.
该高管指出,加密货币领域存在三种资本来源:机构资本(通过 ETF/期货)、私人资本(流动基金、风险投资),最后是零售资本。但目前只有前两个重要。
“We have 3 sources of capital in crypto: institutional (ETFs/futures), private (funds, VCs), and finally, native (retail). Only the first 2 mattered in this cycle. And $ETH is too large for native capital to support while simultaneously being able to support other index assets like $SOL and other large caps like $TIA, $TAO, and $SUI.”
“我们在加密领域有 3 个资金来源:机构资金(ETF/期货)、私人资金(基金、风险投资),最后是本地资金(零售)。在这个周期中只有前两个重要。对于本土资本来说,$ETH 太大了,无法同时支持 $SOL 等其他指数资产以及 $TIA、$TAO 和 $SUI 等其他大盘股。”
He added that institutional capital was heavily focused on BTC (through ETFs). ETH ETFs, on the other hand, have seen net outflows of $546 million since they debuted in July.
他补充说,机构资本主要集中在 BTC(通过 ETF)。另一方面,自 7 月份推出以来,ETH ETF 已出现 5.46 亿美元的净流出。
“Institutions are piling into $BTC (through ETFs) while simultaneously pulling money out of $ETH (ETFs saw net outflows of $546 million since debut in July, underscoring the lack of interest).”
“机构正在(通过 ETF)大量买入 BTC,同时从 ETH 中撤出资金(ETF 自 7 月推出以来净流出 5.46 亿美元,凸显了兴趣的缺乏)。”
According to Ebtikar, institutional interest in BTC was largely due to the approval of ETFs in the United States, which has helped the premier cryptocurrency to decouple from the broader market.
Ebtikar 表示,机构对 BTC 的兴趣很大程度上是由于美国 ETF 的批准,这有助于这种主要的加密货币与更广泛的市场脱钩。
On the other hand, Ebtikar stated that private capital viewed ETH as overvalued and redirected capital to other ETH competitors perceived as undervalued, such as SOL, Celestia [TIA], and SUI.
另一方面,Ebtikar 表示,私人资本认为 ETH 被高估,并将资本转向其他被认为被低估的 ETH 竞争对手,例如 SOL、Celestia [TIA] 和 SUI。
“$ETH is the only asset that is too large for native capital to support while simultaneously being able to support other index assets like $SOL and other large caps.
“$ETH 是唯一一种对于本土资本来说太大而无法支持的资产,同时又能够支持 $SOL 和其他大盘股等其他指数资产。
Coinbase analysts also echoed the above sentiment in their September report.
Coinbase 分析师在 9 月份的报告中也呼应了上述观点。
“The narrative has shifted from ‘ETH everything’ in 2021 to ‘BTC and other crypto’ in 2022 and 2023. Within the ‘other crypto’ category, there have been clear favorites such as $SOL, $SUI, and $GRT.”
“叙述已经从 2021 年的‘ETH 一切’转向 2022 年和 2023 年的‘BTC 和其他加密货币’。在‘其他加密货币’类别中,有明显的最爱,例如 $SOL、$SUI 和 $GRT。”
Source: SOLETH ratio, TradingView
资料来源:SOLETH 比率,TradingView
The SOLETH ratio, which tracks SOL’s value relative to ETH, has exploded since last year, cementing Ebtikar’s thesis that investors might have rotated to SOL from ETH.
追踪 SOL 相对于 ETH 价值的 SOLETH 比率自去年以来呈爆炸式增长,证实了 Ebtikar 的论点,即投资者可能已从 ETH 转向 SOL。
That being said, Ebitaker also acknowledged that ETH was the only altcoin with an approved ETF in the US.
话虽如此,Ebitaker 也承认 ETH 是唯一在美国获得批准的 ETF 的山寨币。
“As the only altcoin with an ETF in the US, $ETH could see renewed interest, especially from institutional investors, from 2025. Likely ETF buyers, changes within the Ethereum Foundation, and Trump.”
“作为美国唯一拥有 ETF 的山寨币,从 2025 年开始,美元 ETH 可能会重新引起人们的兴趣,尤其是机构投资者的兴趣。可能的 ETF 买家、以太坊基金会内部的变化以及特朗普。”
At press time, ETH was valued at $2.4k and has been consolidating between $2.3K and $2.5K since the beginning of October.
截至发稿时,ETH 的估值为 2400 美元,自 10 月初以来一直在 2300 美元至 2500 美元之间盘整。
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
来源:ETH/USDT,TradingView
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