唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅繼續損害了全球市場，現在，摩根大通（JPMorgan）等專家預計將在今年發生美國衰退

考慮到它如何影響加密市場，儘管沒有某些人可能期望的方式，但這種發展是重要的。

Donald Trump’s tariffs on almost all countries have continued to wreak havoc on the global markets. Now, experts such as JPMorgan are predicting that a US recession will happen this year.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）對幾乎所有國家的關稅都對全球市場造成了破壞。現在，摩根大通等專家預測，美國衰退將在今年發生。

This development is significant considering how it could impact the crypto market, although not in the way some might expect.

考慮到它如何影響加密市場，儘管沒有某些人可能期望的方式，但這種發展是重要的。

Donald Trump’s Tariffs Raise Odds Of US Recession This Year

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅增加了今年的美國衰退

In a CNBC interview, JPMorgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, stated that they have raised the odds of a US recession to 60% following Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement earlier this week.

摩根大通（JPMorgan）的首席經濟學家布魯斯·卡斯曼（Bruce Kasman）在一次CNBC採訪中說，在本週早些時候唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅公告之後，他們將美國衰退的機率提高到60％。

This prediction is triple the 20% probability that they had estimated at the beginning of the year.

該預測是他們在年初估計的20％概率的三倍。

Moreover, Deutsche Bank has also raised the probability of a recession to 50%, while Goldman Sachs has increased the odds from 20% to 35%.

此外，德意志銀行還將經濟衰退的可能性提高到50％，而高盛的賠率已從20％增加到35％。

Meanwhile, prior to Trump’s announcement, Goldman Sachs had raised the odds of a recession from 20% to 35%.

同時，在特朗普宣布這一消息之前，高盛將經濟衰退的機率從20％提高到35％。

Market commentator The Kobeissi Latter stated that a recession is impossible to avoid if these tariffs persist.

市場評論員後者表示，如果這些關稅持續下去，就無法避免經濟衰退。

Traders are also betting on a downturn this year. On the prediction platform Kalshi, odds for that to happen have surged to 61%.

貿易商還押註今年的經濟低迷。在預測平台卡爾西（Kalshi）上，發生這種情況的賠率已飆升至61％。

A US recession is significant considering the impact it could have on global markets. The stock market has already entered bear market territory following Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on almost all countries on April 2.

考慮到它可能對全球市場產生影響，美國衰退很大。唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）於4月2日宣布幾乎所有國家的關稅，股市已經進入了熊市領土。

As such, a recession would only cause the stock market and other markets to plunge harder.

因此，經濟衰退只會導致股票市場和其他市場更加嚴重。

However, amid this downtrend in the global markets, the crypto market, led by Bitcoin, has shown some impressive strength.

但是，在全球市場的下降趨勢中，由比特幣領導的加密市場表現出了一些令人印象深刻的實力。

A CoinGape market analysis noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks. The flagship crypto is down only 5.51% while the S&P 500 has crashed 12% over three days.

一項小丑市場分析指出，比特幣已與股票解耦。旗艦加密僅下降了5.51％，而標準普爾500指數在三天內墜毀了12％。

A plausible explanation is that market investors see BTC as a flight to safety amid the market downturn, which is undoubtedly bullish for the crypto market, especially if a US recession occurs.

一個合理的解釋是，市場投資者將BTC視為在市場下滑的情況下飛往安全的航班，這無疑是對加密貨幣市場的看漲，尤其是在美國衰退發生的情況下。

It is worth mentioning that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had also previously praised Bitcoin as an “uncorrelated asset” that provides a hedge against market turmoil.

值得一提的是，貝萊德首席執行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）以前還稱讚比特幣是一種“不相關的資產”，可對沖市場動盪。

A Recession Might Be Bullish For The Crypto Market

經濟衰退可能對加密貨幣市場看漲

Amid talk of a US recession following Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement, Dom Kwok, an expert and co-founder of EasyA, has affirmed that recessions are bullish for crypto prices.

在談論唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅宣布之後的美國衰退時，Easya的專家兼聯合創始人Dom Kwok肯定了衰退對加密價格的看漲。

He explained that the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates during recessions to spur the economy. This immediately leads to quantitative easing (QE), which is bullish for the crypto market, and more liquidity flows into the market during this period.

他解釋說，美國美聯儲在衰退期間降低了利率，以刺激經濟。這立即導致定量寬鬆（QE），這是對加密貨幣市場的看漲，並且在此期間流入更多的流動性。

Dom added that all this would lead to crypto and risk asset prices rising. He also alluded to how the Bitcoin price surged during the 2020 COVID recession.

Dom補充說，這一切將導致加密貨幣和風險資產價格上漲。他還暗示了比特幣價格在2020年的衰退期間的飆升。

As such, the crypto market is likely to soar again if a recession occurs. Analyst Kevin Capital also echoed a similar sentiment following China’s response to Donald Trump’s tariffs.

因此，如果發生衰退，加密市場可能會再次飆升。分析師凱文資本（Kevin Capital）也回應了中國對唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅的回應。

The analyst stated that the crypto market was more focused on the Fed’s monetary policies rather than tariffs. This indicates that a market boom would happen even in the face of a recession, since the US Central Bank would likely step in to help stimulate the economy.

分析師表示，加密貨幣市場更專注於美聯儲的貨幣政策，而不是關稅。這表明即使面對經濟衰退，市場繁榮也會發生，因為美國中央銀行可能會介入以幫助刺激經濟。