狗狗幣即將進入 2025 年，但你應該逢低買入嗎？

自2021 年以來，馬斯克(Elon Musk) 一直是狗狗幣的大力支持者，當時他經常在社交媒體上甚至在當年5 月的《週六夜現場》(SNL) 節目中宣傳狗狗幣。他甚至稱之為他最喜歡的加密貨幣。

The cryptocurrency market is having a banner year. The combined value of all coins and tokens recently hit an all-time high of $3.8 trillion, which is more than quadruple the bear-market low of $823 billion in 2022.

加密貨幣市場迎來了輝煌的一年。所有硬幣和代幣的總價值最近創下了 3.8 兆美元的歷史新高，是 2022 年熊市低點 8,230 億美元的四倍多。

But those gains have come with significant volatility, especially in the more speculative corners of the crypto space. Meme token Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE), for example, had an incredible year-to-date return of 414% until last Wednesday, but it has since plunged by 31%.

但這些收益伴隨著巨大的波動，尤其是在加密貨幣領域中更具投機性的領域。例如，Meme 代幣狗狗幣（CRYPTO：DOGE）截至上週三為止，年初至今的回報率令人難以置信，達到 414％，但此後已暴跌 31％。

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Dogecoin is heading into 2025 with the wind at its back, thanks to a more favorable regulatory environment and continued support from the world's richest person, Elon Musk. So should investors use this recent dip as an opportunity to buy?

由於更有利的監管環境和世界首富伊隆馬斯克的持續支持，狗狗幣將乘風破浪地進入 2025 年。那麼投資者是否應該利用最近的下跌作為買入機會？

Image source: Getty Images.

圖片來源：蓋蒂圖片社。

External forces triggered volatility in Dogecoin

外部力量引發狗狗幣波動

Elon Musk has been a big supporter of Dogecoin since 2021, when he regularly promoted it on social media and even during his appearance on Saturday Night Live (SNL) in May of that year. He even called it his favorite cryptocurrency.

自2021 年以來，馬斯克(Elon Musk) 一直是狗狗幣的大力支持者，當時他經常在社交媒體上甚至在當年5 月的《週六夜現場》(SNL) 節目中宣傳狗狗幣。他甚至稱之為他最喜歡的加密貨幣。

Dogecoin was trading at $0.0046 per token at the beginning of 2021, and within five months, it soared by 15,769% to a record high of $0.73. Musk's support was a big contributor to that move, but his SNL appearance happened to mark the peak. Investors realized he didn't have a concrete plan to back up his vocal support for Dogecoin, so it wound up losing 92% of its value by mid-2022.

2021 年初，狗狗幣的交易價格為每枚 0.0046 美元，五個月內飆升 15,769%，達到 0.73 美元的歷史新高。馬斯克的支持是這項舉措的重要貢獻者，但他在《週六夜現場》的亮相恰好標誌著巔峰。投資者意識到他沒有具體的計劃來支持他對狗狗幣的公開支持，因此到 2022 年中期，狗狗幣的價值最終縮水了 92%。

After remaining mostly dormant in 2023 and for most of 2024, Trump's election win on Nov. 5 was the spark Dogecoin needed to stage a recovery. It appears he will be a very pro-crypto president, and he recently nominated pro-crypto businessman Paul Atkins to run the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), pending Senate approval.

在 2023 年和 2024 年的大部分時間都處於休眠狀態之後，川普在 11 月 5 日的選舉勝利成為狗狗幣復甦所需的火花。看來他將是一位非常支持加密貨幣的總統，他最近提名支持加密貨幣的商人保羅·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins）擔任證券交易委員會（SEC）的負責人，正在等待參議院批准。

That means the crypto industry could face lighter regulation over the next four years, paving the way for new use cases, which might be the key to creating value. However, Dogecoin enthusiasts received another surprise when Trump nominated Musk to head an agency called the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE for short. The acronym is a reference to his favorite cryptocurrency, which sent investors into a frenzy.

