现在是我见过的最分裂的市场。

公牛将其视为替代赛季前的最后一次下降。

Right now is the most divided market I've ever seen.

现在是我见过的最分裂的市场。

Bulls see this as the final dip before altseason takes off.

公牛将其视为替代赛季前的最后一次下降。

Bears insist $BTC bull run is finished.

Bears坚持$ BTC BULL RUN已完成。

Here’s exactly how the market could reverse and why👇🧵

这正是市场的逆转方式以及为什么

Everyone is talking about how this cryptocurrency cycle is different every year, and everything changes.

每个人都在谈论这个加密货币周期每年有何不同，一切都在变化。

What we've seen so far in this cycle:

到目前为止，我们在这个周期中看到了什么：

- Meme coins have replaced Altseason

- 模因硬币取代了altseason

- Ethereum is trading at the same price as 4 years ago, still not updating its ATH

- 以太坊的交易价格与4年前相同，但仍未更新其ATH

- Bitcoin managed to test the ATH, as well as the $100,000 mark, but failed to consolidate

- 比特币设法测试了ATH以及100,000美元的大关，但未能合并

This is what it means 👇

这就是它的含义👇

▫️ Option 1

▫️选项1

As you already understood, this cycle is different from the previous ones.

正如您已经了解的那样，这个周期与以前的周期不同。

In the previous cycle, there was a lack of investment and savings from institutions, countries, and large companies. Now the picture is different; they are all actively accumulating BTC and other coins.

在上一个周期中，机构，国家和大公司缺乏投资和储蓄。现在图片不同了。他们都积极积累BTC和其他硬币。

BlackRock: 577,919 BTC

贝莱德：577,919 BTC

MicroStrategy: 330,645 BTC

MicroStrategy：330,645 BTC

Countries:

国家：

- China

- 中国

- Vietnam

- 越南

- Argentina

- 阿根廷

- Egypt

- 埃及

- Panama

- 巴拿马

- Cyprus

- 塞浦路斯

Long-term attention and pressure on $BTC will increase, which will lead to the following:

长期关注和对$ BTC的压力将增加，这将导致以下内容：

- Bitcoin dominance will increase.

- 比特币优势将增加。

- Bitcoin will be a leader, just like gold, or a cut above.

- 比特币将是领导者，就像黄金或上面的削减一样。

- The spills/kickbacks will not be so serious, as they will be actively bought out.

- 溢出/回扣不会那么严重，因为它们将被积极收购。

But such movements only lead to a rejection of altcoins, as well as a decrease in attention to them

但是，这样的运动只会导致拒绝山寨币，以及对它们的关注下降

Altcoins are getting less liquidity and interest.

山寨币的流动性和兴趣较小。

None of the sectors can actively accumulate liquidity because more assets are in the market and they are distributed.

由于更多的资产在市场上并且分配了更多的资产，因此没有一个部门可以积极积累流动性。

This can be seen on the charts when comparing the MEME sector and DeFi sector:

在比较模因部门和偏见部门时，可以在图表上看到这一点：

- Last cycle: memecoin market was half that of DeFi.

- 最后一个周期：Memecoin市场是Defi的一半。

- This cycle: memecoin market cap equals or exceeds DeFi's.

- 此周期：Memecoin市值等于或超过Defi。

This stops one of the sectors from skyrockOTING.

这阻止了其中一个扇区的飞机。

This cycle is really different:

这个周期确实不同：

- Bitcoin dominance continues to increase as more people/companies/countries choose to hold capital (which is key) in Bitcoin

- 随着越来越多的人/公司/国家选择持有比特币中的资本（这是关键），比特币的优势继续增加

- The fate of altcoins will depend on trends, whichever goes viral faster will be the category that gets pumped (mini bull)

- 山寨币的命运将取决于趋势，以更快的速度流行的趋势将是被抽水的类别（迷你公牛）

Previous cycle scenarios are no longer applicable, we need to adapt to what we have now.

以前的周期场景不再适用，我们需要适应我们现在拥有的东西。

▫️Option 2

▫️Option2

We are still in the process of determining when the correction will occur.

我们仍在确定何时进行校正的过程中。

Bitcoin needs to go through stages of accumulation, decline, despair, so that then there will be growth, which not many will wait for

比特币需要经历积累，衰落，绝望的阶段，这样就会有增长，没有多少人会等待

Bitcoin's recent decline stands at just -24.82% below its all-time high, a relatively small drop.

比特币最近的下降幅度仅比其历史最高高的24.82％，跌幅相对较小。

In earlier bull markets, Bitcoin has often fallen back 40-50% from its peak before rallying again.

在较早的牛市，比特币在再次集会之前，比特币经常从高峰降低40-50％。

Based on past performance, this suggests significant potential for further growth.

基于过去的表现，这表明了进一步增长的巨大潜力。

If we look at the cycles, the growth of altcoins started in parallel with the growth of $ETH

如果我们看一下周期，则altcoins的增长与$ eth的增长始于

but this time we did not even see an attempt to beat the previous ATH

但是这次我们甚至没有看到试图击败以前的Ath

This means that the altcoin season is postponed indefinitely...

这意味着Altcoin季节是无限期推迟的...

ETH/BTC signal

ETH/BTC信号

If there is a reversal in the ETH/BTC situation, we could see a rally in altcoins as capital starts to flow into them.

如果在ETH/BTC情况下存在逆转，我们可以看到Altcoins的集会随着资本开始流入其中时。

With the recent meme coin rug pulls from presidents/individuals, people are increasingly turning to DeFi, RWA, and other utility sectors.

随着最近的Meme硬币地毯从总统/个人那里拉出，人们越来越多地转向Defi，RWA和其他公用事业部门。

Investors are not considering and do not expect Bitcoin to fall by 40-50%, which is a signal for a long-term game.

投资者没有考虑，也不希望比特币下降40-50％，这是长期游戏的信号。

Most are leaving and will leave this race in the future, because it is impossible to constantly be in confusion, falling prices, and liquidations.

大多数人要离开并将在将来离开这场比赛，因为不可能不断混淆，价格下跌和清算。

How to survive?

如何生存？

- If Bitcoin is going to strengthen, long $BTC, short weak coins

- 如果比特币要加强，则长$ btc，短弱硬币

- If you see that altcoins have found the bottom, do not hesitate to buy a couple of fundamentally strong coins from the top 100.

- 如果您看到Altcoins找到了底部，请随时从前100名中购买几枚坚固的硬币。