以太坊（ETH）與比特幣（BTC）：發揮的宏觀經濟因素

美聯儲的最新決定對加密貨幣市場產生了重大影響。

The market is wondering if Ethereum will be able to regain some ground lost against Bitcoin. Technical signals are emerging that could favor ETH.

市場想知道以太坊是否能夠恢復對比特幣的損失。技術信號正在出現，可能有利於ETH。

The pair ETH/BTC is a crucial indicator for evaluating the relative strength of Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. Currently, ETH has reached the lowest level in the last five years against BTC. However, some signals suggest a possible trend change.

這對ETH/BTC是評估比特幣相比評估以太坊相對強度的關鍵指標。目前，ETH在過去五年中對BTC的水平達到了最低水平。但是，一些信號表明可能發生趨勢變化。

Volume indicators signal an exhaustion of selling pressure, which could translate into a price increase for Ethereum in the coming days. The key question is: will ETH manage to surpass BTC in a potential market recovery?

體積指標表示銷售壓力的耗盡，這可能會轉化為以太坊在未來幾天的價格上漲。關鍵問題是：ETH在潛在的市場回收中是否會超越BTC？

Macroeconomic factors favor a move in crypto, but on one condition

宏觀經濟因素有利於加密的舉動，但在一種情況下

宏觀經濟因素有利於加密的舉動，但在一種情況下

Recent decisions by the Federal Reserve have had a huge impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%, the same level set in December.

美聯儲的最新決定對加密貨幣市場產生了巨大影響。在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的最新會議上，美國央行將利率保持在4.25％至4.5％之間，這是12月相同的水平。

Despite this stability, the markets have reacted with a strong rise. Many analysts believe that this is due to speculation that the Fed might implement not one, but two interest rate cuts by the end of the year.

儘管這種穩定性，市場仍會反應強勁上升。許多分析師認為，這是由於猜測美聯儲可能不是實施一個，而是在年底之前降低兩次利率。

The hypothesis of a more accommodative monetary policy has fueled a wave of buying in risky assets, leading Bitcoin and Ethereum to recover key resistance levels.

更寬鬆的貨幣政策的假設助長了風險資產的購買浪潮，領先比特幣和以太坊以恢復關鍵阻力水平。

Furthermore, the daily MACD of the ETH/BTC pair has turned into bull territory, supported by an increase in trading volume over the past two weeks. This suggests that a capital rotation from Bitcoin to Ethereum might already be starting.

此外，ETH/BTC對的每日MACD變成了牛頭領土，在過去兩周中交易量的增加支持。這表明從比特幣到以太坊的資本輪換可能已經開始。

However, the picture is not yet entirely clear. Without confirmation from the Fed through an actual execution of the expected monetary policy, the market remains subject to strong volatility.

但是，圖片尚不完全清楚。如果沒有通過實際執行預期的貨幣政策來確認美聯儲的確認，市場仍然存在強烈的波動。

Strong signals emerge on Ethereum, but Bitcoin remains dominant

在以太坊上出現了強烈的信號，但比特幣仍然占主導地位

在以太坊上出現了強烈的信號，但比特幣仍然占主導地位

Fundamental factors also play an essential role in determining the leadership between Ethereum and Bitcoin. Recent on-chain movements provide important indications.

基本因素在確定以太坊和比特幣之間的領導方面也起著至關重要的作用。最近的鏈上運動提供了重要的跡象。

Data on the blockchain shows how the fondo World Liberty Financial, associated with Donald Trump, has resumed accumulating Ethereum. The company moved 25 million USDC into a new multi-sig wallet and purchased 4,468 ETH, worth 10 million dollars, at the price of 2,238 dollars per unit.

關於區塊鏈的數據顯示，與唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）相關的Fondo World Liberty Financial如何恢復積累以太坊。該公司將2500萬美元的價格轉移到了一個新的多人錢包中，並以每單位2,238美元的價格購買了4,468 ETH，價值1000萬美元。

In parallel, retail demand has increased above 2,059 dollars, causing the largest outflow of Ethereum from exchanges in the last two weeks. In total, 139,000 ETH have been withdrawn from trading platforms.

同時，零售需求增加了2,059美元以上，在過去兩周中導致以太坊的最大流出。總共有139,000 ETH已從交易平台撤回。

These movements suggest that numerous investors consider Ethereum close to a market low, incentivizing new purchases.

這些運動表明，許多投資者認為以太坊靠近市場低點，激勵新購買。

However, despite these positive signals for Ethereum, Bitcoin continues to maintain a dominant position. The exchange-traded funds (ETF) on BTC have recorded four consecutive days of net inflows. This consolidation suggests that many market operators consider Bitcoin an interesting entry point in the long term.

然而，儘管以太坊的積極信號，比特幣仍繼續保持主導地位。 BTC上的交易所交易基金（ETF）連續四天記錄了淨流入的四天。這種合併表明，從長遠來看，許多市場運營商認為比特幣是一個有趣的切入點。

For Ethereum to gain ground against Bitcoin, it will need to overcome a critical resistance in the ETH/BTC pair. Currently, the level to monitor is 0.025 BTC per ETH. Only a decisive breakthrough of this threshold, accompanied by a sustained inflow of capital, could confirm a broader recovery.

為了使以太坊抗比特幣，它將需要克服ETH/BTC對的關鍵阻力。當前，要監視的水平為每ETH 0.025 BTC。只有該門檻的決定性突破，並伴隨著持續的資本流入，才能證實更廣泛的恢復。

Will Ethereum really manage to overtake?

以太坊真的會超越嗎？

以太坊真的會超越嗎？

At the moment, Bitcoin manages to maintain a solid base thanks to strong holding by investors and inflows into BTC ETFs.

目前，由於投資者的強大持有並流入了BTC ETF，比特幣設法保持了堅實的基礎。

Nevertheless, Ethereum shows signs of strengthening, with increasing institutional and retail demand.

儘管如此，以太坊顯示出加強的跡象，隨著機構和零售需求的增加。

To determine if Ethereum will actually manage to surpass Bitcoin, it will be essential to monitor:

為了確定以太坊是否真的會超越比特幣，必須進行監視：

* The ability of ETH to stay above the key threshold of 2,500 dollars.

* ETH保持超過2500美元的關鍵門檻的能力。

* A potential breakout of the ETH/BTC parity above 0.025 BTC.

* ETH/BTC均等元素的潛在突破高於0.025 BTC。

* The evolution of the Federal Reserve’s policies and the impact on market sentiment.

*美聯儲政策的發展以及對市場情緒的影響。

Investors will remain attentive, waiting for confirmations on these factors before declaring a real leadership shift between BTC and ETH.

投資者將保持專注，等待對這些因素的確認，然後才宣布BTC和ETH之間的真正領導能力轉變。