這意味著加密產業可能在未來四年面臨更寬鬆的監管，為新的用例鋪路，這可能是創造價值的關鍵。然而，當川普提名馬斯克領導一個名為政府效率部（簡稱 DOGE）的機構時，狗狗幣愛好者又收到了另一個驚喜。這個縮寫是指他最喜歡的加密貨幣，這讓投資者陷入了瘋狂。

Dogecoin soared to a 52-week high of $0.47 earlier this month, and it was charging toward its 2021 record of $0.73. But it has since plummeted 31% since last Wednesday, because the U.S. Federal Reserve issued a new forecast pointing to fewer interest rate cuts next year. Interest rates don't affect Dogecoin directly, but a higher cost of money tends to weigh on the more speculative areas of the financial markets. It's easier to profit from borrowed funds when interest rates are low, after all.

本月早些時候，狗狗幣飆升至 0.47 美元的 52 週高點，並正在向 2021 年的記錄 0.73 美元衝刺。但自上週三以來，該指數已暴跌 31%，因為聯準會發布了新的預測，指出明年降息幅度較小。利率不會直接影響狗狗幣，但較高的資金成本往往會對金融市場的投機性較高的領域帶來壓力。畢竟，當利率較低時，更容易從借入資金中獲利。

Dogecoin still lacks real fundamentals

狗狗幣仍然缺乏真正的基本面

Dogecoin doesn't have many real use cases. According to Cryptwerk, just 2,412 merchants are willing to accept it as payment worldwide, and many of them are obscure internet businesses, crypto service providers, and even online gambling houses. If consumers can't spend their Dogecoin tokens at their favorite stores, they have no reason to own them except in the hope they will increase in value.

狗狗幣沒有很多實際用例。據 Cryptwerk 稱，全球只有 2,412 家商家願意接受這種支付方式，其中許多是默默無聞的網路企業、加密貨幣服務提供商，甚至是線上賭場。如果消費者不能在他們最喜歡的商店消費他們的狗狗幣代幣，他們就沒有理由擁有它們，除非希望它們能增值。

In other words, Dogecoin perfectly fits the definition of a speculative asset. That shouldn't be a surprise considering its founders admitted they created it as a joke back in 2013.

換句話說，狗狗幣完全符合投機資產的定義。考慮到其創始人在 2013 年就承認他們創建它是為了開玩笑，這應該不足為奇。

In Dogecoin's defense, no cryptocurrencies have garnered mainstream adoption just yet -- not even Bitcoin, which is the most valuable coin in the world. However, Bitcoin is starting to win over the investing community for its potential as a store of value. Some analysts liken it to a digital version of gold.

在狗狗幣的辯護中，目前還沒有一種加密貨幣獲得主流採用——甚至包括世界上最有價值的硬幣比特幣。然而，比特幣因其作為價值儲存手段的潛力而開始贏得投資界的青睞。一些分析師將其比作數位版黃金。

Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million coins, which should be fully mined by the year 2140. Dogecoin, on the other hand, has a limited issuance per year, but new tokens can technically be mined until the end of time. Therefore, it's unlikely Dogecoin will ever be considered a good store of value because investors' holdings will be constantly diluted with no end date.

比特幣的供應上限為 2100 萬枚，到 2140 年應該會被完全開採出來 另一方面，狗狗幣每年的發行量有限，但從技術上講，新的代幣可以開採到時間結束。因此，狗狗幣不太可能被認為是一種良好的價值儲存手段，因為投資者的持股將持續被稀釋，而且沒有結束日期。

Dogecoin could fall even further from here

狗狗幣可能會進一步下跌

To figure out where Dogecoin could go next, it might be best to take lessons from the past. The speculative frenzy that drove it to a price per token of $0.73 in 2021 fizzled out just as quickly as it started, and investors who were late to the party suffered substantial financial losses.

要弄清楚狗狗幣下一步的發展方向，最好從過去吸取教訓。 2021 年，投機狂潮將其價格推至每枚代幣 0.73 美元，但很快就以失敗告終，遲到的投資者蒙受了巨大的經濟損失。

Unfortunately, I don't see

不幸的是，我沒有看到