以太坊经历了漫长而复杂的旅程，看来它终于达到了周期的关键点

毕竟，Altcoin领导人已被添加到唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最新的加密货币清单中，该清单将构成美国即将到来的战略储备，这是许多分析师认为这一发展可能会对其价格绩效产生的长期影响。

Ethereum has had a long and complex journey, and it seems that it is finally reaching a critical point in its cycle. To fully understand Ethereum’s current trajectory, it is essential to analyze its performance in the context of historical cycles, monetary policy, and Bitcoin valuation.

以太坊经历了漫长而复杂的旅程，似乎它终于达到了周期的关键点。要充分了解以太坊目前的轨迹，必须在历史周期，货币政策和比特币估值的背景下分析其绩效。

After all, the altcoin leader has been added to Donald Trump’s updated list of cryptocurrencies that will form the upcoming strategic reserve in the United States—a development which many analysts believe could have a long-term effect on its price performance.

毕竟，Altcoin领导人已被添加到唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最新的加密货币清单中，该清单将构成美国即将到来的战略储备，这是许多分析师认为这一发展可能会对其价格绩效产生的长期影响。

In a recent video on the second largest cryptocurrency, well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen gives an in-depth look at Ethereum’s path, exploring its past behavior, its relationship with Bitcoin, and the broader macroeconomic influences shaping its future.

在最近关于第二大加密货币的视频中，著名的加密分析师本杰明·科恩（Benjamin Cowen）深入探讨了以太坊的道路，探索了其过去的行为，与比特币的关系以及更广泛的宏观经济影响，从而塑造了其未来。

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Many investors focus on Ethereum’s USD valuation, but the ETH/BTC ratio ultimately dictates whether Ethereum is a good investment at any given moment. Historically, Ethereum does not become a strong investment in USD terms until its Bitcoin valuation has bottomed. This means that even if Ethereum appears to be an attractive buy at $1,000, its value relative to Bitcoin may still be in a declining phase, making it a less optimal investment compared to Bitcoin itself.

许多投资者专注于以太坊的美元估值，但是ETH/BTC比率最终决定以太坊在任何给定时刻是否是一项不错的投资。从历史上看，直到其比特币估值触底之前，以太坊才成为美元的大力投资。这意味着，即使以太坊似乎是1,000美元的有吸引力的买入，其相对于比特币的价值仍处于下降阶段，而与比特币本身相比，它的投资不那么最佳。

A major factor influencing Ethereum’s performance is Bitcoin dominance. Those who view the market through the lens of Bitcoin dominance recognize that Ethereum’s gains are often dependent on Bitcoin’s movements. If Ethereum is holding a key support level in USD terms, it does not necessarily mean it is performing well—if ETH/BTC is bleeding, it signifies a weaker position relative to Bitcoin.

影响以太坊性能的主要因素是比特币优势。那些通过比特币优势视角看待市场的人认识到，以太坊的收益通常取决于比特币的运动。如果以太坊以USD术语保持关键支持水平，则不一定意味着它的性能很好 - 如果ETH/BTC出血，则表示相对于比特币，其位置较弱。

For years, Ethereum’s USD valuation remained supported while its Bitcoin valuation declined. This situation often misled investors into thinking Ethereum was strong when, in reality, it was simply benefiting from Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. The opportunity cost of holding Ethereum instead of Bitcoin became evident, as Bitcoin outperformed Ethereum for extended periods.

多年来，以太坊的美元估值一直得到支持，而比特币估值下降。这种情况经常误导投资者认为以太坊的强大，而实际上它只是从比特币的上升轨迹中受益。持有以太坊而不是比特币的机会成本变得显而易见，因为比特币在长时间内优于以太坊。

Cowen explains that Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation behaves like an oscillator—it goes through cycles of strength and weakness. The ETH/BTC ratio is currently near historical lows, suggesting a potential bottom. However, there remains the possibility that Ethereum could continue to bleed. While some investors worry that Ethereum may never recover, historical data suggests that these oscillations are natural and expected.

Cowen解释说，以太坊的比特币估值与振荡器一样，它经历了力量和劣势的周期。 ETH/BTC比率目前靠近历史低点，表明潜在的底部。但是，以太坊仍然有可能继续流血。尽管一些投资者担心以太坊可能永远不会恢复，但历史数据表明这些振荡是自然而预期的。

The reason for Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation decline can largely be attributed to monetary policy—specifically, quantitative tightening. When the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, liquidity is drained from the markets, which disproportionately impacts altcoins like Ethereum. This trend was observed in the previous cycle and has repeated itself in the current cycle.

