以太坊（ETH）与比特币（BTC）：发挥的宏观经济因素

美联储的最新决定对加密货币市场产生了重大影响。

The market is wondering if Ethereum will be able to regain some ground lost against Bitcoin. Technical signals are emerging that could favor ETH.

市场想知道以太坊是否能够恢复对比特币的损失。技术信号正在出现，可能有利于ETH。

The pair ETH/BTC is a crucial indicator for evaluating the relative strength of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. Currently, ETH has reached the lowest level in the last five years against BTC. However, some signals suggest a possible trend change.

这对ETH/BTC是评估比特币相比评估以太坊相对强度的关键指标。目前，ETH在过去五年中对BTC的水平达到了最低水平。但是，一些信号表明可能发生趋势变化。

Volume indicators signal an exhaustion of selling pressure, which could translate into a price increase for Ethereum in the coming days. The key question is: will ETH manage to surpass BTC in a potential market recovery?

体积指标表示销售压力的耗尽，这可能会转化为以太坊在未来几天的价格上涨。关键问题是：ETH在潜在的市场回收中是否会超越BTC？

Macroeconomic factors favor a move in crypto, but on one condition

宏观经济因素有利于加密的举动，但在一种情况下

宏观经济因素有利于加密的举动，但在一种情况下

Recent decisions by the Federal Reserve have had a huge impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, the same level set in December.

美联储的最新决定对加密货币市场产生了巨大影响。在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的最新会议上，美国央行将利率保持在4.25％至4.5％之间，这是12月相同的水平。

Despite this stability, the markets have reacted with a strong rise. Many analysts believe that this is due to speculation that the Fed might implement not one, but two interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

尽管这种稳定性，市场仍会反应强劲上升。许多分析师认为，这是由于猜测美联储可能不是实施一个，而是在年底之前降低两次利率。

The hypothesis of a more accommodative monetary policy has fueled a wave of buying in risky assets, leading Bitcoin and Ethereum to recover key resistance levels.

更宽松的货币政策的假设助长了风险资产的购买浪潮，领先比特币和以太坊以恢复关键阻力水平。

Furthermore, the daily MACD of the ETH/BTC pair has turned into bull territory, supported by an increase in trading volume over the past two weeks. This suggests that a capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum might already be starting.

此外，ETH/BTC对的每日MACD变成了牛头领土，在过去两周中交易量的增加支持。这表明从比特币到以太坊的资本轮换可能已经开始。

However, the picture is not yet entirely clear. Without confirmation from the Fed through an actual execution of the expected monetary policy, the market remains subject to strong volatility.

但是，图片尚不完全清楚。如果没有通过实际执行预期的货币政策来确认美联储的确认，市场仍然存在强烈的波动。

Strong signals emerge on Ethereum, but Bitcoin remains dominant

在以太坊上出现了强烈的信号，但比特币仍然占主导地位

在以太坊上出现了强烈的信号，但比特币仍然占主导地位

Fundamental factors also play an essential role in determining the leadership between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Recent on-chain movements provide important indications.

基本因素在确定以太坊和比特币之间的领导方面也起着至关重要的作用。最近的链上运动提供了重要的迹象。

Data on the blockchain shows how the fondo World Liberty Financial, associated with Donald Trump, has resumed accumulating Ethereum. The company moved 25 million USDC into a new multi-sig wallet and purchased 4,468 ETH, worth 10 million dollars, at the price of 2,238 dollars per unit.

关于区块链的数据显示，与唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）相关的Fondo World Liberty Financial如何恢复积累以太坊。该公司将2500万美元的价格转移到了一个新的多人钱包中，并以每单位2,238美元的价格购买了4,468 ETH，价值1000万美元。

In parallel, retail demand has increased above 2,059 dollars, causing the largest outflow of Ethereum from exchanges in the last two weeks. In total, 139,000 ETH have been withdrawn from trading platforms.

同时，零售需求增加了2,059美元以上，在过去两周中导致以太坊的最大流出。总共有139,000 ETH已从交易平台撤回。

These movements suggest that numerous investors consider Ethereum close to a market low, incentivizing new purchases.

这些运动表明，许多投资者认为以太坊靠近市场低点，激励新购买。

However, despite these positive signals for Ethereum, Bitcoin continues to maintain a dominant position. The exchange-traded funds (ETF) on BTC have recorded four consecutive days of net inflows. This consolidation suggests that many market operators consider Bitcoin an interesting entry point in the long term.

然而，尽管以太坊的积极信号，比特币仍继续保持主导地位。 BTC上的交易所交易基金（ETF）连续四天记录了净流入的四天。这种合并表明，从长远来看，许多市场运营商认为比特币是一个有趣的切入点。

For Ethereum to gain ground against Bitcoin, it will need to overcome a critical resistance in the ETH/BTC pair. Currently, the level to monitor is 0.025 BTC per ETH. Only a decisive breakthrough of this threshold, accompanied by a sustained inflow of capital, could confirm a broader recovery.

为了使以太坊抗比特币，它将需要克服ETH/BTC对的关键阻力。当前，要监视的水平为每ETH 0.025 BTC。只有该门槛的决定性突破，并伴随着持续的资本流入，才能证实更广泛的恢复。

Will Ethereum really manage to overtake?

以太坊真的会超越吗？

以太坊真的会超越吗？

At the moment, Bitcoin manages to maintain a solid base thanks to strong holding by investors and inflows into BTC ETFs.

目前，由于投资者的强大持有并流入了BTC ETF，比特币设法保持了坚实的基础。

Nevertheless, Ethereum shows signs of strengthening, with increasing institutional and retail demand.

尽管如此，以太坊显示出加强的迹象，随着机构和零售需求的增加。

To determine if Ethereum will actually manage to surpass Bitcoin, it will be essential to monitor:

为了确定以太坊是否真的会超越比特币，必须进行监视：

* The ability of ETH to stay above the key threshold of 2,500 dollars.

* ETH保持超过2500美元的关键门槛的能力。

* A potential breakout of the ETH/BTC parity above 0.025 BTC.

* ETH/BTC均等元素的潜在突破高于0.025 BTC。

* The evolution of the Federal Reserve’s policies and the impact on market sentiment.

*美联储政策的发展以及对市场情绪的影响。

Investors will remain attentive, waiting for confirmations on these factors before declaring a real leadership shift between BTC and ETH.

投资者将保持专注，等待对这些因素的确认，然后才宣布BTC和ETH之间的真正领导能力转变。