Ethereum (ETH) vs Bitcoin (BTC): the macroeconomic factors at play

The recent decisions of the Federal Reserve have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

The market is wondering if Ethereum will be able to regain some ground lost against Bitcoin. Technical signals are emerging that could favor ETH.

The pair ETH/BTC is a crucial indicator for evaluating the relative strength of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. Currently, ETH has reached the lowest level in the last five years against BTC. However, some signals suggest a possible trend change.

Volume indicators signal an exhaustion of selling pressure, which could translate into a price increase for Ethereum in the coming days. The key question is: will ETH manage to surpass BTC in a potential market recovery?

Macroeconomic factors favor a move in crypto, but on one condition

Recent decisions by the Federal Reserve have had a huge impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, the same level set in December.

Despite this stability, the markets have reacted with a strong rise. Many analysts believe that this is due to speculation that the Fed might implement not one, but two interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

The hypothesis of a more accommodative monetary policy has fueled a wave of buying in risky assets, leading Bitcoin and Ethereum to recover key resistance levels.

Furthermore, the daily MACD of the ETH/BTC pair has turned into bull territory, supported by an increase in trading volume over the past two weeks. This suggests that a capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum might already be starting.

However, the picture is not yet entirely clear. Without confirmation from the Fed through an actual execution of the expected monetary policy, the market remains subject to strong volatility.

Strong signals emerge on Ethereum, but Bitcoin remains dominant

Fundamental factors also play an essential role in determining the leadership between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Recent on-chain movements provide important indications.

Data on the blockchain shows how the fondo World Liberty Financial, associated with Donald Trump, has resumed accumulating Ethereum. The company moved 25 million USDC into a new multi-sig wallet and purchased 4,468 ETH, worth 10 million dollars, at the price of 2,238 dollars per unit.

In parallel, retail demand has increased above 2,059 dollars, causing the largest outflow of Ethereum from exchanges in the last two weeks. In total, 139,000 ETH have been withdrawn from trading platforms.

These movements suggest that numerous investors consider Ethereum close to a market low, incentivizing new purchases.

However, despite these positive signals for Ethereum, Bitcoin continues to maintain a dominant position. The exchange-traded funds (ETF) on BTC have recorded four consecutive days of net inflows. This consolidation suggests that many market operators consider Bitcoin an interesting entry point in the long term.

For Ethereum to gain ground against Bitcoin, it will need to overcome a critical resistance in the ETH/BTC pair. Currently, the level to monitor is 0.025 BTC per ETH. Only a decisive breakthrough of this threshold, accompanied by a sustained inflow of capital, could confirm a broader recovery.

Will Ethereum really manage to overtake?

At the moment, Bitcoin manages to maintain a solid base thanks to strong holding by investors and inflows into BTC ETFs.

Nevertheless, Ethereum shows signs of strengthening, with increasing institutional and retail demand.

To determine if Ethereum will actually manage to surpass Bitcoin, it will be essential to monitor:

* The ability of ETH to stay above the key threshold of 2,500 dollars.

* A potential breakout of the ETH/BTC parity above 0.025 BTC.

* The evolution of the Federal Reserve’s policies and the impact on market sentiment.

Investors will remain attentive, waiting for confirmations on these factors before declaring a real leadership shift between BTC and ETH.