5 Divergence Signals Point to a Bitcoin Price Rally and Altcoin Recovery in the Second Half of April 2025

Divergence is a key concept in data analysis. It happens when the values of two metrics suddenly shift and move in opposite directions

The crypto market is showing positive signs in the second half of April 2025. Several divergence signals have appeared, suggesting a potential recovery for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Divergence is a key concept in data analysis. It happens when the values of two metrics suddenly shift and move in opposite directions compared to their previous trend. This often signals a change in price momentum.

Based on expert analysis and market data, this article highlights five major divergence signals—three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins—to help investors better understand the market outlook.

3 Divergence Signals in April Point to a Bitcoin Price Rally

Historically, Bitcoin and the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) move in opposite directions. When DXY rises, Bitcoin tends to fall, and vice versa. But from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY moved in the same direction.

This correlation broke in April when the US announced a new tariff policy. The inverse relationship seems to have returned.

Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, noted that Bitcoin started decoupling from the US dollar after the announcement of the sweeping tariff regime. A chart from his post shows that in April, while the DXY fell sharply from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin surged from around $75,000 to over $91,000.

This divergence may reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty caused by the tariffs.

"Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining," Joe Consorti predicted.Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, an advisor to Blockstream. He pointed out a separation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ Index, which represents tech stocks.

Historically, Bitcoin closely followed the NASDAQ due to its ties to tech and macroeconomic sentiment. But in April 2025, Bitcoin started showing independent growth. It no longer moves in sync with the NASDAQ. While some, like Ecoinometrics, argue that this divergence isn’t necessarily bullish, Demeester remains optimistic.

"Bitcoin divergence" and "Bitcoin decoupling" will be dominant headlines for 2025," Tuur Demeester said.Specifically, NASDAQ has faced downward pressure from interest rate concerns and slowing growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strength, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin is cementing its role as a standalone asset less tied to traditional markets.

Data from CryptoQuant highlights another divergence—this time in investor behavior. Long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who’ve held BTC for over 155 days) began accumulating again after the recent local peak.

In contrast, short-term holders (STH) are selling off. This divergence often signals the early stage of a re-accumulation phase and hints at a future price rebound.

"Why This Divergence Matters? LTH behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative moves. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When LTH accumulation meets STH capitulation, it tends to signal early stages of a re-accumulation phase," IT Tech, an analyst at CryptoQuant, predicted.

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Another interesting divergence is highlighted by Ecoinometrics. They noted that despite the narrative of a "risk-off" market with stocks selling off, there was a lack of selling pressure on individual stocks. Instead of panic-selling, investors were calmly rotating out of tech stocks and shifting towards other sectors.

This lack of selling urgency is evident in the low "365-day new lows" indicator for both the S&P500 and NASDAQ Indices. Both remained below 50 throughout April, indicating that a significant portion of stocks had not yet reached their lowest price point within the past year.

However, when looking at the "365-day new lows" indicator for the total altcoin market capitalization, there was a sharp increase to nearly 150 in March 2025. This signaled that a large number of altcoins had hit their lowest point within the year.

But in April, this indicator dropped back down to 50 as the total altcoin market capitalization fell further. This divergence usually indicates that the selling momentum is weakening and the market may be bottoming out.

In simpler terms, fewer altcoins hitting rock bottom means less panic-selling. It suggests that negative market sentiment is fading. At the same time, rising prices show renewed buying interest. These factors hint that altcoins may be gearing up for a recovery—or even an “altcoin season,” a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

This technical divergence on the Bitcoin Dominance chart (BTC.D) suggests that BTC.D might soon undergo a