美国经济在挑战中展现韧性

The resilience of the US economy stands out, particularly in the recent performance of the stock market and the broader economic landscape. According to JPMorgan Asset Management's latest quarterly market guide, the first quarter saw US stocks hitting record highs, fueling optimism among investors and analysts alike.

美国经济的韧性尤为突出，尤其是近期股市表现和更广泛的经济格局。根据摩根资产管理公司最新的季度市场指南，第一季度美国股市创下历史新高，激发了投资者和分析师的乐观情绪。

Some even speculate that the S&P 500 could surpass the 6,000 milestone by the end of the year, a testament to the economy's robustness in the face of adversity.

一些人甚至猜测，标准普尔 500 指数可能会在今年年底突破 6,000 点这一里程碑，这证明了经济在逆境中的稳健性。

A Surge in Immigration: The Unseen Economic Pillar

One of the most significant, yet underappreciated, factors contributing to this resilience is the role of immigration.

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Contrary to the pervasive narrative that views immigration through a lens of challenges and controversies, JPMorgan's analysis sheds light on its economic benefits. "We are seeing an immigration surge, which in many ways, of course, is chaotic, and people talk about it as one of our greatest problems," noted David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.

与从挑战和争议的角度看待移民的普遍说法相反，摩根大通的分析揭示了其经济效益。摩根大通资产管理公司首席全球策略师戴维·凯利表示：“我们看到移民激增，这在很多方面当然是混乱的，人们将其视为我们最大的问题之一。”

However, he highlights a "silver lining" where this influx has bolstered the economic outlook. The data speaks volumes: over 545,000 individuals gained lawful permanent resident status in just the first half of 2023, a figure that doesn't even account for the undocumented immigrants contributing to the economy.

不过，他强调了“一线希望”，即人口涌入提振了经济前景。数据说明了一切：仅 2023 年上半年就有超过 545,000 人获得合法永久居民身份，这一数字甚至没有考虑到对经济做出贡献的无证移民。

This demographic shift has not only filled numerous low-wage jobs, thereby sustaining job growth, but has also applied downward pressure on wage inflation. This nuanced view of immigration's role underscores a critical aspect of the US economy's ability to navigate through inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes.

这种人口结构的变化不仅填补了许多低工资职位，从而维持了就业增长，而且还对工资通胀施加了下行压力。这种对移民作用的细致入微的看法凸显了美国经济应对通胀压力和加息能力的一个关键方面。

The Workforce's Unwavering Contribution

Another cornerstone of economic resilience is the robust participation of working-age Americans in the job market. Despite the disruptions caused by the pandemic, labor force participation has rebounded, reaching levels not seen in decades.

劳动力坚定不移的贡献 经济韧性的另一个基石是处于工作年龄的美国人对就业市场的积极参与。尽管大流行造成了破坏，劳动力参与率仍出现反弹，达到几十年来未见的水平。

This trend belies the notion that Americans are disengaged from the workforce, instead highlighting a vibrant labor market teeming with opportunity.

这一趋势掩盖了美国人脱离劳动力市场的观念，而是凸显了充满活力的充满机会的劳动力市场。

Kelly's insights into the labor market defy the conventional wisdom that expected a recession amidst such economic upheaval.

摩根大通©盖蒂图片社/克里斯·洪德罗斯·凯利对劳动力市场的见解违背了在这种经济动荡中预计会出现衰退的传统观点。

Instead, the blend of high labor participation and the strategic contributions of immigrants paints a picture of an economy that's not only surviving but thriving. The unexpected strength of the labor market, coupled with low wage growth in a tight labor market, suggests a complex interplay of factors at work, challenging economists and strategists to rethink their forecasts and models.

相反，高劳动力参与度和移民的战略贡献相结合，描绘了一幅不仅生存而且繁荣的经济图景。劳动力市场出乎意料的强劲，加上紧张的劳动力市场中的低工资增长，表明工作因素之间存在着复杂的相互作用，迫使经济学家和策略师重新思考他们的预测和模型。

The Economic Puzzle: Low Wage Growth in a Tight Market

One of the most perplexing aspects of the current economic landscape is the juxtaposition of low wage growth against the backdrop of a tight labor market. With unemployment rates at historic lows and job availability high, conventional wisdom would suggest wages should be on the rise.

经济难题：市场紧张中的低工资增长 当前经济形势中最令人困惑的方面之一是低工资增长与紧张的劳动力市场的背景并存。由于失业率处于历史低位且就业机会很高，传统观点认为工资应该上涨。

Yet, as the JPMorgan report points out, wage growth remains modest, sitting at just 4.5% in February—barely above the inflation rate and not significantly higher than the 50-year average. This dynamic is particularly surprising given the largest surge in price growth since the 1980s.

然而，正如摩根大通报告指出的那样，工资增长仍然温和，2 月份仅为 4.5%，仅略高于通货膨胀率，也没有显着高于 50 年平均水平。考虑到自 20 世纪 80 年代以来最大幅度的价格增长，这种动态尤其令人惊讶。

David Kelly, the chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, offers an insightful perspective on this anomaly. The influx of immigrants, many accepting lower-wage positions, has contributed to this unexpected wage stagnation.

摩根大通资产管理公司首席全球策略师戴维·凯利（David Kelly）对这一异常现象提出了富有洞察力的观点。移民的涌入，其中许多人接受了较低工资的职位，导致了这种意想不到的工资停滞。

Despite a robust demand for labor, the supply side, bolstered by new entrants to the workforce, seems to be keeping wage pressures in check. This scenario, while beneficial in curbing inflation, raises questions about the long-term sustainability of wage growth and its impact on overall economic health.

