狗狗币即将进入 2025 年，但你应该逢低买入吗？

自 2021 年以来，埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 一直是狗狗币的大力支持者，当时他经常在社交媒体上甚至在当年 5 月的《周六夜现场》(SNL) 节目中宣传狗狗币。他甚至称其为他最喜欢的加密货币。

The cryptocurrency market is having a banner year. The combined value of all coins and tokens recently hit an all-time high of $3.8 trillion, which is more than quadruple the bear-market low of $823 billion in 2022.

加密货币市场迎来了辉煌的一年。所有硬币和代币的总价值最近创下了 3.8 万亿美元的历史新高，是 2022 年熊市低点 8230 亿美元的四倍多。

But those gains have come with significant volatility, especially in the more speculative corners of the crypto space. Meme token Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE), for example, had an incredible year-to-date return of 414% until last Wednesday, but it has since plunged by 31%.

但这些收益伴随着巨大的波动，尤其是在加密货币领域投机性更强的领域。例如，Meme 代币狗狗币（CRYPTO：DOGE）截至上周三为止，年初至今的回报率令人难以置信，达到 414％，但此后已暴跌 31％。

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Dogecoin is heading into 2025 with the wind at its back, thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment and continued support from the world's richest person, Elon Musk. So should investors use this recent dip as an opportunity to buy?

得益于更有利的监管环境和世界首富埃隆·马斯克的持续支持，狗狗币将乘风破浪地进入 2025 年。那么投资者是否应该利用最近的下跌作为买入机会？

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

External forces triggered volatility in Dogecoin

外部力量引发狗狗币波动

Elon Musk has been a big supporter of Dogecoin since 2021, when he regularly promoted it on social media and even during his appearance on Saturday Night Live (SNL) in May of that year. He even called it his favorite cryptocurrency.

自 2021 年以来，埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 一直是狗狗币的大力支持者，当时他经常在社交媒体上甚至在当年 5 月的《周六夜现场》(SNL) 节目中宣传狗狗币。他甚至称其为他最喜欢的加密货币。

Dogecoin was trading at $0.0046 per token at the beginning of 2021, and within five months, it soared by 15,769% to a record high of $0.73. Musk's support was a big contributor to that move, but his SNL appearance happened to mark the peak. Investors realized he didn't have a concrete plan to back up his vocal support for Dogecoin, so it wound up losing 92% of its value by mid-2022.

2021 年初，狗狗币的交易价格为每枚 0.0046 美元，五个月内飙升 15,769%，达到 0.73 美元的历史新高。马斯克的支持是这一举措的重要贡献者，但他在《周六夜现场》的亮相恰好标志着巅峰。投资者意识到他没有具体的计划来支持他对狗狗币的公开支持，因此到 2022 年中期，狗狗币的价值最终缩水了 92%。

After remaining mostly dormant in 2023 and for most of 2024, Trump's election win on Nov. 5 was the spark Dogecoin needed to stage a recovery. It appears he will be a very pro-crypto president, and he recently nominated pro-crypto businessman Paul Atkins to run the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), pending Senate approval.

在 2023 年和 2024 年的大部分时间里都处于休眠状态之后，特朗普在 11 月 5 日的选举胜利成为狗狗币复苏所需的火花。看来他将是一位非常支持加密货币的总统，他最近提名支持加密货币的商人保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）担任证券交易委员会（SEC）的负责人，正在等待参议院批准。

That means the crypto industry could face lighter regulation over the next four years, paving the way for new use cases, which might be the key to creating value. However, Dogecoin enthusiasts received another surprise when Trump nominated Musk to head an agency called the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE for short. The acronym is a reference to his favorite cryptocurrency, which sent investors into a frenzy.

这意味着加密行业可能在未来四年面临更宽松的监管，为新的用例铺平道路，这可能是创造价值的关键。然而，当特朗普提名马斯克领导一个名为政府效率部（简称 DOGE）的机构时，狗狗币爱好者又收到了另一个惊喜。这个缩写词是指他最喜欢的加密货币，这让投资者陷入了疯狂。

Dogecoin soared to a 52-week high of $0.47 earlier this month, and it was charging toward its 2021 record of $0.73. But it has since plummeted 31% since last Wednesday, because the U.S. Federal Reserve issued a new forecast pointing to fewer interest rate cuts next year. Interest rates don't affect Dogecoin directly, but a higher cost of money tends to weigh on the more speculative areas of the financial markets. It's easier to profit from borrowed funds when interest rates are low, after all.

本月早些时候，狗狗币飙升至 0.47 美元的 52 周高点，并正在向 2021 年的记录 0.73 美元冲刺。但自上周三以来，该指数已暴跌 31%，因为美联储发布了新的预测，指出明年降息幅度较小。利率不会直接影响狗狗币，但较高的资金成本往往会给金融市场的投机性较高的领域带来压力。毕竟，当利率较低时，更容易从借入资金中获利。

Dogecoin still lacks real fundamentals

狗狗币仍然缺乏真正的基本面

Dogecoin doesn't have many real use cases. According to Cryptwerk, just 2,412 merchants are willing to accept it as payment worldwide, and many of them are obscure internet businesses, crypto service providers, and even online gambling houses. If consumers can't spend their Dogecoin tokens at their favorite stores, they have no reason to own them except in the hope they will increase in value.

狗狗币没有很多实际用例。据 Cryptwerk 称，全球只有 2,412 家商家愿意接受这种支付方式，其中许多是默默无闻的互联网企业、加密货币服务提供商，甚至是在线赌场。如果消费者不能在他们最喜欢的商店消费他们的狗狗币代币，他们就没有理由拥有它们，除非希望它们能增值。

In other words, Dogecoin perfectly fits the definition of a speculative asset. That shouldn't be a surprise considering its founders admitted they created it as a joke back in 2013.

换句话说，狗狗币完全符合投机资产的定义。考虑到其创始人在 2013 年就承认他们创建它是为了开玩笑，这应该不足为奇。

In Dogecoin's defense, no cryptocurrencies have garnered mainstream adoption just yet -- not even Bitcoin, which is the most valuable coin in the world. However, Bitcoin is starting to win over the investing community for its potential as a store of value. Some analysts liken it to a digital version of gold.

在狗狗币的辩护中，目前还没有一种加密货币获得主流采用——甚至包括世界上最有价值的硬币比特币。然而，比特币因其作为价值储存手段的潜力而开始赢得投资界的青睐。一些分析师将其比作数字版黄金。

Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million coins, which should be fully mined by the year 2140. Dogecoin, on the other hand, has a limited issuance per year, but new tokens can technically be mined until the end of time. Therefore, it's unlikely Dogecoin will ever be considered a good store of value because investors' holdings will be constantly diluted with no end date.

比特币的供应上限为 2100 万枚，到 2140 年应该会被完全开采出来。另一方面，狗狗币每年的发行量有限，但从技术上讲，新的代币可以开采到时间结束。因此，狗狗币不太可能被认为是一种良好的价值储存手段，因为投资者的持股将不断被稀释，而且没有结束日期。

Dogecoin could fall even further from here

狗狗币可能会进一步下跌

To figure out where Dogecoin could go next, it might be best to take lessons from the past. The speculative frenzy that drove it to a price per token of $0.73 in 2021 fizzled out just as quickly as it started, and investors who were late to the party suffered substantial financial losses.

要弄清楚狗狗币下一步的发展方向，最好从过去吸取教训。 2021 年，投机狂潮将其价格推至每枚代币 0.73 美元，但很快就以失败告终，迟到的投资者蒙受了巨大的经济损失。

Unfortunately, I don't see

不幸的是，我没有看到