在 SEC 批准截止日期之際，以太坊現貨 ETF 前景黯淡

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 批准以太坊現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的預期已經下降，賈斯汀·孫 (Justin Sun) 等行業人士預計在 5 月的最後期限之前將被拒絕。 Polymarket 數據顯示，獲得批准的可能性僅為 11%，比先前的估計大幅下降。彭博社的 Eric Balchunas 也將其批准幾率降低至 35%，理由是比特幣現貨 ETF 批准期間缺乏積極跡象。建議加密產業專注於對監管機構進行加密貨幣的教育，以提高接受度。

Diminishing Prospects for Ethereum Spot ETFs as SEC Approval Deadline Looms

隨著 SEC 批准截止日期的臨近，以太坊現貨 ETF 的前景正在減弱

Anticipation for the imminent approval of highly anticipated Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has dwindled significantly in recent weeks. Industry pundits and market analysis now cast doubt on the likelihood of a favorable decision meeting the impending May deadline.

最近幾週，人們對美國證券交易委員會（SEC）即將批准備受期待的以太坊現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）的預期大幅下降。行業專家和市場分析現在對在即將到來的五月最後期限內做出有利決定的可能性表示懷疑。

Justin Sun Predicts Rejection

孫宇晨預測會被拒絕

Justin Sun, the visionary behind the Tron network, has unequivocally expressed his pessimism regarding the SEC's approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in the coming month. Sun maintains that the crypto industry has yet to adequately prepare regulators and authorities to fully comprehend the intricacies of digital assets, despite the industry's perceived readiness.

Tron 網路背後的遠見卓識者賈斯汀·孫 (Justin Sun) 明確表達了他對 SEC 在下個月批准現貨以太坊 ETF 的悲觀情緒。 Sun 認為，儘管加密產業已做好準備，但監管機構和當局尚未做好充分準備，以充分理解數位資產的複雜性。

In a recent social media post, Sun candidly stated, "My honest opinion (NFA) is that an Ethereum ETF won't be approved in May. The crypto industry still needs to prepare for a long-term education with regulators, focusing on helping them understand crypto. But we have always been here, haven't we?"

在最近的社群媒體貼文中，Sun 坦誠地表示，「我的誠實觀點（NFA）是，以太坊ETF 不會在5 月獲得批准。加密行業仍需要做好與監管機構進行長期教育的準備，重點是幫助他們了解加密貨幣，但我們一直都在這裡，不是嗎？

Skepticism from Industry Leaders

業界領袖的懷疑

Sun's sentiments echo those of other prominent figures within the crypto community. Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, recently hinted at the possibility of rejection due to the SEC's noticeably reduced engagement with ETH spot ETF issuers compared to previous interactions.

孫宇晨的觀點與加密貨幣社群內其他知名人士的觀點相呼應。 ETF Store 總裁 Nate Geraci 最近暗示，由於 SEC 與 ETH 現貨 ETF 發行人的互動與先前的互動相比明顯減少，因此有可能被拒絕。

While acknowledging the logical basis for this conclusion, Geraci also posed the question of whether the Commission had learned from the "clown show" surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs. He outlined two potential outcomes for spot ETH ETFs: approval by the Commission or legal challenges.

在承認這一結論的邏輯基礎的同時，Geraci 也提出了一個問題：委員會是否從圍繞現貨比特幣 ETF 的「小丑表演」中吸取了教訓。他概述了現貨 ETH ETF 的兩個潛在結果：獲得委員會的批准或面臨法律挑戰。

Dwindling Approval Odds

批准幾率下降

Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, paints a bleak picture for the prospects of ETH spot ETF approval in May. The platform estimates the likelihood of acceptance at a mere 11%, a sharp decline from the 76% odds accorded to spot Bitcoin ETFs when they were approved on January 10.

去中心化預測市場平台 Polymarket 的數據為 5 月 ETH 現貨 ETF 批准的前景描繪了一幅黯淡的圖景。該平台估計接受的可能性僅為 11%，與 1 月 10 日批准現貨比特幣 ETF 時的 76% 相比，大幅下降。

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has likewise revised his approval odds to approximately 35%, down from an initial projection of 70% in February. Balchunas highlighted the absence of the same factors that had led him to an optimistic prognosis for spot Bitcoin ETFs, leaving him less confident this time around. Nonetheless, he remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for spot ETF acceptance.

彭博資訊 (Bloomberg Intelligence) 分析師 Eric Balchunas 同樣將其支持率從 2 月最初預測的 70% 下調至 35% 左右。 Balchunas 強調，當時他對現貨比特幣 ETF 做出樂觀預測的因素並不存在，這讓他這次信心不足。儘管如此，他仍然對現貨 ETF 接受的長期前景持樂觀態度。

Conclusion

結論

As the May deadline for SEC approval of Ethereum spot ETFs approaches, the industry's hopes dwindle. Industry leaders express doubts about the likelihood of approval, citing the SEC's perceived lack of understanding and engagement with the crypto space. Polymarket and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts corroborate these concerns, projecting low approval odds. While the wait continues, the industry braces itself for the possibility of rejection or a further delay in the realization of spot ETH ETFs.

隨著 SEC 批准以太坊現貨 ETF 的 5 月最後期限臨近，業界的希望逐漸渺茫。行業領導者對批准的可能性表示懷疑，理由是 SEC 認為缺乏對加密領域的了解和參與。 Polymarket 和 Bloomberg Intelligence 分析師證實了這些擔憂，預計批准幾率較低。在等待仍在繼續的同時，業界也做好了現貨 ETH ETF 變現可能被拒絕或進一步延遲的準備。