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以太幣 [ETH] 是按市值計算的第二大加密貨幣,自 2024 年 8 月以來一直面臨著突破 2700 美元阻力位的艱苦戰鬥。
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has been struggling to break past the $2.7K resistance level since August. While Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has shown stronger performance lately, Ethereum remains stuck, down over 46% from its all-time high (ATH).
自 8 月以來,以太坊(CRYPTO:ETH)一直在努力突破 2700 美元的阻力位。雖然比特幣(CRYPTO:BTC)最近表現強勁,但以太坊仍陷入困境,較其歷史高點(ATH)下跌了 46% 以上。
So what’s holding Ethereum back, and could its upcoming upgrades bring the turnaround investors are hoping for?
那麼是什麼阻礙了以太坊的發展,其即將到來的升級能否帶來投資人所希望的轉變?
The Struggle at $2.7K Resistance
2700 美元阻力位的掙扎
Since early August, Ethereum has been largely trapped in a price range between $2.2K and $2.8K. The $2.8K price point has emerged as a strong resistance zone that Ethereum hasn’t been able to convincingly surpass, despite multiple attempts.
自 8 月初以來,以太坊很大程度上陷入了 2,200 美元至 2,800 美元的價格區間。 2800 美元的價格點已經成為一個強大的阻力區域,儘管以太坊多次嘗試,但仍無法令人信服地超越它。
This price level is also significant because it coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a key technical indicator that is often watched by traders.
這個價格水準也很重要,因為它與 50% 斐波那契回檔位重合,這是交易者經常關注的關鍵技術指標。
While Bitcoin is now only 8% away from its ATH, Ethereum has a much steeper climb ahead. The altcoin is still far below its peak, and recent market trends haven’t been favorable for it to quickly make any major gains.
雖然比特幣目前距離 ATH 僅差 8%,但以太坊的上漲幅度要大得多。山寨幣仍遠低於其峰值,最近的市場趨勢並不利於它迅速取得重大收益。
The Role of Upcoming Upgrades
即將進行的升級的作用
One of the most frequently discussed factors that could help Ethereum recover in the future are its highly anticipated network upgrades.
最常討論的有助於以太坊未來復甦的因素之一是其備受期待的網路升級。
Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, has laid out ambitious plans for the next phase of Ethereum’s development, which is known as “The Surge.” This upgrade focuses on increasing the network’s transaction speed (measured in transactions per second, or TPS) and improving interoperability between Layer 2 (L2) solutions, which are built to make Ethereum more scalable and efficient.
以太坊聯合創始人 Vitalik Buterin 為以太坊下一階段的發展制定了雄心勃勃的計劃,該計劃被稱為「浪潮」。升級的重點是提高網路的交易速度(以每秒交易量或TPS 來衡量)並提高第2 層(L2) 解決方案之間的互通性,這些解決方案旨在使以太坊更具可擴展性和效率。
These upgrades are expected to address several ongoing issues, including high transaction fees, slow transaction speeds, and network congestion. By improving these aspects, Ethereum could attract more users, increase its utility, and potentially drive demand for ETH, its native token.
這些升級預計將解決幾個持續存在的問題,包括交易費用高、交易速度慢和網路擁塞。透過改進這些方面,以太坊可以吸引更多用戶,提高其效用,並有可能推動對其原生代幣 ETH 的需求。
However, the benefits of these upgrades won’t be seen overnight. The full rollout of “The Surge” and other improvements is still some time away. Until these changes are implemented and show their impact, Ethereum’s price could continue to struggle.
然而,這些升級的好處不會在一夜之間顯現出來。 「The Surge」和其他改進的全面推出還需要一段時間。在這些變化得到實施並顯示出其影響之前,以太坊的價格可能會繼續掙扎。
Derivatives Market Offers Clues
衍生性商品市場提供線索
Looking at the derivatives market can offer some clues into why Ethereum’s price isn’t breaking out just yet. One important metric to watch is the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR).
觀察衍生性商品市場可以提供一些線索,了解為什麼以太幣的價格尚未突破。需要關注的一項重要指標是估計槓桿率(ELR)。
The ELR is calculated by dividing the total Open Interest (OI) by the amount of Ethereum held in exchange reserves. Essentially, it gives a sense of how much leverage traders are using in the market.
