在 SEC 批准截止日期之际，以太坊现货 ETF 前景黯淡

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 批准以太坊现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的预期已经下降，贾斯汀·孙 (Justin Sun) 等行业人士预计在 5 月份的最后期限之前将被拒绝。 Polymarket 数据显示，获得批准的可能性仅为 11%，比之前的估计大幅下降。彭博社的 Eric Balchunas 也将其批准几率降低至 35%，理由是比特币现货 ETF 批准期间缺乏积极迹象。建议加密行业重点对监管机构进行有关加密货币的教育，以提高接受度。

Diminishing Prospects for Ethereum Spot ETFs as SEC Approval Deadline Looms

随着 SEC 批准截止日期的临近，以太坊现货 ETF 的前景正在减弱

Anticipation for the imminent approval of highly anticipated Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dwindled significantly in recent weeks. Industry pundits and market analysis now cast doubt on the likelihood of a favorable decision meeting the impending May deadline.

最近几周，人们对美国证券交易委员会（SEC）即将批准备受期待的以太坊现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的预期大幅下降。行业专家和市场分析现在对在即将到来的五月份最后期限内做出有利决定的可能性表示怀疑。

Justin Sun Predicts Rejection

孙宇晨预测会被拒绝

Justin Sun, the visionary behind the Tron network, has unequivocally expressed his pessimism regarding the SEC's approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the coming month. Sun maintains that the crypto industry has yet to adequately prepare regulators and authorities to fully comprehend the intricacies of digital assets, despite the industry's perceived readiness.

Tron 网络背后的远见卓识者贾斯汀·孙 (Justin Sun) 明确表达了他对 SEC 在下个月批准现货以太坊 ETF 的悲观情绪。 Sun 认为，尽管加密行业已做好准备，但监管机构和当局尚未做好充分准备，以充分理解数字资产的复杂性。

In a recent social media post, Sun candidly stated, "My honest opinion (NFA) is that an Ethereum ETF won't be approved in May. The crypto industry still needs to prepare for a long-term education with regulators, focusing on helping them understand crypto. But we have always been here, haven't we?"

在最近的社交媒体帖子中，Sun 坦诚地表示，“我的诚实观点（NFA）是，以太坊 ETF 不会在 5 月份获得批准。加密行业仍需要做好与监管机构进行长期教育的准备，重点是帮助他们了解加密货币，但我们一直都在这里，不是吗？”

Skepticism from Industry Leaders

行业领袖的怀疑

Sun's sentiments echo those of other prominent figures within the crypto community. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, recently hinted at the possibility of rejection due to the SEC's noticeably reduced engagement with ETH spot ETF issuers compared to previous interactions.

孙宇晨的观点与加密货币社区内其他知名人士的观点相呼应。 ETF Store 总裁 Nate Geraci 最近暗示，由于 SEC 与 ETH 现货 ETF 发行人的互动与之前的互动相比明显减少，因此有可能被拒绝。

While acknowledging the logical basis for this conclusion, Geraci also posed the question of whether the Commission had learned from the "clown show" surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs. He outlined two potential outcomes for spot ETH ETFs: approval by the Commission or legal challenges.

在承认这一结论的逻辑基础的同时，Geraci 还提出了一个问题：委员会是否从围绕现货比特币 ETF 的“小丑表演”中吸取了教训。他概述了现货 ETH ETF 的两个潜在结果：获得委员会的批准或面临法律挑战。

Dwindling Approval Odds

批准几率下降

Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, paints a bleak picture for the prospects of ETH spot ETF approval in May. The platform estimates the likelihood of acceptance at a mere 11%, a sharp decline from the 76% odds accorded to spot Bitcoin ETFs when they were approved on January 10.

去中心化预测市场平台 Polymarket 的数据为 5 月份 ETH 现货 ETF 批准的前景描绘了一幅黯淡的图景。该平台估计接受的可能性仅为 11%，与 1 月 10 日批准现货比特币 ETF 时的 76% 相比，大幅下降。

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has likewise revised his approval odds to approximately 35%, down from an initial projection of 70% in February. Balchunas highlighted the absence of the same factors that had led him to an optimistic prognosis for spot Bitcoin ETFs, leaving him less confident this time around. Nonetheless, he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for spot ETF acceptance.

彭博资讯 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 分析师埃里克·巴尔丘纳斯 (Eric Balchunas) 同样将其支持率从 2 月份最初预测的 70% 下调至 35% 左右。 Balchunas 强调，当时他对现货比特币 ETF 做出乐观预测的因素并不存在，这让他这次信心不足。尽管如此，他仍然对现货 ETF 接受的长期前景持乐观态度。

Conclusion

结论

As the May deadline for SEC approval of Ethereum spot ETFs approaches, the industry's hopes dwindle. Industry leaders express doubts about the likelihood of approval, citing the SEC's perceived lack of understanding and engagement with the crypto space. Polymarket and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts corroborate these concerns, projecting low approval odds. While the wait continues, the industry braces itself for the possibility of rejection or a further delay in the realization of spot ETH ETFs.

随着 SEC 批准以太坊现货 ETF 的 5 月份最后期限临近，业界的希望逐渐渺茫。行业领导者对批准的可能性表示怀疑，理由是 SEC 认为缺乏对加密领域的了解和参与。 Polymarket 和 Bloomberg Intelligence 分析师证实了这些担忧，预计批准几率较低。在等待仍在继续的同时，业界也做好了现货 ETH ETF 变现可能被拒绝或进一步延迟的准备。