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該機構對下級法院允許該公司提供哪個政黨將控制國會兩院的預測市場的決定提出上訴。加密貨幣公司正在關注此案。
A federal appeals court heard arguments Thursday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and prediction-betting platform Kalshi over the company's efforts to launch political prediction markets in the U.S.
聯邦上訴法院週四聽取了美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 和預測博彩平台 Kalshi 關於該公司在美國推出政治預測市場的努力的論點
The judges did not indicate whether they would allow Kalshi to offer the products while reviewing a lower court's ruling on the matter.
法官沒有表明在審查下級法院對此事的裁決時是否允許卡爾希提供這些產品。
CFTC General Counsel Rob Schwartz and Jones Day Partner Yaakov Roth, representing Kalshi, took turns explaining why an appeals court should or should not block Kalshi from listing these events contracts.
CFTC 總法律顧問 Rob Schwartz 和代表 Kalshi 的眾達合夥人 Yaakov Roth 輪流解釋了為什麼上訴法院應該或不應該阻止 Kalshi 列出這些活動合約。
The hearing came days after a federal judge ruled that the CFTC could not block Kalshi from listing political prediction markets, allowing the company to list contracts predicting how control of the House and Senate might play out.
聽證會舉行幾天前,一名聯邦法官裁定 CFTC 不能阻止 Kalshi 列出政治預測市場,允許該公司列出預測眾議院和參議院控制權可能如何發揮作用的合約。
But the ruling lasted only a few hours, as the CFTC quickly filed for an emergency stay, which the appeals court granted on a temporary basis.
但該裁決只持續了幾個小時,因為商品期貨交易委員會迅速申請緊急中止,上訴法院暫時批准了這項請求。
During the 2.5-hour hearing, the judges did not seem especially impressed by either party, saying various arguments or explanations did not make sense and drilling into specific terms of the Commodity Exchange Act and what they mean. The judges did not get to asking what an event contract actually is until more than two hours into the hearing.
在2.5小時的聽證會上,法官們似乎對任何一方都沒有留下特別深刻的印象,稱各種論點或解釋沒有意義,並深入探討了《商品交易法》的具體條款及其含義。直到聽證會兩個多小時後,法官才開始詢問活動合約到底是什麼。
Schwartz called D.C. District Court Judge Jia Cobb's Sept. 12 ruling "seriously flawed," and said it could allow Kalshi – and other companies – to immediately launch "high-stakes" betting markets.
施瓦茨稱華盛頓地區法院法官賈·科布 9 月 12 日的裁決“存在嚴重缺陷”,並表示該裁決可能允許 Kalshi 和其他公司立即啟動“高風險”博彩市場。
"If that happens, the harm to the public is going to be profound at a time, and I don't mean to be dramatic, but Americans broadly believe that our democracy is under threat," Schwartz said.
施瓦茨說:“如果這種情況發生,對公眾的傷害將是深遠的,我的意思並不是戲劇性的,但美國人普遍認為我們的民主正受到威脅。”
"In order to obtain a stay, the commission has to show two things: merit, and that there will be some harm, irreparable harm, absent the stay, and they can't make either of those," Roth said in his opening statement.
羅斯在開場陳詞中說:「為了獲得中止,委員會必須證明兩件事:一是優點,二是如果沒有中止,將會造成一些傷害,無法彌補的傷害,而他們不能做到這兩點。 ” 。
Kalshi saw $50,000 deposited in its two political events contracts in the eight hours or so that the products were live before the CFTC filed for an emergency stay, Roth said.
羅斯表示,在 CFTC 申請緊急中止之前,Kalshi 在其兩份政治事件合約中存入了 5 萬美元,在產品上線前的八個小時左右的時間裡。
The CFTC's arguments revolve around the agency's stated inability to police the underlying events – namely, U.S. elections.
美國商品期貨交易委員會的論點圍繞著該機構所聲稱的無力監管潛在事件(即美國選舉)。
Market participants could distort markets to suggest one candidate is doing better than another, Schwartz said, and it would be more difficult to correct than other markets.
