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以太坊 [ETH] 是按市值计算的第二大加密货币,自 2024 年 8 月以来一直面临着突破 2700 美元阻力位的艰苦战斗。
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has been struggling to break past the $2.7K resistance level since August. While Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has shown stronger performance lately, Ethereum remains stuck, down over 46% from its all-time high (ATH).
自 8 月份以来,以太坊(CRYPTO:ETH)一直在努力突破 2700 美元的阻力位。虽然比特币(CRYPTO:BTC)最近表现强劲,但以太坊仍然陷入困境,较其历史高点(ATH)下跌了 46% 以上。
So what’s holding Ethereum back, and could its upcoming upgrades bring the turnaround investors are hoping for?
那么是什么阻碍了以太坊的发展,其即将到来的升级能否带来投资者所希望的转变呢?
The Struggle at $2.7K Resistance
2700 美元阻力位的挣扎
Since early August, Ethereum has been largely trapped in a price range between $2.2K and $2.8K. The $2.8K price point has emerged as a strong resistance zone that Ethereum hasn’t been able to convincingly surpass, despite multiple attempts.
自 8 月初以来,以太坊很大程度上陷入了 2200 美元至 2800 美元的价格区间。 2800 美元的价格点已经成为一个强大的阻力区域,尽管以太坊多次尝试,但仍无法令人信服地超越它。
This price level is also significant because it coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical indicator that is often watched by traders.
该价格水平也很重要,因为它与 50% 斐波那契回撤位重合,这是交易者经常关注的关键技术指标。
While Bitcoin is now only 8% away from its ATH, Ethereum has a much steeper climb ahead. The altcoin is still far below its peak, and recent market trends haven’t been favorable for it to quickly make any major gains.
虽然比特币目前距离 ATH 仅差 8%,但以太坊的上涨幅度要大得多。山寨币仍远低于其峰值,最近的市场趋势并不利于它迅速取得重大收益。
The Role of Upcoming Upgrades
即将进行的升级的作用
One of the most frequently discussed factors that could help Ethereum recover in the future are its highly anticipated network upgrades.
最常讨论的有助于以太坊未来复苏的因素之一是其备受期待的网络升级。
Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, has laid out ambitious plans for the next phase of Ethereum’s development, which is known as “The Surge.” This upgrade focuses on increasing the network’s transaction speed (measured in transactions per second, or TPS) and improving interoperability between Layer 2 (L2) solutions, which are built to make Ethereum more scalable and efficient.
以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 为以太坊下一阶段的发展制定了雄心勃勃的计划,该计划被称为“浪潮”。此次升级的重点是提高网络的交易速度(以每秒交易量或 TPS 来衡量)并提高第 2 层 (L2) 解决方案之间的互操作性,这些解决方案旨在使以太坊更具可扩展性和效率。
These upgrades are expected to address several ongoing issues, including high transaction fees, slow transaction speeds, and network congestion. By improving these aspects, Ethereum could attract more users, increase its utility, and potentially drive demand for ETH, its native token.
这些升级预计将解决几个持续存在的问题,包括交易费用高、交易速度慢和网络拥塞。通过改进这些方面,以太坊可以吸引更多用户,提高其效用,并有可能推动对其原生代币 ETH 的需求。
However, the benefits of these upgrades won’t be seen overnight. The full rollout of “The Surge” and other improvements is still some time away. Until these changes are implemented and show their impact, Ethereum’s price could continue to struggle.
然而,这些升级的好处不会在一夜之间显现出来。 “The Surge”和其他改进的全面推出还需要一段时间。在这些变化得到实施并显示出其影响之前,以太坊的价格可能会继续挣扎。
Derivatives Market Offers Clues
衍生品市场提供线索
Looking at the derivatives market can offer some clues into why Ethereum’s price isn’t breaking out just yet. One important metric to watch is the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR).
观察衍生品市场可以提供一些线索,了解为什么以太坊的价格尚未突破。需要关注的一项重要指标是估计杠杆率(ELR)。
The ELR is calculated by dividing the total Open Interest (OI) by the amount of Ethereum held in exchange reserves. Essentially, it gives a sense of how much leverage traders are using in the market.