以太坊比特币估值下降的原因很大程度上归因于货币政策，特别是定量收紧。当美联储收紧货币政策时，流动性就会从市场上排出，这对以太坊等山雀产生了不成比例的影响。在上一个周期中观察到了这一趋势，并在当前周期中重复了自己。

Examining past cycles, Ethereum has exhibited similar patterns during periods of quantitative tightening. In the previous cycle, Ethereum formed a wedge pattern during QT, putting in higher lows. Initially, Ethereum fell through this wedge, leading to a sharp decline, but eventually, it rebounded once QT ended.

在检查过去的周期时，以太坊在定量收紧时期表现出相似的模式。在上一个周期中，以太坊在QT期间形成了楔形图案，使其较高低点。最初，以太坊从这个楔子中掉下来，导致急剧下降，但最终，一旦QT结束，它就会反弹。

Currently, Ethereum is following an almost identical pattern. The structure remains the same, but the timeline has been extended. When QT ended in the past, Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation found a bottom and subsequently rallied. If the same pattern holds, Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation could bottom out once QT ends in this cycle as well.

目前，以太坊正在遵循几乎相同的模式。结构保持不变，但时间表已延长。当QT在过去结束时，以太坊的比特币估值发现了底部，随后集会。如果相同的模式成立，一旦QT在此周期中结束，以太坊的比特币估值也可能降低。

Predicting the exact timing of the end of QT is challenging. The Federal Reserve may conclude QT in March, June, or later, but historical data suggests that Ethereum will likely bottom around the same time QT ends.

预测QT末尾的确切时机是具有挑战性的。美联储可能会在3月，6月或更晚的QT结束，但历史数据表明，以太坊可能会在同一时间左右结束时最低点。

If Ethereum continues to drop in the short term, investors should watch for signs that the Federal Reserve is ending QT. If QT ends, Ethereum’s Bitcoin valuation is likely to bottom. However, it is important to note that while ETH/BTC may find a bottom, this does not necessarily mean Ethereum’s USD valuation will immediately recover.

如果以太坊在短期内继续下降，投资者应注意美联储正在结束QT的迹象。如果QT结束，以太坊的比特币估值可能会降低。但是，重要的是要注意，尽管ETH/BTC可能会找到底部，但这并不一定意味着以太坊的美元估值将立即恢复。

Ethereum’s USD performance will remain dependent on Bitcoin’s movements. If Bitcoin rises, Ethereum can rise as well. However, if Bitcoin falls, Ethereum’s USD valuation may continue to decline despite ETH/BTC bottoming out.

以太坊的美元业绩将取决于比特币的动作。如果比特币上升，以太坊也可以上升。但是，如果比特币下降，尽管ETH/BTC触底了，以太坊的美元估值可能会继续下降。

The current market cycle has seen an increase in speculative investments, particularly in meme coins and projects with little fundamental value. This has led to retail investors experiencing significant losses, similar to past cycles. The misallocation of capital is a recurring theme in crypto cycles, with many projects failing due to unsustainable models.

当前的市场周期已经增加了投机性投资，尤其是在模因硬币和基本价值几乎没有的项目中。这导致散户投资者遭受了巨大的损失，类似于过去的周期。资本的分配是加密周期中反复出现的主题，由于模型不可持续的模型，许多项目失败了。

This dynamic has contributed to Ethereum’s struggle, as liquidity has been funneled into less sustainable projects rather than solid investments like Ethereum. However, as the market matures and speculative projects fade, capital may rotate back into Ethereum and other established assets.

这种动态促成了以太坊的斗争，因为流动性已被漏掉到较低的可持续性项目中，而不是像以太坊这样的可靠投资。但是，随着市场的成熟和投机项目的逐渐消失，资本可能会转回以太坊和其他已建立的资产。

Historically, when Ethereum has fallen back into its regression band, it has exhibited a consistent pattern. Initially, it wicks down, followed by an attempt to hold before ultimately moving deeper into the regression band. This is what Cowen refers to as “home”. This pattern has played out in multiple cycles, including 2016 and

从历史上看，当以太坊落入其回归频段时，它表现出一致的模式。最初，它陷入困境，然后试图在最终深入回归乐队之前进行试图进行。这就是Cowen所说的“家”。这种模式在包括2016年和