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以太坊(ETH)在這個週期中在創紀錄的 FUD 中苦苦掙扎,投資者的注意力轉移到了其他地方。
While Bitcoin [BTC] and Solana [SOL] investors celebrated gains of 130% and 850%, respectively, in 2023,本線コピー
雖然比特幣 [BTC] 和 Solana [SOL] 投資者在 2023 年分別實現了 130% 和 850% 的漲幅,但 Main Line Copy
Ethereum [ETH] investors had to make do with only 8% gains YTD (year-to-date). This lackluster performance has not gone unnoticed by the crypto community.
以太幣 [ETH] 投資者今年迄今(年初至今)僅獲得 8% 的收益。這種黯淡的表現並沒有被加密社群忽視。
According to Zaheer Ebtikar of crypto hedge fund Split Capital, ETH has lagged behind others due to ‘middle child syndrome.’ In a recent Substack post, Ebtikar explained that investors, both institutional and private capital, have shifted their attention elsewhere.
加密對沖基金 Split Capital 的 Zaheer Ebtikar 表示,由於“中童症候群”,ETH 落後於其他基金。在最近的 Substack 貼文中,Ebtikar 解釋說,機構和私人資本投資者已將注意力轉移到其他地方。
“$ETH very much struggles with middle-child syndrome. The asset is not in vogue with institutional investors, the asset lost favor in crypto private capital circles, and retail is nowhere to be seen bidding anything at this size.”
「$ETH 深受中童症候群困擾。該資產不受機構投資者的歡迎,在加密貨幣私人資本圈中失去了青睞,並且沒有看到散戶以如此規模的價格競標任何東西。
Investors abandon ETH
投資者放棄以太坊
Among the crypto majors, ETH offered investors only 8% on a YTD (year-to-date) basis, compared to double digits seen in Bitcoin [BTC] and Solana [SOL].
在加密貨幣專業中,ETH 年初至今僅為投資者提供 8% 的收益,而比特幣 [BTC] 和 Solana [SOL] 的收益為兩位數。
Ebtikar linked the underperformance to investors’ focus on BTC and other ETH competitors like SOL and Sui [SUI].
Ebtikar 將表現不佳與投資者對 BTC 和其他 ETH 競爭對手(如 SOL 和 Sui [SUI])的關注聯繫起來。
“The narrative has shifted from ‘ETH everything’ in 2021 to ‘BTC and other crypto’ in 2022 and 2023. Within the ‘other crypto’ category, there have been clear favorites such as $SOL, $SUI, and $GRT.”
「敘述已經從2021 年的『ETH 一切』轉向2022 年和2023 年的『BTC 和其他加密貨幣』。在『其他加密貨幣』類別中,有明顯的最愛,例如$SOL、$SUI 和$GRT 。
The executive noted that there are three capital sources in the crypto space: institutional (through ETFs/futures), private capital (liquid funds, VCs), and finally, retail. But only the first two mattered at the moment.
該高層指出,加密貨幣領域有三種資本來源:機構資本(透過 ETF/期貨)、私人資本(流動基金、創投),最後是零售資本。但目前只有前兩個重要。
“We have 3 sources of capital in crypto: institutional (ETFs/futures), private (funds, VCs), and finally, native (retail). Only the first 2 mattered in this cycle. And $ETH is too large for native capital to support while simultaneously being able to support other index assets like $SOL and other large caps like $TIA, $TAO, and $SUI.”
「我們在加密領域有 3 個資金來源:機構資金(ETF/期貨)、私人資金(基金、創投),最後是本地資金(零售)。在這個週期中只有前兩個重要。對於本土資本來說,$ETH 太大了,無法同時支持 $SOL 等其他指數資產以及 $TIA、$TAO 和 $SUI 等其他大盤股。
He added that institutional capital was heavily focused on BTC (through ETFs). ETH ETFs, on the other hand, have seen net outflows of $546 million since they debuted in July.
他補充說,機構資本主要集中在 BTC(透過 ETF)。另一方面,自 7 月推出以來,ETH ETF 已出現 5.46 億美元的淨流出。
“Institutions are piling into $BTC (through ETFs) while simultaneously pulling money out of $ETH (ETFs saw net outflows of $546 million since debut in July, underscoring the lack of interest).”
「機構正在(透過 ETF)大量買入 BTC,同時從 ETH 中撤出資金(ETF 自 7 月推出以來淨流出 5.46 億美元,凸顯了興趣的缺乏)。”
According to Ebtikar, institutional interest in BTC was largely due to the approval of ETFs in the United States, which has helped the premier cryptocurrency to decouple from the broader market.
Ebtikar 表示,機構對 BTC 的興趣很大程度上是由於美國 ETF 的批准,這有助於這種主要的加密貨幣與更廣泛的市場脫鉤。
On the other hand, Ebtikar stated that private capital viewed ETH as overvalued and redirected capital to other ETH competitors perceived as undervalued, such as SOL, Celestia [TIA], and SUI.
另一方面,Ebtikar 表示,私人資本認為 ETH 被高估,並將資本轉向其他被認為被低估的 ETH 競爭對手,例如 SOL、Celestia [TIA] 和 SUI。
“$ETH is the only asset that is too large for native capital to support while simultaneously being able to support other index assets like $SOL and other large caps.
「$ETH 是唯一一種對於本土資本來說太大而無法支持的資產,同時又能夠支持 $SOL 和其他大盤股等其他指數資產。
Coinbase analysts also echoed the above sentiment in their September report.
Coinbase 分析師在 9 月的報告中也呼應了上述觀點。
“The narrative has shifted from ‘ETH everything’ in 2021 to ‘BTC and other crypto’ in 2022 and 2023. Within the ‘other crypto’ category, there have been clear favorites such as $SOL, $SUI, and $GRT.”
「敘述已經從2021 年的『ETH 一切』轉向2022 年和2023 年的『BTC 和其他加密貨幣』。在『其他加密貨幣』類別中,有明顯的最愛,例如$SOL、$SUI 和$GRT 。
Source: SOLETH ratio, TradingView
資料來源:SOLETH 比,TradingView
The SOLETH ratio, which tracks SOL’s value relative to ETH, has exploded since last year, cementing Ebtikar’s thesis that investors might have rotated to SOL from ETH.
追蹤 SOL 相對於 ETH 價值的 SOLETH 比率自去年以來呈爆炸式增長,證實了 Ebtikar 的論點,即投資者可能已從 ETH 轉向 SOL。
That being said, Ebitaker also acknowledged that ETH was the only altcoin with an approved ETF in the US.
話雖如此,Ebitaker 也承認 ETH 是美國唯一獲得批准的 ETF 的山寨幣。
“As the only altcoin with an ETF in the US, $ETH could see renewed interest, especially from institutional investors, from 2025. Likely ETF buyers, changes within the Ethereum Foundation, and Trump.”
「作為美國唯一擁有ETF 的山寨幣,從2025 年開始,美元ETH 可能會重新引起人們的興趣,尤其是機構投資者的興趣。可能的ETF 買家、以太坊基金會內部的變化以及川普。
At press time, ETH was valued at $2.4k and has been consolidating between $2.3K and $2.5K since the beginning of October.
截至發稿時,ETH 的估值為 2,400 美元,自 10 月初以來一直在 2,300 美元至 2,500 美元之間盤整。
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
來源:ETH/USDT,TradingView
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