狗狗幣值得買入嗎？

由於其波動性，加密貨幣市場長期以來一直受到積極投資者（也許更準確地描述為投機者）的喜愛。

The cryptocurrency market has been a favorite of aggressive investors (perhaps more accurately described as speculators) because of its volatility. At their best, these digital assets can trounce traditional stock market indexes like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite.

由於其波動性，加密貨幣市場一直是積極投資者（也許更準確地描述為投機者）的最愛。在最好的情況下，這些數位資產可以擊敗標準普爾 500 指數或納斯達克綜合指數等傳統股票市場指數。

With its price up by about 340% year to date at the time of writing, Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) is an excellent example of this explosive, millionaire-making potential. That said, hype can sustain a rally for only so long before reality kicks in. Let's discuss whether Dogecoin's fundamentals can sustain continued gains over the long term.

截至撰寫本文時，狗狗幣（加密貨幣：DOGE）的價格今年迄今已上漲約 340%，是這種爆炸性的百萬富翁創造潛力的一個很好的例子。也就是說，炒作只能在現實出現之前維持反彈。

Why Dogecoin?

為什麼是狗狗幣？

Introduced in 2013, Dogecoin is likely the first of the meme coins, a class of cryptocurrency based on online jokes. Meme coins typically aren't designed for real-world utility or to improve upon the shortcomings of other blockchain platforms. That said, their market caps tend to be smaller than those of mainstream cryptocurrencies, making them volatile and capable of explosive returns when industry sentiment is bullish.

狗狗幣於 2013 年推出，可能是第一個迷因幣，​​這是一類基於線上笑話的加密貨幣。 Meme 幣通常不是為現實世界的實用性或改進其他區塊鏈平台的缺點而設計的。也就是說，它們的市值往往小於主流加密貨幣，這使得它們波動較大，並且在行業情緒看漲時能夠獲得爆炸性回報。

Dogecoin was a relatively poor performer until 2021, when it rocketed into the mainstream after supportive tweets from Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. Low interest rates and government stimulus after the COVID-19 pandemic likely contributed to the asset's bull run.

直到 2021 年，狗狗幣的表現相對較差，但在特斯拉執行長馬斯克 (Elon Musk) 發推文支持後，狗狗幣迅速成為主流。 COVID-19 大流行後的低利率和政府刺激措施可能促成了該資產的多頭市場。

Despite starting as a joke, Dogecoin has shown impressive performance. As the chart below shows, the coin has risen 103,400% since its inception, while Bitcoin has grown 16,470% during the same period. But while Dogecoin has minted its fair share of millionaires, it has also destroyed a lot of wealth in the process. Prices are still down about 45% from their all-time high of $0.7376, reached in May 2021.

儘管狗狗幣一開始只是個笑話，但它已經展現了令人印象深刻的表現。如下圖所示，該幣自誕生以來已上漲 103,400%，而比特幣同期上漲了 16,470%。儘管狗狗幣創造了相當多的百萬富翁，但它也在這個過程中摧毀了大量財富。價格仍較 2021 年 5 月達到的歷史高點 0.7376 美元下跌約 45%。

Dogecoin Price data by YCharts

YCharts 提供的狗狗幣價格數據

What is behind the latest rally?

最近的反彈背後是什麼？

While investing in Dogecoin can be considered a higher-risk, higher-reward way to play the cryptocurrency industry, potential investors should consider its fundamentals.

雖然投資狗狗幣可以被認為是加密貨幣行業高風險、高回報的方式，但潛在投資者應該考慮其基本面。

Like Dogecoin's previous bull run in 2021, the asset's latest move is linked to Elon Musk, who is once again supporting the coin on X (formerly Twitter). The outspoken ally of the Trump administration will also be involved in a watchdog federal agency called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The organization's name's similarity to Dogecoin's ticker symbol is likely no accident.

與狗狗幣 2021 年的上一次牛市一樣，該資產的最新走勢與伊隆馬斯克有關，後者再次在 X（前身為 Twitter）上支援狗狗幣。這位川普政府直言不諱的盟友也將參與一個名為政府效率部（DOGE）的聯邦監管機構。該組織的名稱與狗狗幣的股票代碼相似可能並非偶然。

On a more substantive level, investors may expect Musk's influence in the new administration to lead to a more favorable regulatory climate.

在更實質的層面上，投資者可能會預期馬斯克對新政府的影響力將帶來更有利的監管環境。

According to Time, Trump will replace the current Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman, Gary Gensler, who said he will resign when Donald Trump takes office as president. Gensler is credited (or blamed) for bringing several lawsuits against cryptocurrency platforms for alleged violations of securities laws. Targets included crypto exchange Coinbase Global, which the SEC sued in June for allegedly acting as an unregistered broker and exchange.

根據《時代》雜誌報道，川普將接替現任美國證券交易委員會（SEC）主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler），後者表示他將在唐納德·川普就任總統後辭職。 Gensler 因涉嫌違反證券法而對加密貨幣平台提起多起訴訟而受到讚譽（或受到指責）。目標包括加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase Global，美國證券交易委員會於 6 月起訴該公司，稱其涉嫌充當未註冊的經紀人和交易所。

During the coming years, the government will help shape how the public interacts with digital assets. And many believe that Trump's proposed SEC head, Paul Atkins, will take a less heavy-handed approach.

未來幾年，政府將幫助塑造公眾與數位資產的互動方式。許多人認為，川普提名的 SEC 主席保羅阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 將採取不那麼嚴厲的做法。

Is Dogecoin a buy?

狗狗幣值得買嗎？

In the near term, the future of the cryptocurrency industry looks bright. A more favorable regulatory climate could improve access to this fast-growing asset class and make it more palatable to large institutional investors who can be expected to buy and hold for the long term.

短期內，加密貨幣產業的未來看起來一片光明。更有利的監管環境可以改善這種快速成長的資產類別的投資機會，並使其更容易受到大型機構投資者的青睞，這些投資者有望長期購買並持有該資產。

That said, Dogecoin's fundamentals could be a challenge.

也就是說，狗狗幣的基本面可能是一個挑戰。

The platform is designed to create 5 billion new coins per year (147 billion units are now in circulation). This built-in supply growth could help Dogecoin function better as a medium of exchange by improving liquidity, but it makes Dogecoin less attractive to hold as a long-term investment. While this crypto has made plenty of millionaires, the risks of buying it at the top of this current rally seem to outweigh the potential rewards.

該平台旨在每年創造 50 億枚新幣（目前流通量為 1,470 億枚）。這種內在的供應成長可以透過提高流動性來幫助狗狗幣更好地發揮交易媒介的作用，但它會降低狗狗幣作為長期投資持有的吸引力。雖然這種加密貨幣造就了許多百萬富翁，但在當前反彈的頂部購買它的風險似乎超過了潛在的回報。