唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税继续损害了全球市场，现在，摩根大通（JPMorgan）等专家预计将在今年发生美国衰退

考虑到它如何影响加密市场，尽管没有某些人可能期望的方式，但这种发展是重要的。

Donald Trump’s tariffs on almost all countries have continued to wreak havoc on the global markets. Now, experts such as JPMorgan are predicting that a US recession will happen this year.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）对几乎所有国家的关税都对全球市场造成了破坏。现在，摩根大通等专家预测，美国衰退将在今年发生。

This development is significant considering how it could impact the crypto market, although not in the way some might expect.

考虑到它如何影响加密市场，尽管没有某些人可能期望的方式，但这种发展是重要的。

Donald Trump’s Tariffs Raise Odds Of US Recession This Year

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税增加了今年的美国衰退

In a CNBC interview, JPMorgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, stated that they have raised the odds of a US recession to 60% following Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement earlier this week.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）的首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）在一次CNBC采访中说，在本周早些时候唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税公告之后，他们将美国衰退的几率提高到60％。

This prediction is triple the 20% probability that they had estimated at the beginning of the year.

该预测是他们在年初估计的20％概率的三倍。

Moreover, Deutsche Bank has also raised the probability of a recession to 50%, while Goldman Sachs has increased the odds from 20% to 35%.

此外，德意志银行还将经济衰退的可能性提高到50％，而高盛的赔率已从20％增加到35％。

Meanwhile, prior to Trump’s announcement, Goldman Sachs had raised the odds of a recession from 20% to 35%.

同时，在特朗普宣布这一消息之前，高盛将经济衰退的几率从20％提高到35％。

Market commentator The Kobeissi Latter stated that a recession is impossible to avoid if these tariffs persist.

市场评论员后者表示，如果这些关税持续下去，就无法避免经济衰退。

Traders are also betting on a downturn this year. On the prediction platform Kalshi, odds for that to happen have surged to 61%.

贸易商还押注今年的经济低迷。在预测平台卡尔西（Kalshi）上，发生这种情况的赔率已飙升至61％。

A US recession is significant considering the impact it could have on global markets. The stock market has already entered bear market territory following Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on almost all countries on April 2.

考虑到它可能对全球市场产生影响，美国衰退很大。唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）于4月2日宣布几乎所有国家的关税，股市已经进入了熊市领土。

As such, a recession would only cause the stock market and other markets to plunge harder.

因此，经济衰退只会导致股票市场和其他市场更加严重。

However, amid this downtrend in the global markets, the crypto market, led by Bitcoin, has shown some impressive strength.

但是，在全球市场的下降趋势中，由比特币领导的加密市场表现出了一些令人印象深刻的实力。

A CoinGape market analysis noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks. The flagship crypto is down only 5.51% while the S&P 500 has crashed 12% over three days.

一项小丑市场分析指出，比特币已与股票解耦。旗舰加密仅下降了5.51％，而标准普尔500指数在三天内坠毁了12％。

A plausible explanation is that market investors see BTC as a flight to safety amid the market downturn, which is undoubtedly bullish for the crypto market, especially if a US recession occurs.

一个合理的解释是，市场投资者将BTC视为在市场下滑的情况下飞往安全的航班，这无疑是对加密货币市场的看涨，尤其是在美国衰退发生的情况下。

It is worth mentioning that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had also previously praised Bitcoin as an “uncorrelated asset” that provides a hedge against market turmoil.

值得一提的是，贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）以前还称赞比特币是一种“不相关的资产”，可对冲市场动荡。

A Recession Might Be Bullish For The Crypto Market

经济衰退可能对加密货币市场看涨

Amid talk of a US recession following Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement, Dom Kwok, an expert and co-founder of EasyA, has affirmed that recessions are bullish for crypto prices.

在谈论唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税宣布之后的美国衰退时，Easya的专家兼联合创始人Dom Kwok肯定了衰退对加密价格的看涨。

He explained that the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates during recessions to spur the economy. This immediately leads to quantitative easing (QE), which is bullish for the crypto market, and more liquidity flows into the market during this period.

他解释说，美国美联储在衰退期间降低了利率，以刺激经济。这立即导致定量宽松（QE），这是对加密货币市场的看涨，并且在此期间流入更多的流动性。

Dom added that all this would lead to crypto and risk asset prices rising. He also alluded to how the Bitcoin price surged during the 2020 COVID recession.

Dom补充说，这一切将导致加密货币和风险资产价格上涨。他还暗示了比特币价格在2020年的衰退期间的飙升。

As such, the crypto market is likely to soar again if a recession occurs. Analyst Kevin Capital also echoed a similar sentiment following China’s response to Donald Trump’s tariffs.

因此，如果发生衰退，加密市场可能会再次飙升。分析师凯文资本（Kevin Capital）也回应了中国对唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税的回应。

The analyst stated that the crypto market was more focused on the Fed’s monetary policies rather than tariffs. This indicates that a market boom would happen even in the face of a recession, since the US Central Bank would likely step in to help stimulate the economy.

分析师表示，加密货币市场更专注于美联储的货币政策，而不是关税。这表明即使面对经济衰退，市场繁荣也会发生，因为美国中央银行可能会介入以帮助刺激经济。