ELR 的计算方法是将未平仓合约总额 (OI) 除以外汇储备中持有的以太坊数量。从本质上讲,它可以让您了解交易者在市场上使用了多少杠杆。
According to data from Coinglass, Ethereum’s Open Interest has risen from $10 billion to $13 billion since August, signaling increased activity in the derivatives market. However, this rise in Open Interest has also led to a higher leverage ratio, which means more traders are taking on larger positions with borrowed money.
Coinglass 的数据显示,自 8 月份以来,以太坊的未平仓合约已从 100 亿美元增至 130 亿美元,表明衍生品市场活动有所增加。然而,未平仓量的增加也导致杠杆率更高,这意味着更多的交易者用借来的资金持有更大的头寸。
A high leverage ratio can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it shows that traders are betting big on future price movements, which could signal confidence in Ethereum’s potential. On the other hand, it also increases the risk of large liquidations if the price moves in the opposite direction, which could push prices down further.
高杠杆率可能是一把双刃剑。一方面,它表明交易者对未来的价格走势押注很大,这可能表明对以太坊潜力的信心。另一方面,如果价格朝相反方向变动,它也会增加大规模清算的风险,这可能会进一步压低价格。
Liquidation Risks and Price Action
清算风险和价格行为
The $2.7K-$2.8K region is not just a technical resistance zone—it’s also a critical area for liquidations. A liquidation occurs when a trader’s leveraged position is forcibly closed by the exchange to prevent further losses.
2700 美元至 2800 美元区域不仅是技术阻力区,也是清算的关键区域。当交易者的杠杆头寸被交易所强制平仓以防止进一步损失时,就会发生清算。
According to the liquidation heatmap, many traders have placed their positions around this price range, making it a high-risk area for a potential price drop.
根据清算热图,许多交易者已在该价格范围附近建仓,使其成为潜在价格下跌的高风险区域。
If Ethereum’s price fails to convincingly break above this resistance level, we could see a wave of liquidations that would push the price down even further. This adds to the current bearish sentiment surrounding Ethereum’s short-term price prospects.
如果以太坊的价格未能令人信服地突破该阻力位,我们可能会看到一波清算浪潮,从而进一步压低价格。这加剧了当前围绕以太坊短期价格前景的看跌情绪。
Lack of Demand and L2 Competition
需求不足和 L2 竞争
Another factor holding Ethereum back is the lack of organic demand on its main network. While Layer 2 solutions are growing in popularity and capturing more users, the main Ethereum network has seen slower adoption rates. This competition from L2 solutions, which offer lower fees and faster transactions, is another challenge for Ethereum to overcome.
阻碍以太坊发展的另一个因素是其主网络缺乏有机需求。虽然第 2 层解决方案越来越受欢迎并吸引了更多用户,但主要以太坊网络的采用率却较慢。来自 L2 解决方案的竞争是以太坊需要克服的另一个挑战,L2 解决方案提供更低的费用和更快的交易。
What Lies Ahead for Ethereum?
以太坊的未来是什么?
In the short term, Ethereum faces several hurdles—technical resistance, rising leverage, and lack of demand—that are keeping its price from rising above $2.7K. However, the future could look brighter once Ethereum’s network upgrades are fully implemented.
短期内,以太坊面临着几个障碍——技术阻力、杠杆上升和需求不足——这些阻碍了其价格上涨至 2700 美元以上。然而,一旦以太坊网络升级全面实施,未来可能会更加光明。
These improvements could make Ethereum more scalable and attractive for users, potentially driving up demand for ETH and pushing the price higher.
这些改进可以使以太坊更具可扩展性和对用户的吸引力,从而可能增加对 ETH 的需求并推高价格。
Until then, Ethereum investors should remain cautious. The market is volatile, and with the high leverage in play, price swings could be sharp. However, for those with a long-term view, the upcoming upgrades offer a reason for optimism.
在那之前,以太坊投资者应该保持谨慎。市场波动较大,加上高杠杆作用,价格波动可能会剧烈。然而,对于那些有长远眼光的人来说,即将到来的升级提供了乐观的理由。
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