以太坊2022年表现黯淡：Vitalik的ETH抛售、升级的意外影响以及“新兴趋势”的缺失引发担忧

以太坊曾被视为加密市场的“蓝筹资产”，外界普遍认为其价格未来将再创新高

Once regarded as the 'blue-chip asset' of the crypto market, Ethereum was widely expected to reach new heights, potentially even surpassing $10,000. But ETH's performance since 2022 has left many scratching their heads. Does this spell trouble for Vitalik and Ethereum's future? Let's unpack the reasons.

以太坊一度被视为加密市场的“蓝筹资产”，人们普遍预计以太坊将达到新的高度，甚至有可能突破 10,000 美元。但 ETH 自 2022 年以来的表现却让许多人摸不着头脑。这会给 Vitalik 和以太坊的未来带来麻烦吗？让我们来分析一下原因。

1. Expectation vs. Reality Gap

1. 期望与现实的差距

Major upgrades to Ethereum over the past two years have fueled optimism about its future, especially regarding the 'deflationary' impact on ETH supply. But the actual market performance has been surprising. Despite scaling and upgrades, ETH has lagged behind BTC and other tokens like Solana.

过去两年以太坊的重大升级激发了人们对其未来的乐观情绪，尤其是对以太坊供应的“通缩”影响。但实际的市场表现却让人大跌眼镜。尽管进行了扩展和升级，ETH 仍落后于 BTC 和 Solana 等其他代币。

3. Upgrades' 'Unanticipated' Effects

3、升级“意外”效果

The Ethereum Merge and EIP-1559 have reduced ETH issuance, but the latest Dencun upgrade, while reducing the cost of writing data to the main chain, has indirectly reduced ETH's income sources, affecting the token's appreciation potential.

以太坊合并和EIP-1559减少了ETH的发行量，但最新的Dencun升级在降低向主链写入数据的成本的同时，也间接减少了ETH的收入来源，影响了代币的升值潜力。

4. Vitalik's ETH Sell-Off Sparks Debate

4. Vitalik 的 ETH 抛售引发争议

Recently, Ethereum founder Vitalik sold some ETH to support development. Despite the small amount sold, the market reacted negatively. Some investors believe this could indicate a lack of confidence from Vitalik in ETH, although he has stated that the price of ETH is not a priority for him.

最近，以太坊创始人 Vitalik 出售了一些 ETH 以支持开发。尽管销量不大，但市场反应消极。一些投资者认为，这可能表明 Vitalik 对 ETH 缺乏信心，尽管他表示 ETH 的价格不是他优先考虑的问题。

5. Absence from 'Rising Trends'

5. 缺席“上升趋势”

Many emerging trends in the current market, such as AI, RWA (real-world assets), and memecoins, have chosen platforms other than Ethereum. While Solana dominated the memecoin space, many new AI projects (like Fetch, TAO) and RWA projects have opted for more suitable independent networks and underlying architectures. Despite Ethereum opening the door to decentralization, other networks are leading the latest narratives.

当前市场上的许多新兴趋势，例如人工智能、RWA（现实世界资产）和模因币，都选择了以太坊以外的平台。虽然 Solana 主导了 memecoin 领域，但许多新的 AI 项目（如 Fetch、TAO）和 RWA 项目都选择了更合适的独立网络和底层架构。尽管以太坊打开了去中心化的大门，但其他网络正在引领最新的发展趋势。

6. ETH's Future Value Fate

6. ETH 的未来价值命运

Remaining a cornerstone of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, ETH currently accounts for over 55% of the total locked value. But with L2 scaling solutions, future Ethereum may face a dilemma like the $ATOM token in the Cosmos ecosystem, where the ecology thrives while the token value is not fully realized.

ETH 仍然是去中心化金融 (DeFi) 生态系统的基石，目前占总锁定价值的 55% 以上。但有了L2扩容解决方案，未来的以太坊可能会面临像Cosmos生态中的$ATOM代币一样的困境，生态蓬勃发展，但代币价值却没有完全实现。

My Personal Outlook

我的个人展望

I once believed strongly that ETH would reach $10,000, but I've become more skeptical. ETH still comprises 30% of my investment portfolio, but I may gradually sell off some assets during the next bull market, holding the rest to observe its long-term performance.

我曾经坚信 ETH 将达到 10,000 美元，但我变得更加怀疑。 ETH仍占我投资组合的30%，但我可能会在下一个牛市期间逐渐抛售部分资产，持有其余资产以观察其长期表现。

Conclusion

结论

ETH's network utility and ecological status remain strong, but recent performance has sparked market concerns. Despite ETH's industry leadership, its failure to align with emerging trends could gradually erode its dominance. While Ethereum maintains a first-mover advantage in the decentralized space,能否在L2发展和其它叙事浪潮中找到新平衡，将决定其核心价值能否持续。

ETH's network utility and ecological status remain strong, but recent performance has sparked market concerns. Despite ETH's industry leadership, its failure to align with emerging trends could gradually erode its dominance. While Ethereum maintains a first-mover advantage in the decentralized space,能否在L2发展和其它叙事浪潮中找到新平衡，将决定其核心价值能否持续。

#ETH #以太坊 $ETH $SOL $SUI

#ETH #以太坊 $ETH $SOL $SUI