以太坊2022年表現黯淡：Vitalik的ETH拋售、升級的意外影響以及「新興趨勢」的缺失引發擔憂

以太坊曾被視為加密市場的“藍籌資產”，外界普遍認為其價格未來將再創新高

Once regarded as the 'blue-chip asset' of the crypto market, Ethereum was widely expected to reach new heights, potentially even surpassing $10,000. But ETH's performance since 2022 has left many scratching their heads. Does this spell trouble for Vitalik and Ethereum's future? Let's unpack the reasons.

以太坊一度被視為加密市場的“藍籌資產”，人們普遍預計以太坊將達到新的高度，甚至有可能突破 10,000 美元。但 ETH 自 2022 年以來的表現卻讓許多人摸不著頭腦。這會給 Vitalik 和以太坊的未來帶來麻煩嗎？讓我們來分析一下原因。

1. Expectation vs. Reality Gap

1. 期望與現實的差距

Major upgrades to Ethereum over the past two years have fueled optimism about its future, especially regarding the 'deflationary' impact on ETH supply. But the actual market performance has been surprising. Despite scaling and upgrades, ETH has lagged behind BTC and other tokens like Solana.

過去兩年以太坊的重大升級激發了人們對其未來的樂觀情緒，尤其是對以太坊供應的「通貨緊縮」影響。但實際的市場表現卻讓人大跌眼鏡。儘管進行了擴展和升級，ETH 仍落後於 BTC 和 Solana 等其他代幣。

3. Upgrades' 'Unanticipated' Effects

3.升級“意外”效果

The Ethereum Merge and EIP-1559 have reduced ETH issuance, but the latest Dencun upgrade, while reducing the cost of writing data to the main chain, has indirectly reduced ETH's income sources, affecting the token's appreciation potential.

以太坊合併和EIP-1559減少了ETH的發行量，但最新的Dencun升級在降低向主鏈寫入資料的成本的同時，也間接減少了ETH的收入來源，影響了代幣的升值潛力。

4. Vitalik's ETH Sell-Off Sparks Debate

4. Vitalik 的 ETH 拋售引發爭議

Recently, Ethereum founder Vitalik sold some ETH to support development. Despite the small amount sold, the market reacted negatively. Some investors believe this could indicate a lack of confidence from Vitalik in ETH, although he has stated that the price of ETH is not a priority for him.

最近，以太坊創始人 Vitalik 出售了一些 ETH 以支持開發。儘管銷量不大，但市場反應消極。一些投資者認為，這可能表明 Vitalik 對 ETH 缺乏信心，儘管他表示 ETH 的價格不是他優先考慮的問題。

5. Absence from 'Rising Trends'

5. 缺席“上升趨勢”

Many emerging trends in the current market, such as AI, RWA (real-world assets), and memecoins, have chosen platforms other than Ethereum. While Solana dominated the memecoin space, many new AI projects (like Fetch, TAO) and RWA projects have opted for more suitable independent networks and underlying architectures. Despite Ethereum opening the door to decentralization, other networks are leading the latest narratives.

當前市場上的許多新興趨勢，例如人工智慧、RWA（現實世界資產）和迷因幣，都選擇了以太坊以外的平台。雖然 Solana 主導了 memecoin 領域，但許多新的 AI 專案（如 Fetch、TAO）和 RWA 專案都選擇了更合適的獨立網路和底層架構。儘管以太坊打開了去中心化的大門，但其他網路正在引領最新的發展趨勢。

6. ETH's Future Value Fate

6. ETH 的未來價值命運

Remaining a cornerstone of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, ETH currently accounts for over 55% of the total locked value. But with L2 scaling solutions, future Ethereum may face a dilemma like the $ATOM token in the Cosmos ecosystem, where the ecology thrives while the token value is not fully realized.

ETH 仍然是去中心化金融 (DeFi) 生態系統的基石，目前佔總鎖定價值的 55% 以上。但有了 L2 擴容解決方案，未來的以太坊可能會面臨像 Cosmos 生態中的 $ATOM 代幣那樣的困境，生態蓬勃發展，但代幣價值卻沒有完全實現。

My Personal Outlook

我的個人展望

I once believed strongly that ETH would reach $10,000, but I've become more skeptical. ETH still comprises 30% of my investment portfolio, but I may gradually sell off some assets during the next bull market, holding the rest to observe its long-term performance.

我曾經堅信 ETH 將達到 10,000 美元，但我變得更加懷疑。 ETH仍占我投資組合的30%，但我可能會在下一個牛市期間逐漸拋售部分資產，持有其餘資產以觀察其長期表現。

Conclusion

結論

ETH's network utility and ecological status remain strong, but recent performance has sparked market concerns. Despite ETH's industry leadership, its failure to align with emerging trends could gradually erode its dominance. While Ethereum maintains a first-mover advantage in the decentralized space,能否在L2发展和其它叙事浪潮中找到新平衡，将决定其核心价值能否持续。

ETH's network utility and ecological status remain strong、能否在L2發展和其它敘事浪潮中找到新平衡，將決定其核心價值能否持續。

#ETH #以太坊 $ETH $SOL $SUI

#ETH #以太坊$ETH $SOL $SUI