施瓦茨表示,市場參與者可能會扭曲市場,暗示一位候選人比另一位候選人做得更好,而且這比其他市場更難糾正。
A judge posed the hypothetical question of whether a counterparty might take the other side of a bet made for manipulative purposes: "Somebody will take the other side and eat their lunch. Is that what's supposed to happen?"
一位法官提出了一個假設問題,即交易對手是否可能會接受出於操縱目的而進行的賭注的另一方:“有人會接受另一方並吃午餐。這是應該發生的事情嗎?”
That is what should happen, but political prediction markets may be susceptible to manipulation that cannot be easily corrected, Schwartz said.
施瓦茨表示,這是應該發生的事情,但政治預測市場可能容易受到無法輕易糾正的操縱。
"It's because the sources of information that they absorb and reflect are opaque and unreliable. I am talking about polls with undisclosed methodologies, so, bad methodologies, fake polls, pollsters with agendas, inaccurate news, fake news, on and on," he said. "Normal futures contracts have an objective indicator that is reliable, kind of a published index report."
「這是因為他們吸收和反映的資訊來源是不透明和不可靠的。我說的是採用未公開方法的民意調查,所以,糟糕的方法、虛假民意調查、有議程的民意調查、不準確的新聞、假新聞等等,」他說。 “普通期貨合約有一個可靠的客觀指標,類似於已發布的指數報告。”
If these markets are manipulated, that would both harm the market participants and could even undermine election integrity, Schwartz said. Later in the hearing, he drew a distinction between political event contracts and other types of bets that could be placed.
施瓦茲表示,如果這些市場受到操縱,就會損害市場參與者,甚至可能破壞選舉的公正性。在聽證會後期,他區分了政治事件合約和其他類型的賭注。
"There's really very little monkeying around you can do with an earthquake," Schwartz said, responding to one example.
施瓦茨在回應一個例子時說:“對於地震,你真的沒什麼可做的。”
Roth, speaking on Kalshi's behalf, pushed back, saying the more robust a market is, the less susceptible it would be to that type of manipulation.
代表卡爾希發言的羅斯反駁說,市場越強勁,就越不容易受到這種類型的操縱。
He pointed to the $1 billion already bet on Polymarket, which does not offer services in the U.S. after a settlement with the CFTC, saying the regulator's argument essentially suggests having an overseas vendor provide these products may be better than Kalshi doing so.
他指出,Polymarket 已投入 10 億美元,與 CFTC 達成和解後,該公司不再在美國提供服務。
"The most important thing I want to make is that the way to reduce that risk is to allow Kalshi markets to offer because right now, this activity is happening and being reported to voters based on markets that are not regulated, that are open to foreign traders, that have no surveillance. … There's no transparency," he said. "We don't know who's buying, who's selling cryptocurrency. If this was happening on Kalshi's markets, we would have this whole suite of regulatory provisions that apply."
「我想做的最重要的事情是,降低風險的方法是允許卡爾什市場提供報價,因為目前這種活動正在發生,並根據不受監管、對外國開放的市場向選民報告。交易員沒有監控……沒有透明度,」他說。 “我們不知道誰在購買、誰在出售加密貨幣。如果這種情況發生在 Kalshi 的市場上,我們將有一整套適用的監管規定。”
The CFTC needed to show there was a risk of "irreparable harm" in allowing Kalshi to continue listing and trading its events contracts. Todd Phillips, an assistant professor of law at the Georgia State University Robinson College of Business, told CoinDesk it was "unclear if [the CFTC] did that" over the course of the hearing.
CFTC 需要證明允許 Kalshi 繼續上市和交易其活動合約存在「無法彌補的損害」的風險。喬治亞州立大學羅賓遜商學院法學助理教授 Todd Phillips 告訴 CoinDesk,在聽證會期間「尚不清楚 [CFTC] 是否這樣做了」。
The regulator could have done a better job explaining what event contracts actually are and how a state prohibiting gambling
監管機構本可以更好地解釋活動合約的實際含義以及國家如何禁止賭博
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