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该机构对下级法院允许该公司提供哪个政党将控制国会两院的预测市场的决定提出上诉。加密货币公司正在关注此案。
A federal appeals court heard arguments Thursday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and prediction-betting platform Kalshi over the company's efforts to launch political prediction markets in the U.S.
联邦上诉法院周四听取了美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 和预测博彩平台 Kalshi 关于该公司在美国推出政治预测市场的努力的论点
The judges did not indicate whether they would allow Kalshi to offer the products while reviewing a lower court's ruling on the matter.
法官没有表明在审查下级法院对此事的裁决时是否允许卡尔希提供这些产品。
CFTC General Counsel Rob Schwartz and Jones Day Partner Yaakov Roth, representing Kalshi, took turns explaining why an appeals court should or should not block Kalshi from listing these events contracts.
CFTC 总法律顾问 Rob Schwartz 和代表 Kalshi 的众达合伙人 Yaakov Roth 轮流解释了为什么上诉法院应该或不应该阻止 Kalshi 列出这些活动合同。
The hearing came days after a federal judge ruled that the CFTC could not block Kalshi from listing political prediction markets, allowing the company to list contracts predicting how control of the House and Senate might play out.
听证会举行几天前,一名联邦法官裁定 CFTC 不能阻止 Kalshi 列出政治预测市场,允许该公司列出预测众议院和参议院控制权可能如何发挥作用的合同。
But the ruling lasted only a few hours, as the CFTC quickly filed for an emergency stay, which the appeals court granted on a temporary basis.
但该裁决只持续了几个小时,因为商品期货交易委员会迅速申请紧急中止,上诉法院临时批准了这一请求。
During the 2.5-hour hearing, the judges did not seem especially impressed by either party, saying various arguments or explanations did not make sense and drilling into specific terms of the Commodity Exchange Act and what they mean. The judges did not get to asking what an event contract actually is until more than two hours into the hearing.
在2.5小时的听证会上,法官们似乎对任何一方都没有留下特别深刻的印象,称各种论点或解释没有意义,并深入探讨了《商品交易法》的具体条款及其含义。直到听证会两个多小时后,法官们才开始询问活动合同到底是什么。
Schwartz called D.C. District Court Judge Jia Cobb's Sept. 12 ruling "seriously flawed," and said it could allow Kalshi – and other companies – to immediately launch "high-stakes" betting markets.
施瓦茨称华盛顿地区法院法官贾·科布 9 月 12 日的裁决“存在严重缺陷”,并表示该裁决可能允许 Kalshi 和其他公司立即启动“高风险”博彩市场。
"If that happens, the harm to the public is going to be profound at a time, and I don't mean to be dramatic, but Americans broadly believe that our democracy is under threat," Schwartz said.
施瓦茨说:“如果这种情况发生,对公众的伤害将是深远的,我的意思并不是戏剧性的,但美国人普遍认为我们的民主正受到威胁。”
"In order to obtain a stay, the commission has to show two things: merit, and that there will be some harm, irreparable harm, absent the stay, and they can't make either of those," Roth said in his opening statement.
罗斯在开场陈词中说:“为了获得中止,委员会必须证明两件事:一是优点,二是如果没有中止,将会造成一些伤害,无法弥补的伤害,而他们不能做到这两点。” 。
Kalshi saw $50,000 deposited in its two political events contracts in the eight hours or so that the products were live before the CFTC filed for an emergency stay, Roth said.
罗斯表示,在 CFTC 申请紧急中止之前,Kalshi 在其两份政治事件合约中存入了 5 万美元,在产品上线前的八个小时左右的时间里。
The CFTC's arguments revolve around the agency's stated inability to police the underlying events – namely, U.S. elections.
美国商品期货交易委员会的论点围绕着该机构所声称的无能力监管潜在事件(即美国选举)展开。
Market participants could distort markets to suggest one candidate is doing better than another, Schwartz said, and it would be more difficult to correct than other markets.