ELR 的計算方法是將未平倉合約總額 (OI) 除以外匯存底中持有的以太坊數量。從本質上講,它可以讓您了解交易者在市場上使用了多少槓桿。
According to data from Coinglass, Ethereum’s Open Interest has risen from $10 billion to $13 billion since August, signaling increased activity in the derivatives market. However, this rise in Open Interest has also led to a higher leverage ratio, which means more traders are taking on larger positions with borrowed money.
Coinglass 的數據顯示,自 8 月以來,以太坊的未平倉合約已從 100 億美元增至 130 億美元,顯示衍生性商品市場活動有所增加。然而,未平倉量的增加也導致槓桿率更高,這意味著更多的交易者用借來的資金持有更大的部位。
A high leverage ratio can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it shows that traders are betting big on future price movements, which could signal confidence in Ethereum’s potential. On the other hand, it also increases the risk of large liquidations if the price moves in the opposite direction, which could push prices down further.
高槓桿率可能是一把雙面刃。一方面,它表明交易者對未來的價格走勢押注很大,這可能表明對以太坊潛力的信心。另一方面,如果價格朝相反方向變動,它也會增加大規模清算的風險,這可能會進一步壓低價格。
Liquidation Risks and Price Action
清算風險和價格行為
The $2.7K-$2.8K region is not just a technical resistance zone—it’s also a critical area for liquidations. A liquidation occurs when a trader’s leveraged position is forcibly closed by the exchange to prevent further losses.
2700 美元至 2800 美元區域不僅是技術阻力區,也是清算的關鍵區域。當交易者的槓桿部位被交易所強制平倉以防止進一步損失時,就會發生清算。
According to the liquidation heatmap, many traders have placed their positions around this price range, making it a high-risk area for a potential price drop.
根據清算熱圖,許多交易者已在該價格範圍附近建倉,使其成為潛在價格下跌的高風險區域。
If Ethereum’s price fails to convincingly break above this resistance level, we could see a wave of liquidations that would push the price down even further. This adds to the current bearish sentiment surrounding Ethereum’s short-term price prospects.
如果以太坊的價格未能令人信服地突破該阻力位,我們可能會看到一波清算浪潮,從而進一步壓低價格。這加劇了當前圍繞以太坊短期價格前景的看跌情緒。
Lack of Demand and L2 Competition
需求不足和 L2 競爭
Another factor holding Ethereum back is the lack of organic demand on its main network. While Layer 2 solutions are growing in popularity and capturing more users, the main Ethereum network has seen slower adoption rates. This competition from L2 solutions, which offer lower fees and faster transactions, is another challenge for Ethereum to overcome.
阻礙以太坊發展的另一個因素是其主網路缺乏有機需求。雖然第 2 層解決方案越來越受歡迎並吸引了更多用戶,但主要以太坊網路的採用率卻較慢。來自 L2 解決方案的競爭是以太坊需要克服的另一個挑戰,L2 解決方案提供更低的成本和更快的交易。
What Lies Ahead for Ethereum?
以太坊的未來是什麼?
In the short term, Ethereum faces several hurdles—technical resistance, rising leverage, and lack of demand—that are keeping its price from rising above $2.7K. However, the future could look brighter once Ethereum’s network upgrades are fully implemented.
短期內,以太坊面臨著幾個障礙——技術阻力、槓桿上升和需求不足——這些阻礙了其價格上漲至 2700 美元以上。然而,一旦以太坊網路升級全面實施,未來可能會更加光明。
These improvements could make Ethereum more scalable and attractive for users, potentially driving up demand for ETH and pushing the price higher.
這些改進可以使以太坊更具可擴展性和對用戶的吸引力,這可能會增加對 ETH 的需求並推高價格。
Until then, Ethereum investors should remain cautious. The market is volatile, and with the high leverage in play, price swings could be sharp. However, for those with a long-term view, the upcoming upgrades offer a reason for optimism.
在那之前,以太坊投資者應該保持謹慎。市場波動較大,加上高槓桿作用,價格波動可能會劇烈。然而,對於那些有長遠眼光的人來說,即將到來的升級提供了樂觀的理由。
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