尽管劳动力需求强劲，但在新加入劳动力的支撑下，供给侧似乎正在控制工资压力。这种情况虽然有利于抑制通胀，但也引发了人们对工资增长的长期可持续性及其对整体经济健康影响的质疑。

Consumer Debt and Spending

Another area that often sparks concern among economists and the public alike is the level of consumer debt. At first glance, record-high credit card balances might suggest that American consumers are over-leveraging themselves.

消费者债务和支出另一个经常引发经济学家和公众担忧的领域是消费者债务水平。乍一看，创纪录的信用卡余额可能表明美国消费者过度杠杆化。

However, a deeper dive into the data reveals a more nuanced picture. JPMorgan's analysis highlights that most consumer debt is actually tied up in mortgages, the majority of which are fixed-rate and therefore unaffected by rising interest rates.

然而，更深入地研究数据揭示了更微妙的情况。摩根大通的分析强调，大多数消费者债务实际上与抵押贷款挂钩，其中大部分是固定利率，因此不受利率上升的影响。

This observation is crucial for understanding the consumer debt landscape. While credit card debt has indeed risen, it represents a relatively small fraction of total household liabilities. Moreover, the average US household is allocating only about 10% of its disposable income to debt repayment, a figure significantly lower than the peak seen just before the financial crisis.

这一观察结果对于了解消费者债务状况至关重要。虽然信用卡债务确实有所增加，但它仅占家庭总负债的一小部分。此外，美国家庭平均仅将可支配收入的约10%用于偿还债务，这一数字大大低于金融危机前的峰值。

This suggests that, on the whole, American consumers are managing their debt levels prudently, contrary to the narrative of impending financial doom due to over-indebtedness.

这表明，总体而言，美国消费者正在谨慎管理自己的债务水平，这与过度负债导致金融厄运即将来临的说法相反。

The Role of Excess Savings

The persistence of consumer spending, despite inflationary pressures and rising debt levels, can be partly explained by the phenomenon of excess savings.

超额储蓄的作用 尽管通胀压力和债务水平不断上升，消费者支出的持续存在可以部分地用超额储蓄现象来解释。

During the pandemic, government stimulus packages resulted in a significant accumulation of savings among American households. JPMorgan estimates that approximately $800 billion in stimulus money remains unspent, providing a cushion that supports continued consumer expenditure.

疫情期间，政府刺激计划导致美国家庭储蓄大量积累。摩根大通估计，约有 8000 亿美元的刺激资金尚未支出，为支持持续的消费者支出提供了缓冲。

This reservoir of excess savings acts as a buffer, enabling households to maintain their spending habits even as economic conditions fluctuate. While the personal savings rate has dipped to lower levels, the existence of this financial cushion suggests that consumer spending could remain resilient in the near term.

Assets Versus Liabilities

To fully appreciate the financial health of American households, one must consider not only their liabilities but also their assets. JPMorgan's findings reveal a striking imbalance: US households collectively hold assets totaling $176.7 trillion, nearly nine times their total liabilities.

资产与负债 为了充分了解美国家庭的财务健康状况，我们不仅必须考虑其负债，还必须考虑其资产。摩根大通的调查结果揭示了一种惊人的不平衡：美国家庭总共持有的资产总额达 176.7 万亿美元，几乎是其总负债的九倍。

This disparity underscores a critical point—despite the apparent rise in consumer debt, the overall financial position of American households is fundamentally strong. The significant assets held by households, ranging from home equity to financial investments and pensions, dwarf the liabilities represented by mortgages, student loans, and credit card debt.

这种差异凸显了一个关键点——尽管消费者债务明显上升，但美国家庭的整体财务状况从根本上来说是强劲的。家庭持有的大量资产（从房屋净值到金融投资和养老金）使抵押贷款、学生贷款和信用卡债务等负债相形见绌。

This financial robustness provides a solid foundation for consumer confidence and spending, mitigating concerns about a debt-fueled economic bubble on the verge of bursting.

这种金融稳健性为消费者信心和支出奠定了坚实的基础，减轻了人们对债务推动的经济泡沫濒临破裂的担忧。

Reflecting on Economic Insights

The intricate dance between various economic indicators—immigration, labor market participation, wage growth, consumer debt, and household assets—reveals a picture of an economy that defies simple categorization.

反思经济洞察各种经济指标（移民、劳动力市场参与度、工资增长、消费者债务和家庭资产）之间错综复杂的舞蹈，揭示了一幅难以简单分类的经济图景。

Similarly, the examination of consumer debt and spending patterns in light of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic challenges the alarmist narratives surrounding rising credit card debt. It highlights the importance of context in assessing economic health and consumer behavior.

同样，根据大流行期间积累的过剩储蓄对消费者债务和支出模式进行的审查挑战了围绕信用卡债务上升的危言耸听的说法。它强调了背景在评估经济健康和消费者行为方面的重要性。

The distinction between liabilities and assets further contributes to a more balanced and comprehensive view of household financial stability, suggesting a resilience that may buffer against potential economic downturns.

负债和资产之间的区别进一步有助于对家庭财务稳定性产生更加平衡和全面的看法，表明家庭财务稳定性可能会缓冲潜在的经济衰退。