狗狗币值得买入吗？

由于其波动性，加密货币市场长期以来一直受到激进投资者（也许更准确地描述为投机者）的喜爱。

The cryptocurrency market has been a favorite of aggressive investors (perhaps more accurately described as speculators) because of its volatility. At their best, these digital assets can trounce traditional stock market indexes like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

由于其波动性，加密货币市场一直是激进投资者（也许更准确地描述为投机者）的最爱。在最好的情况下，这些数字资产可以击败标准普尔 500 指数或纳斯达克综合指数等传统股票市场指数。

With its price up by about 340% year to date at the time of writing, Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) is an excellent example of this explosive, millionaire-making potential. That said, hype can sustain a rally for only so long before reality kicks in. Let's discuss whether Dogecoin's fundamentals can sustain continued gains over the long term.

截至撰写本文时，狗狗币（加密货币：DOGE）的价格今年迄今已上涨约 340%，是这种爆炸性的百万富翁创造潜力的一个很好的例子。也就是说，炒作只能在现实出现之前维持反弹。让我们讨论一下狗狗币的基本面是否可以长期维持持续上涨。

Why Dogecoin?

为什么是狗狗币？

Introduced in 2013, Dogecoin is likely the first of the meme coins, a class of cryptocurrency based on online jokes. Meme coins typically aren't designed for real-world utility or to improve upon the shortcomings of other blockchain platforms. That said, their market caps tend to be smaller than those of mainstream cryptocurrencies, making them volatile and capable of explosive returns when industry sentiment is bullish.

狗狗币于 2013 年推出，可能是第一个模因币，这是一类基于在线笑话的加密货币。 Meme 币通常不是为现实世界的实用性或改进其他区块链平台的缺点而设计的。也就是说，它们的市值往往小于主流加密货币，这使得它们波动较大，并且在行业情绪看涨时能够获得爆炸性回报。

Dogecoin was a relatively poor performer until 2021, when it rocketed into the mainstream after supportive tweets from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Low interest rates and government stimulus after the COVID-19 pandemic likely contributed to the asset's bull run.

直到 2021 年，狗狗币的表现相对较差，但在特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 发推文支持后，狗狗币迅速成为主流。 COVID-19 大流行后的低利率和政府刺激措施可能促成了该资产的牛市。

Despite starting as a joke, Dogecoin has shown impressive performance. As the chart below shows, the coin has risen 103,400% since its inception, while Bitcoin has grown 16,470% during the same period. But while Dogecoin has minted its fair share of millionaires, it has also destroyed a lot of wealth in the process. Prices are still down about 45% from their all-time high of $0.7376, reached in May 2021.

尽管狗狗币一开始只是一个笑话，但它已经表现出了令人印象深刻的表现。如下图所示，该币自诞生以来已上涨 103,400%，而比特币同期上涨了 16,470%。尽管狗狗币创造了相当多的百万富翁，但它也在这个过程中摧毁了大量财富。价格仍较 2021 年 5 月达到的历史高点 0.7376 美元下跌约 45%。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的狗狗币价格数据

What is behind the latest rally?

最近的反弹背后是什么？

While investing in Dogecoin can be considered a higher-risk, higher-reward way to play the cryptocurrency industry, potential investors should consider its fundamentals.

虽然投资狗狗币可以被认为是加密货币行业高风险、高回报的方式，但潜在投资者应该考虑其基本面。

Like Dogecoin's previous bull run in 2021, the asset's latest move is linked to Elon Musk, who is once again supporting the coin on X (formerly Twitter). The outspoken ally of the Trump administration will also be involved in a watchdog federal agency called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The organization's name's similarity to Dogecoin's ticker symbol is likely no accident.

与狗狗币 2021 年的上一次牛市一样，该资产的最新走势与埃隆·马斯克有关，后者再次在 X（前身为 Twitter）上支持狗狗币。这位特朗普政府直言不讳的盟友还将参与一个名为政府效率部（DOGE）的联邦监管机构。该组织的名称与狗狗币的股票代码相似可能并非偶然。

On a more substantive level, investors may expect Musk's influence in the new administration to lead to a more favorable regulatory climate.

在更实质性的层面上，投资者可能预计马斯克对新政府的影响力将带来更有利的监管环境。

According to Time, Trump will replace the current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman, Gary Gensler, who said he will resign when Donald Trump takes office as president. Gensler is credited (or blamed) for bringing several lawsuits against cryptocurrency platforms for alleged violations of securities laws. Targets included crypto exchange Coinbase Global, which the SEC sued in June for allegedly acting as an unregistered broker and exchange.

据《时代》杂志报道，特朗普将接替现任美国证券交易委员会（SEC）主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler），后者表示他将在唐纳德·特朗普就任总统后辞职。 Gensler 因涉嫌违反证券法而对加密货币平台提起多起诉讼而受到赞誉（或受到指责）。目标包括加密货币交易所 Coinbase Global，美国证券交易委员会于 6 月份起诉该公司，称其涉嫌充当未注册的经纪人和交易所。

During the coming years, the government will help shape how the public interacts with digital assets. And many believe that Trump's proposed SEC head, Paul Atkins, will take a less heavy-handed approach.

未来几年，政府将帮助塑造公众与数字资产的互动方式。许多人认为，特朗普提名的 SEC 主席保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 将采取不那么严厉的做法。

Is Dogecoin a buy?

狗狗币值得购买吗？

In the near term, the future of the cryptocurrency industry looks bright. A more favorable regulatory climate could improve access to this fast-growing asset class and make it more palatable to large institutional investors who can be expected to buy and hold for the long term.

短期内，加密货币行业的未来看起来一片光明。更有利的监管环境可以改善这种快速增长的资产类别的投资机会，并使其更容易受到大型机构投资者的青睐，这些投资者有望长期购买并持有该资产。

That said, Dogecoin's fundamentals could be a challenge.

也就是说，狗狗币的基本面可能是一个挑战。

The platform is designed to create 5 billion new coins per year (147 billion units are now in circulation). This built-in supply growth could help Dogecoin function better as a medium of exchange by improving liquidity, but it makes Dogecoin less attractive to hold as a long-term investment. While this crypto has made plenty of millionaires, the risks of buying it at the top of this current rally seem to outweigh the potential rewards.

该平台旨在每年创造 50 亿枚新币（目前流通量为 1,470 亿枚）。这种内在的供应增长可以通过提高流动性来帮助狗狗币更好地发挥交易媒介的作用，但它会降低狗狗币作为长期投资持有的吸引力。虽然这种加密货币造就了很多百万富翁，但在当前反弹的顶部购买它的风险似乎超过了潜在的回报。