5个发散信号指向2025年4月下半年的比特币价格集会和Altcoin恢复

差异是数据分析中的关键概念。当两个指标的值突然移动并朝相反的方向移动时，就会发生这种情况

The crypto market is showing positive signs in the second half of April 2025. Several divergence signals have appeared, suggesting a potential recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins.

加密市场在2025年4月下半年显示出积极的迹象。出现了几种差异信号，这表明比特币和山寨币有潜在的恢复。

Divergence is a key concept in data analysis. It happens when the values of two metrics suddenly shift and move in opposite directions compared to their previous trend. This often signals a change in price momentum.

差异是数据分析中的关键概念。当两个指标的值突然转移并朝着以前的趋势相比，这会发生这种情况。这通常标志着价格势头的变化。

Based on expert analysis and market data, this article highlights five major divergence signals—three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins—to help investors better understand the market outlook.

基于专家分析和市场数据，本文重点介绍了五个主要的差异信号（三个比特币，两个用于替代币），以帮助投资者更好地了解市场前景。

3 Divergence Signals in April Point to a Bitcoin Price Rally

4月的3个发散信号指向比特币价格集会

Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) move in opposite directions. When DXY rises, Bitcoin tends to fall, and vice versa. But from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY moved in the same direction.

从历史上看，比特币和DXY指数（美元指数）朝相反的方向移动。当DXY上升时，比特币倾向于下降，反之亦然。但是从2024年9月到2025年3月，比特币和DXY朝着同一方向移动。

This correlation broke in April when the US announced a new tariff policy. The inverse relationship seems to have returned.

当美国宣布新的关税政策时，这种相关性破裂。逆关系似乎已经返回。

Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, noted that Bitcoin started decoupling from the US dollar after the announcement of the sweeping tariff regime. A chart from his post shows that in April, while the DXY fell sharply from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin surged from around $75,000 to over $91,000.

Healabitcoin的增长负责人乔·科斯蒂（Joe Counsorti）指出，比特币在宣布广泛的关税政权宣布后开始与美元取消。他的帖子中的一张图表显示，4月，尽管DXY从103.5急剧下降至98.5，但比特币从约75,000美元飙升至91,000美元以上。

This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.

这种差异可能反映出投资者在关税引起的全球经济不确定性中转向比特币是一种避免的资产。

"Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining," Joe Consorti predicted.Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, an advisor to Blockstream. He pointed out a separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index, which represents tech stocks.

乔·康斯蒂（Joe Constorti）预测，自美国宣布全球经济重新订购，黄金和比特币时，比特币一直与美元不同。在全球经济重新订购，黄金和比特币中。他指出，比特币与纳斯达克指数之间的分离，该指数代表科技股。

Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment. But in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth. It no longer moves in sync with the NASDAQ. While some, like Ecoinometrics, argue that this divergence isn’t necessarily bullish, Demeester remains optimistic.

从历史上看，由于比特币与技术和宏观经济情绪有关，因此密切关注了纳斯达克。但是在2025年4月，比特币开始显示独立的增长。它不再与纳斯达克同步移动。尽管有些人像生态计量学一样，认为这种差异不一定是看好的，但德米斯特仍然乐观。

"Bitcoin divergence" and "Bitcoin decoupling" will be dominant headlines for 2025," Tuur Demeester said.Specifically, NASDAQ has faced downward pressure from interest rate concerns and slowing growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strength, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.

图尔·德米斯特（Tuur Demester）说，“比特币差异”和“比特币脱耦”将是2025年的主要头条新闻。尤其是，纳斯达克面临着从利率关注和增长速度放缓的下降压力。同时，比特币表现出了强大的实力，并具有很大的价格。

Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak.

来自加密素养的数据突出了另一种差异，这是投资者行为的时间。长期比特币持有人（LTH，那些持有BTC超过155天的人）在最近的当地高峰后再次累积。

In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound.

相比之下，短期持有人（STH）正在售出。这种分歧通常标志着重新蓄能阶段的早期阶段，并暗示了未来的价格反弹。

"Why This Divergence Matters? LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase," IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted.

“为什么这种差异很重要？lth行为通常与宏观信念相关，而不是投机性的举动。STH活动通常是情感和反应性的，受到价格波动和恐惧的驱动。当LTH积累符合STH的压制时，它倾向于发出重新占用阶段的早期阶段，” IT技术，IT CryptoQuantequant的分析师。

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Another interesting divergence is highlighted by Ecoinometrics. They noted that despite the narrative of a "risk-off" market with stocks selling off, there was a lack of selling pressure on individual stocks. Instead of panic-selling, investors were calmly rotating out of tech stocks and shifting towards other sectors.

生态计量学强调了另一个有趣的差异。他们指出，尽管销售股票的“冒险”市场的叙述，但缺乏对单个股票的销售压力。投资者没有惊慌失措，而是从技术股票中旋转并转向其他部门。

This lack of selling urgency is evident in the low "365-day new lows" indicator for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ Indices. Both remained below 50 throughout April, indicating that a significant portion of stocks had not yet reached their lowest price point within the past year.

在S＆P500和NASDAQ指数的低“ 365天新低点”指标中，缺乏销售紧迫性是显而易见的。在整个4月，两者都保持在50岁以下，这表明在过去一年中，很大一部分股票尚未达到其最低价格。

However, when looking at the "365-day new lows" indicator for the total altcoin market capitalization, there was a sharp increase to nearly 150 in March 2025. This signaled that a large number of altcoins had hit their lowest point within the year.

但是，当查看总山寨币市值的“ 365天新低点”指标时，2025年3月的急剧增加到了近150个。这表明，大量山寨币在一年中达到了最低点。

But in April, this indicator dropped back down to 50 as the total altcoin market capitalization fell further. This divergence usually indicates that the selling momentum is weakening and the market may be bottoming out.

但是在4月，随着山寨币市值进一步下降，该指标下降到50个。这种差异通常表明销售势头正在减弱，市场可能正在降低。

In simpler terms, fewer altcoins hitting rock bottom means less panic-selling. It suggests that negative market sentiment is fading. At the same time, rising prices show renewed buying interest. These factors hint that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

用更简单的话来说，较少的山寨币击中岩石底部意味着更少的恐慌销售。这表明负面的市场情绪正在消失。同时，价格上涨显示出了购买利息。这些因素暗示，AltCoins可能正在为恢复（甚至是“ Altcoin季节”）的准备，这是Altcoins胜过比特币的时期。

This technical divergence on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D) suggests that BTC.D might soon undergo a

比特币优势图（BTC.D）上的这种技术差异表明，BTC.D可能很快就会发生