5個發散信號指向2025年4月下半年的比特幣價格集會和Altcoin恢復

差異是數據分析中的關鍵概念。當兩個指標的值突然移動並朝相反的方向移動時，就會發生這種情況

The crypto market is showing positive signs in the second half of April 2025. Several divergence signals have appeared, suggesting a potential recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins.

加密市場在2025年4月下半年顯示出積極的跡象。出現了幾種差異信號，這表明比特幣和山寨幣有潛在的恢復。

Divergence is a key concept in data analysis. It happens when the values of two metrics suddenly shift and move in opposite directions compared to their previous trend. This often signals a change in price momentum.

差異是數據分析中的關鍵概念。當兩個指標的值突然轉移並朝著以前的趨勢相比，這會發生這種情況。這通常標誌著價格勢頭的變化。

Based on expert analysis and market data, this article highlights five major divergence signals—three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins—to help investors better understand the market outlook.

基於專家分析和市場數據，本文重點介紹了五個主要的差異信號（三個比特幣，兩個用於替代幣），以幫助投資者更好地了解市場前景。

3 Divergence Signals in April Point to a Bitcoin Price Rally

4月的3個發散信號指向比特幣價格集會

Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) move in opposite directions. When DXY rises, Bitcoin tends to fall, and vice versa. But from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY moved in the same direction.

從歷史上看，比特幣和DXY指數（美元指數）朝相反的方向移動。當DXY上升時，比特幣傾向於下降，反之亦然。但是從2024年9月到2025年3月，比特幣和DXY朝著同一方向移動。

This correlation broke in April when the US announced a new tariff policy. The inverse relationship seems to have returned.

當美國宣布新的關稅政策時，這種相關性破裂。逆關係似乎已經返回。

Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, noted that Bitcoin started decoupling from the US dollar after the announcement of the sweeping tariff regime. A chart from his post shows that in April, while the DXY fell sharply from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin surged from around $75,000 to over $91,000.

Healabitcoin的增長負責人喬·科斯蒂（Joe Counsorti）指出，比特幣在宣布廣泛的關稅政權宣布後開始與美元取消。他的帖子中的一張圖表顯示，4月，儘管DXY從103.5急劇下降至98.5，但比特幣從約75,000美元飆升至91,000美元以上。

This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.

這種差異可能反映出投資者在關稅引起的全球經濟不確定性中轉向比特幣是一種避免的資產。

"Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining," Joe Consorti predicted.Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, an advisor to Blockstream. He pointed out a separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index, which represents tech stocks.

喬·康斯蒂（Joe Constorti）預測，自美國宣布全球經濟重新訂購，黃金和比特幣時，比特幣一直與美元不同。在全球經濟重新訂購，黃金和比特幣中。他指出，比特幣與納斯達克指數之間的分離，該指數代表科技股。

Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment. But in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth. It no longer moves in sync with the NASDAQ. While some, like Ecoinometrics, argue that this divergence isn’t necessarily bullish, Demeester remains optimistic.

從歷史上看，由於比特幣與技術和宏觀經濟情緒有關，因此密切關注了納斯達克。但是在2025年4月，比特幣開始顯示獨立的增長。它不再與納斯達克同步移動。儘管有些人像生態計量學一樣，認為這種差異不一定是看好的，但德米斯特仍然樂觀。

"Bitcoin divergence" and "Bitcoin decoupling" will be dominant headlines for 2025," Tuur Demeester said.Specifically, NASDAQ has faced downward pressure from interest rate concerns and slowing growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strength, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.

圖爾·德米斯特（Tuur Demester）說，“比特幣差異”和“比特幣脫耦”將是2025年的主要頭條新聞。尤其是，納斯達克面臨著從利率關注和增長速度放緩的下降壓力。同時，比特幣表現出了強大的實力，並具有很大的價格。

Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak.

來自加密素養的數據突出了另一種差異，這是投資者行為的時間。長期比特幣持有人（LTH，那些持有BTC超過155天的人）在最近的當地高峰後再次累積。

In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound.

相比之下，短期持有人（STH）正在售出。這種分歧通常標誌著重新蓄能階段的早期階段，並暗示了未來的價格反彈。

"Why This Divergence Matters? LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase," IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted.

“為什麼這種差異很重要？lth行為通常與宏觀信念相關，而不是投機性的舉動。STH活動通常是情感和反應性的，受到價格波動和恐懼的驅動。當LTH積累符合STH的壓制時，它傾向於發出重新佔用階段的早期階段，” IT技術，IT CryptoQuantequant的分析師。

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Another interesting divergence is highlighted by Ecoinometrics. They noted that despite the narrative of a "risk-off" market with stocks selling off, there was a lack of selling pressure on individual stocks. Instead of panic-selling, investors were calmly rotating out of tech stocks and shifting towards other sectors.

生態計量學強調了另一個有趣的差異。他們指出，儘管銷售股票的“冒險”市場的敘述，但缺乏對單個股票的銷售壓力。投資者沒有驚慌失措，而是從技術股票中旋轉並轉向其他部門。

This lack of selling urgency is evident in the low "365-day new lows" indicator for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ Indices. Both remained below 50 throughout April, indicating that a significant portion of stocks had not yet reached their lowest price point within the past year.

在S＆P500和NASDAQ指數的低“ 365天新低點”指標中，缺乏銷售緊迫性是顯而易見的。在整個4月，兩者都保持在50歲以下，這表明在過去一年中，很大一部分股票尚未達到其最低價格。

However, when looking at the "365-day new lows" indicator for the total altcoin market capitalization, there was a sharp increase to nearly 150 in March 2025. This signaled that a large number of altcoins had hit their lowest point within the year.

但是，當查看總山寨幣市值的“ 365天新低點”指標時，2025年3月的急劇增加到了近150個。這表明，大量山寨幣在一年中達到了最低點。

But in April, this indicator dropped back down to 50 as the total altcoin market capitalization fell further. This divergence usually indicates that the selling momentum is weakening and the market may be bottoming out.

但是在4月，隨著山寨幣市值進一步下降，該指標下降到50個。這種差異通常表明銷售勢頭正在減弱，市場可能正在降低。

In simpler terms, fewer altcoins hitting rock bottom means less panic-selling. It suggests that negative market sentiment is fading. At the same time, rising prices show renewed buying interest. These factors hint that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

用更簡單的話來說，較少的山寨幣擊中岩石底部意味著更少的恐慌銷售。這表明負面的市場情緒正在消失。同時，價格上漲顯示出了購買利息。這些因素暗示，AltCoins可能正在為恢復（甚至是“ Altcoin季節”）的準備，這是Altcoins勝過比特幣的時期。

This technical divergence on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D) suggests that BTC.D might soon undergo a

比特幣優勢圖（BTC.D）上的這種技術差異表明，BTC.D可能很快就會發生