施瓦茨表示,市场参与者可能会扭曲市场,暗示一位候选人比另一位候选人做得更好,而且这比其他市场更难纠正。
A judge posed the hypothetical question of whether a counterparty might take the other side of a bet made for manipulative purposes: "Somebody will take the other side and eat their lunch. Is that what's supposed to happen?"
一位法官提出了一个假设问题,即交易对手是否可能会接受出于操纵目的而进行的赌注的另一方:“有人会接受另一方并吃午餐。这是应该发生的事情吗?”
That is what should happen, but political prediction markets may be susceptible to manipulation that cannot be easily corrected, Schwartz said.
施瓦茨表示,这是应该发生的事情,但政治预测市场可能容易受到无法轻易纠正的操纵。
"It's because the sources of information that they absorb and reflect are opaque and unreliable. I am talking about polls with undisclosed methodologies, so, bad methodologies, fake polls, pollsters with agendas, inaccurate news, fake news, on and on," he said. "Normal futures contracts have an objective indicator that is reliable, kind of a published index report."
“这是因为他们吸收和反映的信息来源是不透明和不可靠的。我说的是采用未公开方法的民意调查,所以,糟糕的方法、虚假民意调查、有议程的民意调查、不准确的新闻、假新闻等等,”他说。 “普通期货合约有一个可靠的客观指标,类似于已发布的指数报告。”
If these markets are manipulated, that would both harm the market participants and could even undermine election integrity, Schwartz said. Later in the hearing, he drew a distinction between political event contracts and other types of bets that could be placed.
施瓦茨表示,如果这些市场受到操纵,就会损害市场参与者,甚至可能破坏选举的公正性。在听证会后期,他区分了政治事件合同和其他可以下注的类型。
"There's really very little monkeying around you can do with an earthquake," Schwartz said, responding to one example.
施瓦茨在回应一个例子时说:“对于地震,你真的没什么可做的。”
Roth, speaking on Kalshi's behalf, pushed back, saying the more robust a market is, the less susceptible it would be to that type of manipulation.
代表卡尔希发言的罗斯反驳说,市场越强劲,就越不容易受到这种类型的操纵。
He pointed to the $1 billion already bet on Polymarket, which does not offer services in the U.S. after a settlement with the CFTC, saying the regulator's argument essentially suggests having an overseas vendor provide these products may be better than Kalshi doing so.
他指出,Polymarket 已投入 10 亿美元,与 CFTC 达成和解后,该公司不再在美国提供服务。他表示,监管机构的论点实质上表明,让海外供应商提供这些产品可能比 Kalshi 更好。
"The most important thing I want to make is that the way to reduce that risk is to allow Kalshi markets to offer because right now, this activity is happening and being reported to voters based on markets that are not regulated, that are open to foreign traders, that have no surveillance. … There's no transparency," he said. "We don't know who's buying, who's selling cryptocurrency. If this was happening on Kalshi's markets, we would have this whole suite of regulatory provisions that apply."
“我想做的最重要的事情是,降低风险的方法是允许卡尔什市场提供报价,因为目前这种活动正在发生,并根据不受监管、对外国开放的市场向选民报告。交易员没有监控……没有透明度,”他说。 “我们不知道谁在购买、谁在出售加密货币。如果这种情况发生在 Kalshi 的市场上,我们将有一整套适用的监管规定。”
The CFTC needed to show there was a risk of "irreparable harm" in allowing Kalshi to continue listing and trading its events contracts. Todd Phillips, an assistant professor of law at the Georgia State University Robinson College of Business, told CoinDesk it was "unclear if [the CFTC] did that" over the course of the hearing.
CFTC 需要证明允许 Kalshi 继续上市和交易其活动合约存在“无法弥补的损害”的风险。佐治亚州立大学罗宾逊商学院法学助理教授托德·菲利普斯 (Todd Phillips) 告诉 CoinDesk,在听证会期间“尚不清楚 [CFTC] 是否这样做了”。
The regulator could have done a better job explaining what event contracts actually are and how a state prohibiting gambling
监管机构本可以更好地解释活动合同的实际含义以及国家如何禁止赌博
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